Wander Jager. An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision making: The Consumat II. Jacob van Ruisdael (1628/29–1682), Sailing Vessels in a Thunderstorm. Social Complex Systems. Ability to learn and adapt Communication is essential Forecast affects outcome.
An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision making: The Consumat II
Sometimes turbulent periods, where prediction is difficult, but management critical
Can help in understanding the dynamics of social environmental systems
May serve as a testbed for developing policy
Behaviour often is the cause but also the solution of problems
There is a need to include behaviour in environmental models that
- captures some essential behavioural processes
- connects behaviour with policy tools
- Developing valid rules for agent behaviour based on sound theory
NyOxt = Σ t..t=n f(t) * (UyOxt)
- NyOxt = Need satisfaction of need y (one of the three) for using opportunity Ox at the current time step t
- t..t=n is the time frame considered
- f(t) describes the decay function if decreased weighting of utility over time
- With whom: social networks, in- and outgoing influence
- How: observation, norms, information, various channels
- When: involvement, uncertainty, social relevant
Networks are critical, and can be seen as emerging from interactions.
Influencing processes in networks (management) requires an understanding of these interactions, and hence the communication between people
Emergent and dynamic networks based on similarity
Innovation theory is implicit: low importance social needs results in stronger tendency to try new behavioural options.
Heterogeneity in needs importance is relevant in describing different types of personalities and/or cultures
Simple set of rules that can be applied to many situations
A simulation model
parametrisized on the
basis of empirical
data to represent a
particular system, e.g
Each player is assigned a role (stakeholder), and faces the challenge to
reach his/her goal using available strategies
The Policy Community
Adaptive policy may help in preventing problems!