CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE EXERCISE OCTOBER 21, 2010 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
The California Earthquake Authority staged a statewide earthquake drill today (October 21st) to test Californians (and others throughout the world who participated) on their knowledge of earthquakes and earthquake safety.
7.8 million registered participants, as of this morning, took part in the Great California Shake Out drill designed to challenge individuals, schools, businesses and hospitals to practice state-of-the-art seismic safety measures in anticipation of the next, inevitable big quake
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE APPLICABLE FOR ANY HIGH-RISK SEISMIC ZONE
GOAL OF A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE BY INTEGRATING ALL ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE INTO A COHERENT RISK REDUCTION MODEL
EXAMPLE: ONE OF THE WORLD’S WORST POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS--- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA(Concept Developed in 2008) Source: US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and local, regional, and national partners
BASED ON KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATED THROUGH MONITORING, RESEARCH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKESTUDIES
RESEARCH POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION • RISK MANAGEMENT • PREVENTION • MITIGATION • PREPAREDNESS • PREDICTION AND WARNING • EDUCATIONAL SURGES • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA The Location of “The Big One” on the San Andreas Fault in 1857
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mw = 7.8 “The Big One”
HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO RISK
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR Source: US Geological Survey
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA “SHAKEOUT: SCENARIO Southern California is prone to earthquakes because of its location relative to the boundary between two major tectonic plates. Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault.
SHAKEOUT SCENARIO The goal of the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identifywhat they can change now—before the earthquake—to avoid catastrophic impact afterthe inevitable “big one” recurs.
DAMAGE COLLAPSE LOSS OF FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSS PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK RISK
THE Mw 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion ofeconomic losses.
THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.
THE Mw 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.
GOAL:IMPROVE REGIONAL EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTIONS (ESF's) Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13) Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8)
GOAL:IMPROVE REGIONAL EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTIONS (ESF's) Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15) Fire Protection (ESF 4)
GOAL:IMPROVE REGIONAL ESF's Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution (ESF 7) Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12)
GOAL:IMPROVE REGIONAL ESF's Hazardous Materials (ESF 10) Evacuee Case Mgmt / Family Reunification ) (ESF 6 & 8)
To learn more about the Shake Out, and to register to be included in the official participation head count, visitwww.shakeout.org