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Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center’s 25 th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities. “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP The 29 th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin, Madison October 18, 2004.

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celebrating the climate prediction center s 25 th anniversary current ncep climate activities

Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center’s25th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

The 29th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

University of Wisconsin, Madison

October 18, 2004

outline
Outline
  • General Background: History of CPC
  • The NOAA Forecast Process
  • NCEP Overview: The Climate Mission
  • NWS and NCEP Climate Support
    • Computer Resources
    • Environmental Modeling Center
    • Reanalysis
    • Climate Forecast System
    • Climate Test Bed
  • Summary/Future Opportunities
general background history of cpc
General Background:History of CPC
  • First Global Center for NMC
  • First center to push beyond the “weather” barrier
  • A focal point for the transition from Climate Analysis to Climate Prediction
  • Is now a fundamental component of today’s NOAA Forecast Process
the path to noaa s seamless suite of nws products and forecast services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of NWS Products and Forecast Services

Observe

e.g., National Association of

State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers

Process

Products & Forecast Services

Respond & Feedback

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback

ncep mission statement
NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

NCEP Strategic Vision

Striving to be America’s

first choice, first alert and preferred partner

for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Aviation Weather Center

Space Environment Center

Tropical Prediction

Center

Storm Prediction Center

climate mission
Climate Mission

“CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.”

  • Focus is on Week-2 to Seasonal-to-Interannual (to decadal forecasts??)
  • Official products for the U.S.
  • Forecasts in collaboration with - CDC, HPC, IRI
  • Foundation for NWS Seamless Suite of Products
nws support for climate services
NWS Support for Climate Services
  • All NCEP products linked directly to:
    • 122 Weather Forecast Offices
    • 13 River Forecast Centers
    • 22 Central Weather Service Units
  • EMC testing regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes
  • NWS Regions assigning climate focal points for each station  with training – outreach materials
  • Coop modernization  Reference Climate Network
ncep climate support
NCEP Climate Support

$20M/Year Investment

Of which $5M is for Climate

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

  • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily
  • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec
  • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day
  • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)
  • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)
  • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)
  • 2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005
  • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005
    • 1/3 for climate applications to support Climate Test Bed
ncep climate support10
NCEP Climate Support

EMC Organization

ncep climate support reanalysis
NCEP Climate Support: Reanalysis
  • Global
    • T62(~210 km)/28 level, global domain
    • Used as benchmark to measure model improvement
    • Waiting on funding;working with NASA/GSFC
    • Review paper for Climate Change Science Program
  • Regional
    • 32 km, 45 layer, domain covers N. and C. America,
    • Includes precipitation assimilation
    • Includes most recent Noah land model
    • Completed 24 years of RR production in just over 3 months
    • Real-time update now executing
    • Output available through NCDC
ncep climate support coupled climate forecast system implemented august 24 2004
NCEP Climate Support: Coupled ClimateForecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)
  • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)
  • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical
  • Recent upgrades in model physics
      • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)
      • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)
      • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)
      • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

1. Atmospheric component

2. Oceanic component

  • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)
  • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers
  • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)
  • Free surface

3. Coupled model

  • Once-a-day coupling
  • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
slide14

Most Recent CFS

Latest CPC Forecast:

Warm episode El Nino conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.

slide15

Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction

Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)

The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST

variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at

least parity with statistical forecasts.

the noaa climate test bed
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

08 October 2004

Climate

Community

Climate Test Bed

Research &

Development

NOAA

Climate

Forecast

Operations

Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into

improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

climate test bed
Climate Test Bed
  • Mission: To accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications
  • Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research and operational service applications
  • High profile activities
    • Operational CFS/GFS assessments
    • Multi-model ensembles
    • Climate product and applications development
    • Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) interactions
    • Climate reanalysis and data impact
ctb organization

Oversight Board

CPC CDC EMCGFDL IRI NCPO

CTB ORGANIZATION

Science

Advisory

Board

Director

CPC

Program Manager

NCPO

Deputy

EMC

Climate Science Team

EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR

OST OCCWS

EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points)

Science / Software

Support from

Contractors; TA’s, SA’s

Test Bed Users

climate test bed status
Climate Test Bed Status
  • Director (Wayne Higgins of CPC) and Deputy Director (Hua Lu Pan of EMC) named
  • Resource allocation ongoing (within NCEP)
  • Additional resources being provided through NOAA Climate Program Office (NCPO)
  • CTB teams (Oversight Board, Science Advisory Board and Climate Science Teams) being organized.
summary
Summary
  • NOAA/NWS provide critical operational support to climate-weather product stream
  • NCEP/CPC focus: seasonal-interannual-decadal
  • Infrastructure support is in place
    • Computers
    • Data assimilation (ocean, land and atmosphere)
    • Coupled global model (atmosphere, land, ocean)
    • Product generation, product dissemination
    • Climate Test Bed
  • Partnerships are critical element of success
    • OGP, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, CDC, NCDC, COLA and others
future opportunities
Future Opportunities
  • Extend ability to provide seasonal prediction (time, space, regime)
  • THORPEX/IPY (’07/’08): climate/weather linkage
  • Ecosystem forecasts: enhancing the application of climate predictions
  • Climate Test Bed
slide24
End

(extra slides follow)

slide26

30

33 C

29 C

32

23

24

16

16

00

12

24

36

48

00

12

24

36

48

OPERATIONAL COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE ETA MODEL

(Model captures interannual variability of daytime max temperature and model soil moisture)

July 1999

July 2000

Eta model

end-of-month

2nd layer

volumetric

soil moisture

relatively

dry

relatively

moist

Eta model monthly-

mean 2-m (C) air

temperature vs obs:

interior Southwest

obs

obs

Eta

Eta

interior

Southwest

Eta forecast hour

Eta forecast hour

Figure 6.Upper: Eta model layer 2 (10-40 cm) volumetric soil moisture is relatively moist (dry) in

July 1999, left (July 2000, right). Lower: Verification of operational Eta model multi-station,monthly-mean

2-m air temperature for interior Southwest: moister and cooler (warmer and drier) conditions in July 1999,

left (July 2000, right) are well-captured.

slide27

Most recent upgrade in Noah land model physics: snowpack physics

Eliminate early bias in springtime depletion of significant winter snowpack

Revised physics of: A) surface evaporation over patchy snow cover

B) surface albedo over snow cover

Winter 1996-1997

Mean snow water

equivalent (SWE)

over 110 SNOTEL sites

of western CONUS.

Control Noah run: green

Revised Noah run: yellow

Obs (SNOTEL): black

From N. American Land

Data Assimilation System

(NLDAS)