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Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board. Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services March 22, 2005. Outline. Purpose Issues Presentation of Briefing. Purpose.

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Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

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  1. Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 HurricanesA Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services March 22, 2005

  2. Outline • Purpose • Issues • Presentation of Briefing

  3. Purpose • Present an information briefing on the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season and discuss successes and opportunities for improvement

  4. Issues Opportunities for Improvement • Improving Intensity Forecasts • Communicating Uncertainty • Multi-model Ensembles (AKA super-ensembles)

  5. 2004 Hurricane Season Summary • NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. • Final season tally: 15 named tropical or subtropical storms with 9 hurricanes including 6 major hurricanes. • $45B in damages and 60 direct deaths in the U.S.

  6. 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season

  7. 2004 Highlights FloridaHurricanes Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne

  8. 2004 Highlights Inland Flooding from Hurricanes

  9. NHC Official Track Error Trend – Atlantic Basin

  10. President Bush Visit September 2004

  11. Hurricane Supplemental – Funding Summary

  12. Opportunities for Improvement • Super-ensembles can produce superior forecast guidance • FSU Super-ensemble • GFS • GFDL

  13. 2004 Track Guidance

  14. Opportunities for Improvement • Intensity forecasts • Charley is the example – fast intensification just before landfall

  15. NHC Official Intensity Error Trend – Atlantic Basin

  16. Opportunities for Improvement • Communicating Uncertainty • “Tampa, Tampa, Tampa” • 48-hour track error was 94 miles • Scope, pace, historical/forecasts, uncertainty of track, warnings/watches, inland/coasts

  17. Hurricane Charley

  18. Wrap-Up Great Team-NOAA Performance!

  19. NOAA Coordination & Views • NOAA-wide effort to improve

  20. Desired Outcomes • Discuss Opportunities for Improvement • Improving Intensity Forecasts • Communicating Uncertainty • Multi-model Ensembles

  21. Backup

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