Services 2020

1. Services 2020 Dr. Jason Tuell Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services

2. NWS Strategic Plan Vision Keep Americans safe, healthy, and productive by delivering trusted weather, water, and climate information Mission Provide weather, water and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy

3. NWS Strategic Plan Goals • Improve weather decision services for events that threaten safety, health, the environment, economic productivity, or homeland security • Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of Nation’s water supply • Enhance climate services to help communities, businesses, and governments understand and adapt to climate related risks • Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity • Enable integrated environmental services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems • Sustain a highly-skilled, professional workforce equipped with the training, tools, and infrastructure to meet our mission

4. Services Roadmap Programming & Budgeting NOAA Strategic Plan NWS Strategic Plan S&T Roadmap • Services align through the Strategic Plans • Push-Pull relationship between services and S&T Strategic Framework • Services align through the Strategic Plans • Push-Pull relationship between services and S&T

5. Services Roadmap We support decisions with forecasts, warnings & environmental information • Data • Forecasts • Warnings • Rigid & rule based thresholds 2020 We issue forecasts & warnings to support decisions 2015 2010 • Real Impacts on Life • Relevant to Decisions • Enabling Decisions Impact Based Decision Support Services (IDSS)

6. Services 2020Impact-based Forecasts and Decision Support Services • “High Impact” is different for every user • Changes with locality, time and proximity • NWS definition of warning is too narrow…. • Forecasts that • Are clear, concise and intuitive • Convey uncertainty as required by users • Are increasingly collaborative • Provide information that can be exploited by others Translates our best science & expertise to sustained societal benefits

7. Integrated Environmental Services& Deepwater Horizon NESDIS, imagery, data and analysis tools Wellhead surface location NWS Marine and Tropical Cyclone Forecasts NWS, NOS/NMFS oil trajectory modeling Fish & Shellfish Sediment & Habitat, Deep sea Corals Marine spp. NOS/NMFS Resource Management Waves & QPF Currents Water Levels NMFS, NOS, NESDISProtected Areas Ecosystem Stewardship NWS, NOS, Ocean, Coastal and Marine Monitoring, Mapping and Prediction

8. What is the Services 2020 Roadmap? • A way to embrace the organizational change that IS coming (Not IF but WHEN) • Translating emerging needs and internal requirements • An opportunity for evolving expertise to embrace integrated services S2020 defines the path to future operations from a service perspective!

9. Services 2020Transformational Concepts • 4D environmental data cube and web services for IDSS • Common operating picture for all users and services • Challenge of adding value to gridded information in the face of shrinking production cycles • Blurring of line between forecasts and warnings

10. Services 2020Shift in Operational Focus Decision Support Scientific Interpretation Level of Effort Drawing/Writing/Editing Now 2020

11. Services 2020Surface Transportation • Safety • 1.57M weather-related crashes/yr • 690,000 injuries/yr • 7,400 fatalities/yr • Mobility • Cost of congestion is $9.45B/yr (for 85 urban areas) • Causes 25% of non-recurrent delay on freeways • Productivity • Weather-related delay adds $3.4B/yr to freight costs The Road Weather Challenge Annually Based upon 10 year averages Sources: NOAA/NWS, USDOT/FHWA

12. Integrated Services • Many new and enhanced services will require • Outside expertise: USGS, CDC, Forest Service, Interior, Agriculture, other NOAA line offices • Integration of air, weather, water, and climate data with non-traditional data sets • Collaboration with Partners • New services that require outside expertise • Public Health • Ecosystems • Renewable Energy Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007

13. Roadmap ConstructionA Phased Approach Three Phases 1: Services Definition 2: Service Operations 3: Implementation Plan

14. How we are going to get there? • Complete Service 2020 Roadmap and detailed implementation plan • Leverage recommendations from MIC-HIC conference to build momentum • Can be initiated immediately • Can be executed within existing (or with limited additional) resources • Will move us towards our strategic goals • Principles for going forward: • Develop pilot projects for selected actions • Partner with NWSEO on all actions

15. Services 2020 & the Partners • Increased collaborative activities – sharing forecasts and data • Collaborative forecasts building on Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and surface transportation project in Salt Lake City • New areas for collaboration • Private weather enterprise participation will be crucial to delivering new services to sector users • Engage the private sector!

16. Questions?

17. Final Thoughts • Services Roadmap defines the direction of the NWS • Paradigm shift to Impact-based Decision Support Services • Collaboration with the Partners will be essential to maximizing value to America