1 / 24

Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL – tracking does matter…

Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL – tracking does matter…. Mike Fiorino michael.fiorino@noaa.gov Assimilation and Modeling Branch Global Systems Division Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO 4 May 2009. TC diagnostics….

duncan
Download Presentation

Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL – tracking does matter…

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL – tracking does matter… Mike Fiorino michael.fiorino@noaa.gov Assimilation and Modeling Branch Global Systems Division Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO 4 May 2009

  2. TC diagnostics… • good tropicals = good tropics – good tropics = good models… • tctrack – where’s the storms? • tcstruct – sfc wind structure • tcfilt – kurihara et al ‘vortectomy’ • tromboning & windshield wipering • run-to-run consistency – model v ofcl • rehosting of .F diagnostic routines as openGrADS ‘user defined extensions’

  3. SHEM 2009 – 46% below normal activity

  4. % improve ECMWF over CON http://ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf SHEM 2009

  5. 01W – kujira – 2009050406

  6. 2009050400 – FIM (GFS) sfc wind anal τ=0

  7. verification – 72 h fc v an

  8. tcww3 – php interface to NRL graphics

  9. Sig Wave z – NOGAPS + JTWC TC

  10. GFS 2009050400 72-h fc v an – formation

  11. FIM8 (dx~30km) fc v an -- formation

  12. ECMWF (awips) fc v an – formation

  13. tcstruct – GFS sfc forecast

  14. run-to-run consistency

  15. tcstuct – radial wind profiles

  16. tcfilt – “vortectomy”

  17. tcfilt – kurihara et al 1993

  18. TC tracking – constraints • make a forecast • track the tropical (low failure rate) • represent the operational definition of the center… • multiple centers • wind v mass • mid v low

  19. ECMWF 2008 LANT mf v ec v tm trackers

  20. % gain(loss) mf v tm tracker – GFS 2008 LANT

  21. implementation of .F TC diag • openGrADS2.0 and 1.10 user-defined extensions in the form of a library  write separate application or run in grads • user-defined commands: • mfhilo – find max/min using three methods • tcprop -- averaging in annulus • user-defined functions • smth2d – Shuman 2-D smoother-desmoother • fish – Ψ / Χ • uv2vt – u,v (cart)  u,v (cylindrical)

  22. mfhilo/tcprop for 01W 2009050212

  23. Future directions… • why ECMWF doing so well vis-à-vis CON • diagnostics of conv precip – comp to CPC QMORPH satellite precip • FIM model experiments with conv physics (Grell) • tracking diagnostics • sfc center • upper trop lows – wv imagery • rehost other .F…

  24. upper-level flow 2009050400

More Related