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Urban Growth Models and UMT Development in Dar es Salaam: An Analytical Study

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This research explores the development of Urban Morphological Types (UMTs) according to urban growth models in Dar es Salaam (DSM), focusing on population dynamics and informal settlements. With estimates suggesting that 70-80% of the current population resides in informal areas, the study leverages modeling from Hill & Lindner (2010) to analyze two scenarios: a baseline extrapolating past growth dynamics, and a scenario incorporating three strategic infrastructure projects. The implications for urban expansion, particularly in the Kigamboni area, are assessed to understand the potential loss of green infrastructure and planned residential zones.

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Urban Growth Models and UMT Development in Dar es Salaam: An Analytical Study

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  1. Task overview Katja Buchta (M.Sc.)

  2. Research question • How do UMTs developaccordingto urban growthmodels? • Fornow: focus on Dar es Salaam (DSM)

  3. Background 2010: 3,349,000 Source: United Nations, Department ofEconomicandSocialAffairs. World UrbanizationProspects 2009

  4. Background • Estimatesforcurrentpopulationin informal settlementsvarybetween 70 – 80%. • Hill & Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growthunder rapid urbanisation in DSM.  useresultsas a basisforanalysingthe UMT development

  5. The model • 2 different scenarios (Hill & Lindner 2010): • „Baseline scenario“: extrapolatingthedynamicsbased on pastconditionsandbehaviour. • „Scenario IV“: thejointimplementationof 3 infrastructureprojects: I) establishmentof a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, II) constructionof a new ring road, III) Kigamboni Bridge construction. Usedclasses: plannedresidential, informal residential, other urban, vacant / agriculture (basis: 100 x 100m cells)

  6. Baseline scenario (2022) Scenario IV (2022) Combinedimplementationof 3 infra-structureprojects. Kigamboniareaas a potential hotspot of urban growth Urban developmentwithouttheinfluenceofanystrategicplanningmeasures.  Rapid expansionofthe urban fringes towardstheperiphery. Source: Hill & Lindner, 2010

  7. Approach • Combine UMTs (2008) withscenarios (2022) • Fishnetof 100 x 100m cells • allocate UMTs (2008) • Analyse changeof UMTs (2008) forthe 2 scenarios in 2022: • Which UMTs would „disappear“ togivewayforsettlementareas? • Evaluatethechange in respecttogreeninfrastructure

  8. Thankyou!

  9. References • Hill, A. & C. Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growthunder rapid urbanisation. A CA-based land-usesimulationmodelforthecityof Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. • United Nations, Department ofEconomicandSocialAffairs. World UrbanizationProspects2009 (http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/p2k0data.asp)

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