Announcements • Be Familiar with Tunnell Paper • Be Familiar with 2003 CEASEFIRE Study • Exchange Papers/ give to me Friday • Read Pages 138-168
Rational Choice Theory • Deterrence Theory is Crime or Event Based • Rational Choice Theory is based on Economics
Rational Choice Theory • Expected Utility, a principal of economic theory • MAXIMIZE PROFITS • MINIMIZE LOSSES
Rational Choice • Beyond Probation • Fear that the Criminal Justice System cannot protect the Public
Rational Choice What affects “expected utility?” 1. Probability of arrest/conviction 2. Severity of punishment 3. “Other variables” a. Income available in legal or illegal activities b. Willingness to commit an illegal act c. Intelligence, age, education, family upbringing….
Rational Choice Rational Calculation of Pleasure vs Pain Do the benefits of this crime outweigh what I am going to get?
In Support of Rational Choice • White Collar Crimes • Criminal Conspiracies
Burglary And Rational Choice • Time of Commission • What Time do Burglars work? • What days? • Where do they work?
Rational Choice Tunnell • Tunnell “ The Motivation to Commit Property Crime” • 53 out of 60, 88% reported that money was the motivating factor • 3 of 60 reported a sense of accomplishment • 2 Reported crime as “sporting” • 2 reported vengeance
Evaluating Rational Choice Empirical Support? Policy Implication?
Rational Choice • Example of factors that explain initial involvement in crime : Background Factors Previous experience Solutions evaluated
Project CEASEFIRE • Study Completed By University of Missori, Kansas • Focused Deterrence
Project CEASEFIRE • 47% Felons Said it Affected Whether they would carry a Gun • 2% Reduction of Gun Crimes by Felons • In Kansas City, Kansas 7% reduction
Routine Activities • A Personal or Property crime Requires • Perpetrator • Victim • Object of property
Routine Activities Variables • Motivated Offenders • Suitable Targets • Capable Guardians
The Criminal Event • Focus on predictors of specific crimes, look at immediate (situational) factors • Area • Easily accessible, few police patrols, low security • Home
Motivated offenders taken for granted Assumption is that they are always present
Lack of Capable Guardianship • Strength in numbers • Protection from police • Less emphasis in this over time • Informal social control • Time spent at home
Suitable Targets • Value ($, ability to fence) • Visibility (sights and sounds) • Accessibility (why autos are victimized) • Weight and Mobility (high tech movement)
Anatomy of a Fight Peacemakers Audience !!!! Likely combatants troublemakers Drunk Males
1. Opportunities play a role in causing all crime 2. Crime opportunities are highly specific 3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and space 4. Crime opportunities depend on everyday movements of activity 5. One crime produces opportunities for another 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities 8. Crime can be prevented by reducing opportunities 9. Reducing opportunities does not usually displace crime 10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime
Opportunities play a role in causing all crime • Not Just Property Crime
Crime opportunities are highly specific • Different Crimes Require Different Patterns of Opportunities
Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and space • Information Valuable to Crime Mapping
One crime produces opportunities for another • Secondary Crime Scenes
Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities • High Value, Low inertia
Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities • No one wants an LED calculator anymore
Reducing opportunities does not usually displace crime • No Displacement is Complete
Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime • Offenders Usually Overestimate the Crime Prevention Measures
Why Crime and Crime Opportunities are not Evenly Distributed • Many people and things are not suitable targets for criminal attack. • Many locations are unfavorable for crime to occur. • A given location may be ideal for crime at one time but unfavorable for crime at another. • Those who would discourage crime from happening, such as homeowners, concierges, receptionists, or security guards, cannot be everywhere. • Nor can the most likely offenders be everywhere.
Phone booth vandalism Cash theft from public phones Theft of cellular phones Obscene and threatening calls Improved design and sighting Phones programmed for one user Caller ID devices Crime Prevention Methods
Policy Implications • Increase the Perceived Effort • Increase the Perceived Risks • Decrease the Anticipated Rewards • Remove Reasons or Excuses for Crime
Perceived Effort Reduction • Harden Targets • Control Access • Deflect Opportunists • Control Crime Facilitators
Perceived Risk Increase • Surveillance • Formal • Informal • Change Architecture and Traffic ability • Monitor Access
Decrease Anticipated Rewards • Serialized Parts • Phone Access Numbers • Removable Faceplates • Plastic Silverware, beer mugs
Remove Excuses For Crime • Hotel Registration • Display of Identification • Minimum Age Drinking
Policy Implications • Physical Crime Prevention • Target Hardening • Construction • Strength in Number • Defensible Space • Criminal Hot Spots as convergence of three elements