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New Hampshire Economic Outlook: What is the NH Advantage?. Ross Gittell James R Carter Professor Whittemore School of Business and Economics University of New Hampshire.
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James R Carter Professor
Whittemore School of Business and Economics
University of New Hampshire
Over the last decade NH ranks 11th of 50 states and 1st in Northeast in employment growth. NH has the 6th highest per capita income in the US (2003)
High Tech..1990s boom followed by bust and forecast of moderate growth. NH (in green) had greatest percent decline 2001-02 ..but “recovering” better than Mass
Educational attainment has a strong positive correlation with per capita income. The state’s economy benefits from an educational advantage which will have to be sustained to keep the economy strong
Also very strong correlation between education and income in NH Counties and bordering CountiesEducational advantage is the key to economic advantage
Leading Industry Clusters in the 10 NH counties. Listing all clusters that were leading in at least one county. Top 3 –contractors, L&H and Health Care are leading in most every county, FIRE only in one. …the lower the # in the cell the stronger the cluster in the county
New England Forecast .. moderated GSP (yellow) and Employment (green) and GSP growth compared to late 1990s… Employment ½ of 1990s (2% down to 1.1%) ..GSP growth down from 4.2 to 3.4 annually
Gross Product (Overall Output): Region will catch up and then surpass US overall growth rate..but not by as much as in the late 1990s. Growth in US will decline slightly 2004 to 2005
GSP Forecast..NH expected to have overall economic growth above the US average over the forecast period… Maine and Vermont with lowest overall growth in output
Total Employment Forecast..only NH (in green) expected to grow above US (red) rate..Mass expected to continue to grow below US average and lowest in region
New Hampshire in all “super sectors” is expected to grow employment at rate higher than regional and US average. In NH the strongest sectors are forecasted to be Prof. & Business Services followed by Leisure & Hospitality
Unemployment Forecast ..NH expected to have lowest unemployment, Mass one of the highest…NH unemployment Dec 2004, 3.3, compared to US, 5.4 and NH Dec 2003 of 4 percent