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Support for Budget, Tax and Social Welfare Programs. The Political Environment. Party Identification: The Rise of Independents. The Gender Gap: Female Versus Male Voters. Public Opinion: The Important Issues. The Problem with Polls. Low Level of Public Knowledge Often Inconsistent in views
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Support for Budget, Tax and Social Welfare Programs The Political Environment
The Problem with Polls • Low Level of Public Knowledge • Often Inconsistent in views • Small changes in the way a question is worded can produce significant changes in reported opinions.
Even though it is still a long way off, thinking about the campaign for the presidential election in 2012, what two issues would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about? (open-ended) Economy and Jobs Dominate Voters’ Top Issues for Presidential Campaign AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS Economy/Jobs Health care Debt/Deficit War in Afghanistan/Military issues Education Immigration Taxes Gas prices Note: Only responses of 5 percent or more shown. Percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted June 9-14, 2011)
Majority Expresses Little or No Trust in Super Committee How much do you trust each of the following to make the right recommendations about ways to reduce the federal budget deficit? A great deal A fair amount Just a little Not at all President Obama Democrats in Congress The bipartisan super committee Republicans in Congress Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)
Majority Not Confident Super Committee Will Deliver a Passable Proposal How confident are you that the super committee will be able to come up with a proposal to cut $1.2 trillion from the federal deficit before the November deadline? How likely do you think it is that the super committee will be able to come up with a proposal that will get enough support from both parties in Congress in order to pass? Very confident Very likely Not at all likely Not at all confident Somewhat confident Somewhat likely Not too likely Not too confident 2% Don’t know/Refused 2% Don’t know/Refused Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)
Most See Role For Tax Increases And Spending Reductions In Super Committee Plan Thinking about different approaches the super committee might recommend to reduce the federal budget deficit, I’d like to know how big a role you think each of the following should play in an overall deficit reduction strategy. Major role Minor role No role at all Closing tax loopholes for wealthy Americans Closing tax loopholes for large businesses Repealing the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans Increasing taxes for wealthy Americans Reducing spending on government programs and services Repealing the Bush tax cuts for all Americans Increasing taxes for all Americans Note: Various items asked of half sample. Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)
Partisan Division Over How to Tackle Deficit Which of the following would you prefer to see Congress do about the federal budget deficit? Attempt to reduce deficit mainly by REDUCING SPENDING on government programs and services Attempt to reduce deficit mainly through INCREASING TAXES NOT TAKE ANY ACTION to reduce deficit now COMBINATION of tax increases and reduced spending (vol.) Total Democrats Independents Republicans Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted June 9-14, 2011)
Little Appetite For Spending Reductions In Social Security And Medicare To Reduce Deficit If Congress decides to reduce the deficit by reducing federal spending, I’d like to know in which areas you would be willing to see spending reduced. For each area I name, please tell me if you would support major spending reductions, minor spending reductions or no reductions at all as a way to reduce the federal deficit. NO reductions Support MINOR reductions Support MAJOR reductions Social Security Medicare Medicaid Defense Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted July 13-18, 2011)
Even Among Republicans and Tea Party Supporters, Most Oppose Reductions to Social Security If the super committee recommends reducing the deficit by reducing federal spending, I’d like to know in which areas you would be willing to see spending reduced. For each area I name, please tell me if you would support major spending reductions, minor spending reductions or no reductions at all as a way to reduce the federal deficit. Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)
Whether or not you like the health reform law, would you say you approve or disapprove of cutting off funding as a way to stop some or all of health reform from being put into place? Two Thirds Consistently Disapproves of Cutting Funding to Health Reform Approve of cutting off funding Disapprove of cutting off funding Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls
Majority Concerned About Availability of Medicare in Future How concerned are you that the Medicare benefits seniors have today will not be available for you when you retire? Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned ASKED OF ADULTS AGE 18-64 Total 18-64 18-39 40-54 55-64 Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted April 7-12, 2011)
Varying Support for Other Deficit Reduction Proposals Involving Medicare I’m going to read you some other changes to the Medicare program that have been proposed as ways to reduce the federal budget deficit. Please tell me whether you would generally favor or oppose each one. Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Requiring drug companies to give a discount on their prices in order to participate in the Medicare program Requiring only higher income seniors to pay higher Medicare premiums Gradually raising the age of eligibility for Medicare from 65 to 67 for future retirees Requiring all seniors to pay higher Medicare premiums Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted April 7-12, 2011)
Bigger or Smaller Government? In general, would you rather have the federal government provide more services, even if it costs more in taxes or have the federal government cost less in taxes, but provide fewer services? Fewer services/ less taxes More services even if more taxes No opinion Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University Role of Government Survey (conducted September 22-October 3, 2010)
Do you think the U.S. is now spending too much, too little, or about the right amount… Views on Spending Differ By Specificity …on efforts to improve health for people in developing countries? …on foreign aid Too little Too little Too much About the right amount Too much About the right amount Don’t know/Refused Don’t know/Refused Source: Kaiser Family Foundation 2010 Survey of Americans on the U.S. Role in Global Health (conducted August 3-16, 2010)
American Approach Versus the European Union Approach • American approach has been to recover from the recession and then tackle budget issues. • EU has been to tackle budget problems during the recession.
