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Climate challenges and bridging divides Karl Hausker, Ph.D. april 2019

Climate challenges and bridging divides Karl Hausker, Ph.D. april 2019 Senior Fellow. 2. OUTLINE. The mitigation challenge: the IPCC perspective Three strategies to transform the energy system The renewables revolution

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Climate challenges and bridging divides Karl Hausker, Ph.D. april 2019

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  1. Climate challenges and bridging divides Karl Hausker, Ph.D. april 2019 Senior Fellow

  2. 2 OUTLINE • The mitigation challenge: the IPCC perspective • Three strategies to transform the energy system • The renewables revolution • Bridging the divide: 100% renewable vs. 100% clean • The imperative of carbon dioxide removal • Key messages • Speed limit, weblinks, Q&A

  3. 3 ipcc report released in oct. 2018 lays out global pathways to a safe climate https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/

  4. 4 1.5ºC pathways require net-zero by mid-century 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Net Zero Emissions Illustrative pathways: P1, P2, P3, P4 2030 2050 2070 2090 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/

  5. 5 Three strategies to transform the energy system to zero-carbon http://riskybusiness.org/fromrisktoreturn/

  6. 6 THE Renewables revolution Dramatic cost decreases in wind and solar PV over the past 10 years Wind: 3 – 6 cents/kWh. Solar PV: 4 – 5 cents/kWh (Utility-Scale). Wind69% Solar88% 2.9-5.6 ¢/kWh 4.0-4.6 ¢/kWh Lazard’s LCOE Analysis, v.12.0, Nov. 2018, https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2018/

  7. Embracing 100% Renewables

  8. 8 1.5ºC pathways indicate renewable share of electricity generation of 63%-81% 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Net Zero Emissions %Renewable of elec. gen.: P1 – 77% P2 – 81% P3 – 63% P4 – 70% 2030 2050 2070 2090 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/

  9. 9 Latest 2050 scenario from irena • Generation mix: • 86% renewable (all) • 60% wind and solar • Nuclear generation continues at current levels • No CCS (but used in industry) https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/Global-energy-transformation-The-REmap-transition-pathway

  10. 10 modeling of u.s. in 2050: renewables become largest electricity source (50-75%)“Beyond XX% renewables, system costs increase sharply” • https://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/mid_century_strategy_report-final_red.pdf • www.riskybusiness.org/fromrisktoreturn/ • https://www.nrdc.org/resources/americas-clean-energy-frontier-pathway-safer-climate-future • https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/11/UCS-Deep-Decarbonization-working-paper.pdf?_ga=2.263568588.1974402731.1534852232-1981528426.1534852232

  11. 11 STUDY of “system lcoe”illustrative system with wind, solar, and storage See also: Hausker (2019), Betting on Climate Solutions, Kleinman Center, forthcoming Frew et al (2016) , https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/Others/16-Frew-Energy.pdf Sepulveda, N., Jenkins, J.D., et al. (2018), “The role of firm low-carbon resources in deep decarbonization of electric power systems,” Joule https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3015424

  12. 12 Need to bridge the divide 100% Renewable 100% Clean (zero/low carbon)

  13. 13 Need to bridge the divide 100% Renewable 100% Clean (zero/low carbon)

  14. 14 EXAMPLES OF Federal and state goals:100% renewable vs 100% clean 100% Clean 100% Renewable Federal State

  15. 15 UCS report cites value of existing nuclear plants Without policies to replace retired nuclear power generation with low-carbon energy technologies, utilities could turn to naturalgas and coal to fill the gap  could result in a 4 to 6 percent increase in US power sector emissions. Federal and state policies must properly value the climate benefits of all low carbon technologies. Financial support targeted specifically for existing nuclear plants must be coupled with strong consumer protections, stringent safety requirements, and investments in renewables and energy efficiency https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/11/Nuclear-Power-Dilemma-executive-summary.pdf

  16. 16 1.5ºC pathways require net-zero by mid-century 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Net Zero Emissions All pathways require Carbon Dioxide Removal 2030 2050 2070 2090 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/

  17. 17 Key messages • 100% renewables vs. 100% clean energy • 100% RE for corporate/city/other buyers is OK – an incremental boost to demand for RE – but should evolve to 100% CE • 100% RE requirement for a state or country poses challenges in terms of performance, reliability, cost. • A broad portfolio of zero-carbon electricity options is valuable from cost and risk management perspectives (“spread your chips”). • CCS for carbon dioxide removal is critical to meeting 1.5 or 2 degree goals. • Importance of RD&D programs with a broad portfolio. • An expanded transmission system is critical in any scenario. • Role of existing nuclear plants • Global perspectives – food for thought… • Nuclear power • CCS

