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Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment . Presented by Samir KC 1 Contributors: Bilal Barakat 1,2 , Anne Goujon 1,2 , Wolfgang Lutz 1,2 , Warren Sanderson 1,3 , Vegard Skirbekk 1.

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population projections back and forward by age sex and educational attainment

Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment

Presented by Samir KC1

Contributors: Bilal Barakat1,2, Anne Goujon1,2, Wolfgang Lutz1,2, Warren Sanderson1,3, Vegard Skirbekk1

1 IIASA World Population Program, Laxenburg, Austria; 2Vienna Institute for Demography, Vienna, Austria ; 3Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA 

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • Need for Population Projections by education
  • Our Approach
  • Applications
need for population projections by age sex and educational attainment
Need for population projections by age, sex and educational attainment
  • Changing definition of education categories in national time series
    • Standardization needed
    • Categories based on ISCED
  • Absence of time series data by age and sex
  • Education being an important explanatory variable in many processes
    • fertility, mortality, migration, vulnerability analysis, conflict, ….
  • Future planning, target setting (MDG, EFA) etc….
reconstruction of past education distribution by age and sex
Reconstruction of past education distribution by age and sex
  • Start with 2000 distribution as base year
    • 5 yearly age groups
    • Males/Females
    • 4 education categories
      • Less than one year of Primary education
      • More than one year of Primary education
      • Completed lower secondary education
      • Completed first level of tertiary education
  • Move backwards
    • 5 year step
    • With differential mortality and migration
      • Positive Correlation between life expectancy and educational attainment
      • At age 15: a difference of 5 years
    • Demographic Multi-state Cohort Component Method used
      • Four states of education with backward education transitions from higher level to lower level
      • Moving backward along cohort line
    • Matching Population Distribution with the UNPD’s estimates
  • Same starting distribution
  • 2005 – 2050
  • Future Demographic Trajectories
    • UNPD – World Population Prospects 2006
    • Eurostat
    • Own Estimates for few non European low fertility countries
  • Future Education Trajectories
    • Baseline – Global Education Trend Scenario
    • Other scenarios ranges from
      • Most rapid educational expansion – Fast Track Scenario
      • Assumptions of constant enrollment ratios and numbers
  • Multi-state
    • Transition between different levels of education
  • Cohort Component method
    • Projections along cohort lines
  • 123 countries of the world
global education trend scenario
Global Education Trend Scenario
  • Baseline Trend, Business as Usual etc.
  • Based on the past education trend
    • All countries pooled together
    • Fitted using cubic spline
  • General trend of improvement
  • Plausible medium-term scenario
mortality differentials
Mortality Differentials
  • Life expectancy at age 15
    • 5 years difference between the tertiary educated and those with no formal education
  • Migration
    • Net Migration (WPP 2006)
    • Own calculation – age-sex distribution
    • By education
      • Negative Net migration – sending country’s distribution
      • Positive Net migration – pool of all sending countries’ distribution
using the data
Using the data
  • Economic analysis: Human Capital and Economic Growth – (Lutz et al, 2008 in Science; Sanderson and Striessnig, 2009)
  • Analysis of Youth Bulges and Conflict (Barakat & Urdal, 2008)
  • OECD: Projected tertiary educated population in 2030 in a selected number of non-OECD countries.
  • Eberstadt, Nicholas: Economic Outlook for Central Asian states, China, Russia, Iran, Turkey.
using the data29
Using the data
  • Estimating effects of educational attainment on economic growth
  • Improving economic growth forecasts by assessing the interactions between education and demographic trends
  • Studying the effect of human capital on health indicators
  • Assessing the effects of education on democratization processes and politicalinstitutions
possible uses
Possible Uses
  • Check feasibility of international education targets
  • Analyze the role of education in:
    • Adaptive capacity to environmental disaster
    • Vulnerability analysis
future plans
Future plans
  • Country or Region specific differentials
  • Country or Region specific Education Scenarios
  • Adding more countries
  • Link education and disability (health) status for projections
  • Link education and place of residence (urban/rural) status for projections