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Beyond the Millenium

Beyond the Millenium. Networks, Computers, the Internet, & Conferencing Technologies. Andrew W. Davis Wainhouse Research. Network Technology. Overcapacity in the backbone leads to free bandwidth. Backbone Bandwidth. 40 TBS. Supply. 20 TBS. Demand. 5 TBS. 2004. 1999.

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Beyond the Millenium

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  1. Beyond the Millenium Networks, Computers, the Internet, & Conferencing Technologies Andrew W. Davis Wainhouse Research

  2. Network Technology • Overcapacity in the backbone leads to free bandwidth

  3. Backbone Bandwidth 40 TBS Supply 20 TBS Demand 5 TBS 2004 1999

  4. Network Technology • Overcapacity in the backbone leads to free bandwidth • Optical technology drops in price; brings access much closer to the endpoints: FTTN, FTTC, FTTH • Backbone capacity + telecommunications competition bring DSL and CM to wide-scale availability (3-10 Mbps for everyone, VDSL too) • Fixed IP addresses for everyone replace SSN (number portability)

  5. Network Technology • Wireless is everywhere (10 Mbps) • battery life is key restraint, limit to growth • Access becomes a commodity, money is in the applications • Network performance changes computing paradigm • “client-server” becomes “application hosting to browser device”

  6. Computers - 2005 • 4000 MHz Pentium-V = shipping desktop • (50% consumed by Windows 2005; 60% consumed by Office 2004) • Voice recognition user interface, especially popular on miniature machines, embedded devices • It’s a browser world

  7. Computers - 2005 • Embedded processors in everything, with embedded support for IP networking and web browsers • smart refrigerators that no-one will use • televisions that connect to everything, that children will use • cell phones for unified messaging, that middle management will use

  8. Consumer Internet Economy • Internet access is free, guaranteed by the 29th amendment to the US constitution and ruling by EEC • XML brings internet to next level • e-commerce, e-services, e-cash go everywhere • Interactive consumer (smart hotlinks, comparison shopping) • smart data base technology knows who you are, what consumer items you bought, what you watched on TV, which web sites you visited, etc…. New era in targeted marketing and advertising

  9. Enterprise Internet Economy(massive slaughter of cash cows) • e-commerce, e-services, e-cash • Internet + security replaces private networks • Web-based EDI (XML) • Disintermediation of distribution channel • agents, brokers, resellers, distributors are endangered species • Auction economy, customer is king, efficient world wide communications = low margins for everyone, low wages for most • Everything-technology is rented, pay as you go..

  10. Enterprise Internet Economy • Internet access will be free, ISPs disappear • Carriers give away voice services, eek out meager living on data • Massive databases and CPU horsepower make targeted marketing effective • web sites, streaming media services target increasingly narrow audiences, upheaval in “advertising economics”

  11. Conferencing • Cameras become standard on all monitors, laptops, and half of all cell phones -2005 • In 2005, it will still take 10 hours to travel door-to-door from Boston to meeting in LA. The airline food service will be worse than it is today, but you will enjoy built-in PCs so you can email while in-flight. • Work-at-home culture drives conferencing applications

  12. Final Thoughts • Entertainment • Education • News & Weather • Jobs • Healthcare • Business Cataclysm in the Physical World

  13. Final Thoughts • With changing economics, 24 x 7 workdays, never-ending access, focus will shift to quality -of-life for employees • low margins limit wages • corporate cost containment limits office expenses • more at-home workers • Conferencing technologies will play more important function

  14. Final Thoughts • The Internet is mutating too fast to predict where it will go • library  communications advertising e-commerce broadcasting • who would have predicted that in 1999 we would see full page newspaper ads, billboard ads and broadcast TV ads for websites • Internet economy will add value to “brands” • Internet mutation will create opportunities for many • Internet mutation will lead to demise of many

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