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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004

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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004. Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N). Regression analysis -using HadGEMs, MPI-ESMs, and GFDL-ESMs-. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM). Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004. Surface Temperature. D(0)JF(+1). MAM(+1). JJA(+1).

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Data: HadISST

Period: 1870-2004

Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N)

slide3
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide4
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide5
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide6
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide7
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide8
Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Tropical Region

Period: 1870-2004

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

MAM(+1)

JJA(+1)

slide9
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide10
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide11
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1)

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide12
Conclusions
  • Among all models, MPI’s models and GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO signals just like in the observations in their historical run.
  • It has shown in the observational reanalysis that the El Nino could cause stronger anticyclone over the western north Pacific which will ultimately lead to more precipitation over the East Asia in the next summer.
  • Especially, GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon relationship.
  • However, even the models known as good performances didn’t properly reproduce the ENSO-induced variability of the East Asia Summer Monsoon.
  • Hence, there’s still much to be examined and improved for those relationship.
slide16
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide17
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide18
East Asia

(90E-160E, 10N-60N)

Period: 1870-2004

Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Surface Temperature

D(0)JF(+1)

JJA(+1)

MAM(+1)

slide20
Data: HadISST

Period: 1870-2004

Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N)

1979-2004

slide21
Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Next Summer (JJA)

Precipitation(mmday-1)/Surface Wind (ms-1)

slide22
Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM)

Next Summer (JJA)

Surface Temperature

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