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THORPEX (THeObserving system Research and Predictability Experiment) was established in 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. THORPEX is part of the World Weather Research Programme, under the auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), and is a key research component of the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme.
What is THORPEX?
THORPEX is an international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy and utility of high-impact weather forecastsup to two weeks ahead.
TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a major element of the THORPEX research programme:
Enhancing collaboration on ensemble prediction, internationally and between operational centres and universities.
Supporting research on weather forecasting, especially applications of ensemble forecasting.
Enabling new probabilistic forecast products for a future Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS).
TIGGE has made it possible to construct a new ensemble, that is Multi-Center Grand Ensemble
EPS at CMA
EPS at ECMWF
EPS at JMA
EPS at KMA
EPS at XXX
Point Strike Probability
Track forecasts from ECMWF, JMA, MSC and NCEP are available as of today.
Red: 0-24h forecast
Green: 24-48h forecast
Purple: 48-72h forecast
Blue: 72-96h forecast
Track forecasts from CMA(ensemble size is 15), ECMWF(51), JMA Typhoon EPS(11), JMA One-week EPS (51), KMA(17), MSC(21), NCEP(21), STI(9) and UKMO(24) are available as of today.
Ensemble TC track forecast by all ensemble member of all centers.
(Ensemble TC track forecast by each center is also available)
Probability that the center of a storm will pass within 120 km of a location during a 96 hour time interval is shown. Contour levels shown are 5-20% (green), 20-40% (yellow), 40-60% (orange), 60-80% (red) and 80-100% (purple).
Time series of strike probability at a selected location (city). Y-axis on the left shows the strike probability at city ILAGAN, and the Y-axis on the right shows the distance between ILAGAN and a TC center.
Typhoon Megi initiated at 1200 UTC 25th Oct. 2010
Typhoon Conson initiated at 1200 UTC 12th Jul. 2010
It should be noted that even in the forecasts by all ensemble members of all ensemble prediction systems, several cases miss the best track scenario.
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Yamaguchi, M., Nakazawa, T. and Hoshino, S. (2012), On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138: 2019–2029.
Bougeault, Philippe, and Coauthors, 2010: The thorpex interactive grand global ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1059–1072.