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The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011. Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011.

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the european union s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post soviet space

The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space

Marco Siddi

EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

protracted conflicts in the eu s neighbourhood
Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011

4 protracted conflicts
4 protracted conflicts
  • Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria
  • De facto states: sovereignty, no international recognition
  • ‘Parent states’ and ‘patron states’
  • Start: collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-1992)
  • Ethnic conflicts, except Transnistria
  • Current state

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

abkhazia and south ossetia
Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

nagorno karabakh
Nagorno-Karabakh

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

transnistria
Transnistria

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

geopolitical context
Geopolitical context
  • Russia:

post-Soviet space/limit Western influence

control of Black Sea

security dilemma in the Caucasus

  • EU:

energy security

stability and security in the neighbourhood

Relevance of Kosovo precedent

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

eu s involvement
EU’s involvement
  • 1998-9: bilateral PCAs
  • 2003-5: EUSRs for South Caucasus and Moldova
  • 2004-6: ENP and bilateral Action Plans
  • Civilian missions: EUBAM Moldova (2005), EUMM Georgia (2008)
  • Mediation in August 2008 crisis, co-chair of Geneva talks

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

the eu in georgia
The EU in Georgia

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

the eu in moldova
The EU in Moldova

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

eu s involvement problems
EU’s involvement: problems
  • Low profile, no coherent strategy (i.e. vis-à-vis Armenia and Azerbaijan)
  • ENP review: no news
  • Current restructuring: EUSRs
  • No military/economic access to de facto states
  • Out of OSCE Minsk Group on N-K, only observer in 5+2 format on Transnistria

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

conclusion
Conclusion
  • The EU plays a marginal role
  • EU « reactive » rather than « proactive » (i.e. no peace plan proposal)
  • Shortcomings of inflexible non-recognition policy
  • Actors: EU or member states?
  • Lack of a coherent strategy – no change in the foreseeable future

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

thanks very much for your attention

Thanks very much for your attention!

Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011