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Integrating Climate Science and Policy ( A New Geographer’s Perspectives)

Integrating Climate Science and Policy ( A New Geographer’s Perspectives). Christopher G. Fletcher Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change ( IC 3 ), Dept. of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. In the spirit of “Toward Integration”.

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Integrating Climate Science and Policy ( A New Geographer’s Perspectives)

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  1. Integrating Climate Science and Policy(A New Geographer’s Perspectives) Christopher G. Fletcher Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3), Dept. of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Christopher G. Fletcher, Canadian Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, May 30, 2012, Waterloo, ON.

  2. In the spirit of “Toward Integration”... • So many aspects of climate science have policy relevance, and so many policy decisions will impact climate either directly or indirectly, that an integrated research approach is essential. • Geographers are uniquely placed to lead in this area, by seamlessly bridging the intellectual, cultural and language divides that have previously hindered the integration of science and policy. Christopher G. Fletcher, Canadian Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, May 30, 2012, Waterloo, ON.

  3. Adapted from Somerville and Hassol, 2011

  4. Part I:How policy can impact climate

  5. Aerosols ✗

  6. Hazy Sky Clear Sky Clouds Clear Sky Hazy Sky SUN SUN SURFACE SURFACE

  7. IPCCAR4SPM, 2007

  8. HadCRUT, Jones et al. 2012 Global average surface temperature anomalies (oC) 380 CO2 (ppmv) 280 3x SO4loading 1x

  9. SO4loading Meehl et al., 2012

  10. CO2 SO4 a. Strong Aerosol Cooling Temperature b. Weak Aerosol Cooling

  11. Part II:How climate can impact policy

  12. IPCCAR4SPM, 2007

  13. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) http://www.earthtimes.org/enviro-image/images/illustration409420aa_2.jpg Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

  14. We already know this will work AEROSOL TEMPERATURE Mount Pinatubo eruption June 12, 1991.

  15. How? And, how much? • Current best estimate to offset a global CO2concentration of 560ppm is around $1 Bn/yr with a fleet of around 30 aircraft [For comparison: Government of Canada spends 2 Bn/yr on the environment, 5 Bn/yr on education, and 20 Bn/yr on the military]

  16. Not so fast! (A few “minor” problems…) • Climate consequences • Global mean temperature cools, but what about regional temperatures and precipitation (e.g. monsoons)? • Ocean acidification: CO2 will still be in atmosphere. • Fainter sun = potentially significant change for all life that depends on it.

  17. Not so fast! (A few “minor” problems…) • Policy/Governance issues: • Will even talking about SRM reduce motivation to mitigate? • Who will get to “control” the climate, and what will the global thermostat be set to? • What is the goal? Should we aim to create the most comfortable climate for the most people?

  18. What would you do? • The technology for SRM exists today, it would very likely be able to reduce global mean temperatures, and it would be relatively cheap to do. • However, potentially catastrophic consequences for the climate system, and complex policy and governance considerations, make SRM a very risky solution. • Only an integrated research and decision-making approach can address these types of challenges.

  19. IPCCAR4SPM, 2007

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