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Future Networks

ITU Regional Workshop on “ Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States ” (Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 ). Future Networks. John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com. Outline. Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside?

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Future Networks

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  1. ITU Regional Workshop on “Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States”(Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 ) Future Networks John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com

  2. Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future

  3. Fundamental Changes in Telecoms • Started with Telegraph • Data (Morse code)

  4. Fundamental Changes in Telecoms • Telegraph • Telephone • Manual to mechanical to software switching • Analog to TDM to IP

  5. Fundamental Changes in Telecoms • Telegraph • Telephone • Data • Circuit-based, non-switched • Packet data • IP

  6. Fundamental Changes in Telecoms • Telegraph • Telephone • Data • Internet and the WWW • IP

  7. Everything Over IP andIP Over Everything Any Service & Every Service Internet Protocol (IP) Any Transport & Every Transport Technology

  8. Telecommunications Industry: Constant Innovation VoIP and Converged Communications Wireless to WiMAX/4G/LTE Wireline to Wireless Copper to Fiber Change comes from disruption. And disruption is constant! Analog to Digital

  9. Discontinuities • Transition from Fixed to Mobile • Growth of fixed services slowing, turning negative • Mobile phone growth continues but levelling off due to market saturation

  10. Discontinuities Phone Network Data Network • Transition from Analog to Data • On circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice networks, data is handled by making it look like voice (modems) • On packet switched data networks, voice is handled by making it look like data (VoIP)

  11. Discontinuities and Convergence • … so we enlarged them to just about the right size. Once we just had a telephone on our desks. Then we added a computer mainframe terminal, but replaced that with a personal computer … … which became portable (laptop), … … we added wireless networking including voice, but we shrunk them a little too much …

  12. Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future

  13. Intelligence was centralized, but is it in the right place? • We began with human operators “inside the network” handling switching and services for “hard-wired” subscribers, … • ... “progressed” to analog mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ... • ... refined it with stored program control (#5 XBar, SP1), ...

  14. We continued with the assumption that terminals were “dumb” … • We converted from analog to digital transmission and switching. • We centralized network intelligence into with replicated islands of intelligence enabled by common channel signalling.

  15. … but ISDN and Mobilitychanged everything! • Suddenly terminals had to be able to do a great deal more: • A functional ISDN terminal is a de facto 2 line exchange! • Cellular networks added a new dimension to what terminals had to do: • Mobility!

  16. Evolution! “Bell-heads” “Net-heads” • We’ve gone from one extreme to the other: • Start: all intelligence in the network and none at the edges “dumb” terminals • Advances in technology enabled intelligence to migrate to terminals connected to a “dumb” network • Neither end of the pendulum swing is ideal …

  17. Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future

  18. ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks including Mobile and NGN • WP 5/13 Future Networks • Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN • Q.19/13 Distributed services networking (DSN) • Q.20/13 Public data networks • Q.21/13 Future networks • Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives and Design goals • Approved May 2011

  19. An overview…4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals 4 Objectives Realization Functions appropriate to service needs Huge volumes, widely distributed Energy efficient, recyclable materials; displace energy intensive activities Reduced barriers to entry, reduced life cycle costs • Service-awareness • Data-awareness • Environment-awareness • Social and economic awareness

  20. Relationship between Objectivesand Design Goals Fig. 1/Rec. Y.3001

  21. Future Networks – More on the 12 Design Goals • Service diversity • Functional flexibility • Virtualization of resources • Data access • Diverse traffic: a few bps to ≥Gbps; delay (in)tolerant; simple sensors to complex terminals • Agility in deploying new services • Efficiencies, commonalities • Very high capacity for consumer generated volume

  22. Future Networks – Design Goals • Energy consumption • Service universalization • Economic incentives • Network management • Full life cycle for equipment; lower energy technologies and conservation • Available to everyone • Competition through standards and open interfaces • Flexible, enough capacity, simple, self configuring

  23. Future Networks – Design Goals • Mobility • Optimization • Identification • Reliability and Security • Full mobility for large scale and high speed networks • Optimize capacity for service requirements • New schema for many more devices • Designed-in, including user privacy

  24. Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future

  25. Advances • 1889 to 1950 • Automobile • Refrigeration • Electricity • Telephone • 1950 to 2011 • Jet plane • Man on the moon • Computer • Internet • What advances will we make between today and 2072?

  26. Some Key Developments • Computing technology advances enable more powerful, faster computers • Today’s personal computer is yesterday’s super computer • Technology applied in handsets: as powerful as desktop PCs a few years ago

  27. Irreversible Changes Enterprise-Driven Hardware-Centric Wireline People to Machines Peripheral Security Proprietary Interfaces Consumer-Driven Software-Centric Wireless Machine to Machine Embedded Open (incl. Policy) Trusted Change is constant: adapt and adopt!

  28. Megatrends Wired Applications • Mega trends aredefining a new era: • Hyper-connectivity • Network-awareapplications andapplications-awarenetworks • True Broadband • Technology is all about enabling users to do what they want to do! Enterprise Carrier Infrastructure Wireless The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected!

  29. Hyperconnectivity Anything that can be usefully connected will be connected

  30. Communications-Enabled Applications • Reinvention of services and applications to support new levels of network-aware intelligence and an intuitive interaction experience • Achieve through advanced technology frameworks such as IMS and Services Oriented Architecture (SOA)

  31. True Broadband • The communications experience is so seamless that users no longer have to consider which technology is being used to make a connection. • Users simply communicate, anywhere, anytime from whichever device is most convenient. Most importantly, the broadband experience becomes so economical that the range of uses exceeds any experience of the past.

  32. Three Phases of M2M Services From T. Norp (TNO/KPN) presentation at ETSI M2M Workshop, 19-20 Oct 2010

  33. Machine Type Communications From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08) www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip “The Internet of Things” (2005) Disproportionate impact of data applications

  34. When Engineering Meets Medicine UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted) hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/ Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site: www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm An example of a new data application on a smart phone

  35. Advances • 1950 to 2011 • Jet plane • Man on the moon • Computer • Internet • 2011 to 2072 • Ubiquitous broadband • Hyperconnectivity • Internet of Things • Robotics

  36. In Closing: Some Quotations • “We always over-estimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years.” * • “When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” ** • “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” *** * Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation ** Yogi Berra, American baseball player *** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist

  37. Thank you for your attention! John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com

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