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Massimo Pica Ciamarra

Massimo Pica Ciamarra. Antonio Coniglio. Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche Università di Napoli Federico II Crdc-AMRA. Morphology of urban conglomerations: experimental and theoretical modeling, and implications for everyday traffic. Physics and the city, Bologna, 15 Dic. 2005. Outline.

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Massimo Pica Ciamarra

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  1. Massimo Pica Ciamarra Antonio Coniglio Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche Università di Napoli Federico II Crdc-AMRA Morphology of urban conglomerations:experimental and theoretical modeling, and implications for everyday traffic Physics and the city, Bologna, 15 Dic. 2005

  2. Outline Motivation Urban morphology: empirical analysis theoretical modeling Evacuation Conclusions

  3. Mt. Vesuvius Eruption forecast -1980 Mt. St. Elena 24 h - 1991 Mt. Pinatubo 48 h - 1996 Mt. Ruapehu 6 days - ??? Mt. Vesuvius 14 days Mt. Vesuvius Population: 500.000 Ercolano Mt. Vesuvius estimate: 14 days Naples Pompei People to be evacuated: 500.000

  4. Evacuation time Numbers • People: 500.000 • Safety distance: d = 50 Km Evacuation time v = 4 Km/h T = 12h 30m v = 40 Km/h T = 1h 15m yes no v = 20 Km/h T = 2h 30m ? Congestion ?

  5. The road network: Rome 20 Km 1.5 Km 20 Km

  6. # black pixels  = # pixels A grid element Maps: www.maporama.com 1px = 2 m2 Via Nazionale P.za Navona Via del Corso 1.1 Km P.za Venezia Campidoglio 1.5 Km

  7. Andamento di (r) per la città di Roma 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 40 30 20 10

  8. Cluster growth: background Diffusion-Limited Aggregate Eden Model r M. Eden, Proc. 4° Berkeley Symp. On Mat. Stat. and Probability, Univ. California. Press, (1961). J.D. Weeks et. al., J. Chem. Phys. 65, 712 (1976). L. Benguigui, Physica A 219, 13 (1995). DLA: T.A. Witten and L.M. Sander, Phys. Rev. Lett. 47, 1400 (1981). M. Batty and P. Longley, Area 19, 215 (1987); M. Batty and P. Longley, Env. and Planning B 14, 123 (1987). M. Batty et. al., Env. and Planning A 21, 1447 (1989).

  9. random walk with a drift Mean: St. Dev.: 2: Random walk cluster growth model Assumptions: 3: 1:

  10. Growth probability Probability of building a city unit in a point at a distance r form the center

  11. Radial density

  12. 0.3 20 0.25 0.2 10 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 40 20 30 10 Evacuation and bottlenecks: Rome expansion compression expansion

  13. Optimization of the evacuation process One entry ? Two entries ?

  14. Entry ramps Simulation with the Extended Nagel - Schreckenberg model Qexit = Qupstream + Qin Knospe et. al., Phys. Rev. E 70, 016115 (2004). Qupstream Qexit Qin p Entry ramp model If we can insert a car in the main flow without causing accidents We insert the car with probability p p = 0: cars are never inserted p = 1: a car is inserted as soon as possible Qexit = Q(p1,…,pn) M. Pica Ciamarra, Phys. Rev. E 72, 066102, (2005).

  15. 1 1600 1200 p2 800 400 0.5 0 Max: (p1, p2)  (0.35,0.5) Q1 900 cars/h 0 Q2 700 cars/h 0.5 0 1 p1 Example: two entries – two lane road Q (cars/h)

  16. Conclusions 1. Morphology of a city Empirical study of digital maps (resolution: 2m2) Simple model of cluster growth (anal. solvable) Universality - Bottlenecks 2. Optimization of on-ramp entries Simulation of the extended Nagel-Schreckenberg model Control of the flux of entering cars

  17. O posteri, o posteri si tratta di voi un giorno è lume all'altro e il dì precedente è norma per il dì che segue udite venti volte da che splende il sole se non sbaglia la storia arse il Vesuvio. Sempre con strage immane di chi a fuggir fu lento. Affinché dopo l'ultimo lutto più non vi colpisca io vi avviso. Questo monte ha greve il seno di bitume, allume, zolfo, oro, argento, nitro, di fonte d'acque. Presto o tardi si accende ma prima geme trema, scuote il suolo mescola e fumo e fiamme e lampi scuote l'aria, rimbomba, tuona, muggisce scaccia ai confini gli abitanti. Tu scappa finché lo puoi. Ecco che scoppia e vomita di fuoco un fiume che vien giù precipitando e sbarra la fuga a chi s'attarda se ti coglie e' finita: sei morto disprezzato apprese gli incauti e gli avidi cui la casa e le suppellettili furono più care della vita. Ma tu, se hai senno, di un marmo che ti parla di la voce non ti curar dei lari; senza indugi fuggi. E. Fonseca y Zunica, Vicerè (1632)

  18. Radial density (r) Round cities y r x

  19. Volcanic Hazards: A Sourcebook on the Effects of Eruptions, Russell J. Blong (Academic Press, 1984).

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