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Andrey Krivorotov, Ph.D. Secretary of the Board, Corporate and Public relations Manager, Shtokman Development AG, Moscow. PERSPECTIVES OF ARCTIC OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION. NRCC-FIBA Networking Meeting in Murmansk, June 19, 2014. ohyu.

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  1. Andrey Krivorotov, Ph.D. Secretary of the Board, Corporate and Public relations Manager, Shtokman Development AG, Moscow PERSPECTIVES OF ARCTIC OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION NRCC-FIBA Networking Meeting in Murmansk, June 19, 2014 ohyu

  2. Arctic shelf development: global trends • 2009-2014: • Policy approaches fixed in national Arctic strategy documents • Illulissat Declaration state UNCLOS priority in the Arctic • Global oil and (specially) gas prices fall • Macondo disaster raise public awareness of the HSE risks • Competing shale and offshore basins emerge • Moderate scenarios for Arctic development • Interstate conflicts unikely • 2003-2009: • Growing policy attention to High North – worldwide • Legal status of the Arctic not exactly settled • World oil&gas prices grow steadily • Public reaction largely neutral/positive • Burst of breakthrough offshore technologies • ‘Arctic oil race’ scenarios • Presumed risk of interstate conflicts Policy-makers still retain interest to the Arctic shelf, but both investors and national governments pursue increasingly realistic and moderate approaches

  3. Global Arctic shelf slowdown • Revolution in offshore technologies continues, but still no holistic solutions tailored for the Arctic climate • Slump in the US and Western Europe which had been target markets for Arctic gas • Growing interest of non-Arctic nations raise concern in the region USA: No Shell drillings in Beaufort and Chukchi Seas in 2012 and 2013 WEST GREENLAND: - Non-commercial gas find only - Licensing round delayed CANADA: No petroleum activities in Arctic shelf RUSSIA: Yamal LNG FID postponed by a year NORWAY: - No Snøvit Train 2 - No Johan Castberg - No Lofoten-Vesterålen drilling RUSSIA: Shtokman field lag behind A whole array of Arctic offshore projects have been postponed or put on hold

  4. CHINA: The New Arctic Player Isua COSCO ship on NSR Elkem Yamal LNG Power of Siberia Norwegian ore to China,2012

  5. Russia and Norway: th most activоживление на шельфе • Developing Arctic offshore enjoys high political priority RUSSIA: • Arctic Zone Strategy (2013) and Long-Term Program (2014) • Massive legal amendments in 2013 bridge several law gaps • Heavy tax relief to Arctic oil&gas projects • 2010 Murmansk Treaty changes the scene • Several fields are (being) put onstream • Joint projects in the Barents Sea • Northern Sea Route – common interest and gains • Industrial cooperation: good experience despite bureaucratic redtape Arctic seas are becoming a producing province

  6. Russia and Norway: Changing Barents Sea landscape Now 2003 Russia and Norway pursue similar policy goals but apply different aproaches

  7. Transboundary petroleum supply cooperation to spur regional development LEGEND: Resources Supply Regional spin-offs

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