  18. THANK YOU Karl HauskerSenior Fellowkhausker@wri.org

  19. 19 additional slides

  20. 20 Example of a 2050 electricity Generation mix: four scenarios, union of concerned scientists 90% emissions reduction. Renewables: 62%-75% Cleetus et al., US Power Sector in a Net Zero World, 2016

  21. 21 Short-term storage could balance daily variation in solar and wind, and the storage could be cycled nearly every day. Variable output:daily, seasonal, and“uh-oh’s”… “Dunkelflaute”dark doldrums Jacobson et al. 2015, Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes https://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15060

  22. 22 How much would storage cost? Assume long-term cost targets are met, i.e., capital cost of storage = $100/kwh Total U.S. consumption = 3,900 TWh 12 hours = 5.3 billion kWh. Cost = $530 billion 3 weeks = 230 billion kWh. Cost = $23 trillion Longer? https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2018/ee/c7ee03029k#!divAbstract

  23. 23 Ipcc four pathways: cumulative CO2 stored All sources: fossil (power and industry) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) P4 P3 P2 P1 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf Fig. 2.16

  24. 24 IPCC: Role of Ccs in industrial sector “CCS plays a major role in decarbonizing the industry sector in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, especially in industries with higher process emissions, such as cement, iron and steel industries.” “Given the projected long-lead times and need for technological innovation, early scale-up of industry-sector CCS is essential to achieving the stringent temperature target.” https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf p.140

  25. 25 Example of interplay of transmission, load-shifting, and storage in high re pathways Study by NREL researcher Modeled RPS of 20/40/60/80/100% Modeled 6 pathways with variations related to transmission expansion, growth in plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), and a path dependent feature. Two pathways labeled “Indep.” always had similar results, and assumed the current transmission system The other four pathways always had similar results. Estimated least cost mix, system costs, and “overgeneration”

  26. 26 Impacts of 20%-100% renewables Frew et al, Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future , 2016. https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/Others/16-Frew-Energy.pdf

  27. 27 Impacts of 20%-100% renewables - With current transmission system, costs and overgeneration escalate sharply as system reaches 60/80/100% renewables. - Storage costs drive up cost (batteries). Total system costs increase 4x. - to 80%, and then more than double. https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/Others/16-Frew-Energy.pdf

  28. 28 Impacts of 20%-100% renewables - With expanded transmission system, costs and overgen are roughly stable up to 60-80%, and then at 100%, system cost more than doubles and overgen. increases https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/Others/16-Frew-Energy.pdf

  29. 29 CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL OPTIONS Also at research stage: Enhanced weathering of rocks/minerals, and seawater capture https://www.wri.org/publication-series/carbonshot-creating-options-carbon-removal-scale-united-states

  30. 30 Near-term carbon dioxide removal policy needs Federal cross-cutting RD&D program Federal & state deployment-support policies Cross-cutting enabling investments in infrastructure and data systems Achieve synergies with CCS for electricity generation and industry

  31. 31 Pathway indicators: cO2, EneRGY demand, Renewables

  32. Pathway indicators: roles of renewables, nuclear, CCs *Non-biomass renewables

  33. 33 Pathway indicators: roles of CCS with natural gas and biomass “Labels indicating “Minor” or “Major” Roles are by WRI, not IPCC

  34. 34 The riddle of “cheap renewables” and “high system costs” Platt et al, Analyzing Energy Technologies and Policies Using DOSCOE, 2017.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3015424

  35. 35 TOTAL SYSTEM COSTS MINIMIZED BY DIVERSE PORTFOLIO Platt et al, Analyzing Energy Technologies and Policies Using DOSCOE, 2017.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3015424

  36. 36 IPCC four pathways and role of CCS • Major transformations needed in power, buildings, transport, industry • Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) needed via afforestation, BECCS, and/or other technologies and processes (e.g. Direct Air Capture and Storage – DACS) P1 P2 P3 P4 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf

  37. 37 Ipcc four pathways: Primary energy supply Renewables grow exponentially. CCS and nuclear play key roles. P1 and P2: global energy decreases from ~600 EJ/yr to ~400 EJ/yr by 2030P3: slight decrease by 2030; back to ~600 EJ/yr by 2050. P4: slow growth through 2050 P2 P3 P4 P1 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf Fig. 2.16

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