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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter. The CAFE baseline scenarios: Emission projections. Approach for baseline emission projections. Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000

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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter

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  1. M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Emission projections

  2. Approach for baseline emission projections • Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 • Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) • EU-wide scenarios and national projections • Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 • Taking account of international and national legislation

  3. Preparation of RAINS databases

  4. Bilateral consultations (1)

  5. Bilateral consultations (2)

  6. National inventory RAINS estimate RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 SO2 NOx VOC NH3

  7. Economic drivers for emission projections

  8. Projections of economic activitiesused for the CAFE baseline scenarios Energy • Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 €/t CO2) • Including national comments received after April • DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures) • National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures? Agriculture • DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform • National projections (10 countries)

  9. Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections

  10. New Member States EU-15 Kyoto target EU-15 Kyoto target EU-25 CO2 emissionsof the PRIMES projections [Mt] Withclimate measures No furtherclimatemeasures

  11. Energy Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Italy Portugal Slovenia Sweden UK Agriculture Austria Denmark France Ireland Italy Latvia Netherlands Portugal Slovenia UK National projectionsconsidered for the CAFE baseline

  12. CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000

  13. SO2 emissions

  14. Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes NEC emission ceiling SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt] NewMemberStates EU-15

  15. SO2 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

  16. Range of SO2 emission projections[kt] ----- EU-15----- New Member States---- Sea regions

  17. SO2 emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

  18. NOx emissions

  19. Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes NEC emission ceiling NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt] New MemberStates EU-15

  20. NOx emissions“With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

  21. NOx emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

  22. Range of NOx emission projections[kt] -----EU-15----- New Member States---- Sea regions

  23. NOx emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

  24. VOC emissions

  25. Power generation Industry Households Transport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt] New Member States EU-15

  26. VOC emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

  27. NH3 emissions

  28. Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes NEC emission ceiling NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt] NewMemberStates EU-15

  29. NH3 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings

  30. Primary PM emissions

  31. National inventory RAINS estimate RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000 PM10 PM2.5

  32. Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes NEC emission ceiling PM2.5 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt] NewMemberStates EU-15

  33. Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

  34. Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other Black carbon emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt] New Member States EU-15

  35. Conclusions • While accounting for continued economic growth … • National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45% • Due to structural changes and emission control legislation • Relevance of sectors for further measures will change. • Small combustion sources! • Industrial processes, solvents! • Off-road vehicles and machinery! • Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25

  36. The baseline scenario on the Web All country- and sector-specific results of the baseline scenarios are available at: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains

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