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Embracing Exponential Change in Educational Technology: Insights and Future Predictions

This document explores the rapid evolution of technology in education, emphasizing key concepts such as Moore's Law and exponential change. It discusses the importance of predicting future trends through various extrapolation methods and highlights the role of organizations like CUE, ISTE, and AACE in shaping educational technology. Additionally, it delves into vision scenarios for learning spaces by 2020, soliciting insights from participants on how education could transform in the coming years. Collaboration and constructive feedback are encouraged in this dynamic learning environment.

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Embracing Exponential Change in Educational Technology: Insights and Future Predictions

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  1. Research, Development, & Evaluation of Technology

  2. But first... • Chip Bruce’s responses to some of your questions about the Bruce-Levin taxonomy • Barbara Miller’s transparencies

  3. With technology, change is the only constant • Moore’s Law: the number of transistors that can fit on a chip doubles every 18 months • Exponential changes: cost of a given computation drops in half every 18 months

  4. Need to predict change

  5. How to predict the future? • Extrapolation • The “same” extrapolation: the future will be like the past • Linear extrapolation: the change from last year to this will occur again between this year and next • More complex

  6. The “pipeline” of development

  7. Riding the “trailing edge” • Technology in education organizations • Technology in education conferences • Technology in education journals

  8. Organizations • CUE: Computer Using Educators • ISTE: International Society for Technology in Education • AACE: Association for the Advancement of Computing in Education • AERA: American Education Research Association

  9. Conferences • NECC • Ed-Media • CUE Conferences

  10. Journals • Practitioner • Learning & Leading with Technology • T.H.E. Journal • Research • Journal of Educational Computing Research • Journal of Research on Computing in Education • See list at http://www.ed.uiuc.edu/courses/edpsy490i/sp99/Journals.html

  11. “Vision” scenerios • The MBARI scenerio • Your vision: a day in the life of a learner in 2020

  12. Before next class • read “Learning Spaces in the Networld of Tomorrow: Future Learning Spaces: A VIP Experience at MBARI” http://www.iearn.org/webtour/2/intern.html • write up a brief "vision" of how education could/should operate in the year 2020 (as a web file) and submit the URL to TEbase

  13. Next class meeting • Wednesday, same time, same place • Office hour:4-5pm Wednesday

  14. During lab time • Respond to at least two progress reports by class members that don't already have two responses, giving constructive criticism.

  15. Break time! • Meet back here in 15 minutes:

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