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Exploring Alternative Methods in Political Business Cycles Literature Analysis

Delve into various scholarly perspectives on Political Business Cycles (PBCs) and Economic Voting Theories (OETs) in this comprehensive literature review. Discover insights on manipulating policy tools, election timing dynamics, and voter behavior's correlation with the economy. Explore robustness challenges and political implications across different economic models and election forecasts.

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Exploring Alternative Methods in Political Business Cycles Literature Analysis

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  1. Literature What other scholars have to offer

  2. Alternative Methods • It's always good to check the robustness!

  3. Main Method • Bread and Peace (Hibbs)

  4. Alternatives • Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus) • Macroeconomy driven by elections • Manipulation by policy tools to boost chances • Endogenous election timing a function of economy (Berument)

  5. Alternatives • Econometrics and Presidential Elections (Fair) • Kramer: voter behavior depends on economy • Republican/Democrat • V= a1 + a2t + a3I+ a4DPER + a5g*I + a6p*I + u

  6. Alternatives • Time-for-Change Model (Abramowitz) • A referendum on the incumbent's performance • Robust results (2% margin for 2008) • Noneconomic (political) and economic variables

  7. Alternatives • Economics and Elections in W. Europe (Chappel, Veiga) • 13 countries 37 years • Political responsibility + economic perception

  8. Alternatives • Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts (Erikson, Wlezien) • Hibbsian

  9. Endogeneity/Exogeneity • Surfing on the cycles • Exogenous: create a cycle • Endogenous: surf a cycle • The effects of GDP Growth only

  10. The End of Economic Voting? • Check whether political responsibility is more important through the other theories.

  11. Some alternatives (PBCs and OETs) • Hibbs is generally accepted • Challenges to robustness • Political Implications

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