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Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010. The Outlook (Last Year). Low trajectory climb out of the trough Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild the balance sheet

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slide1

Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession

Richard Kaglic

November 9, 2010

slide3

The Outlook (Last Year)

  • Low trajectory climb out of the trough
    • Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild the balance sheet
    • Investment hindered by weak demand, capacity excesses, credit conditions
    • Global economy is weak, but improving
  • What to look for:
    • Production to pick up, survey results, particularly PMIs
    • Banks start lending again (risk spreads, lending surveys)
    • Firms stop firing and start hiring (jobless claims)
slide4

ISM: Business Survey Indexes

DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.

Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

slide5

Senior Loan Officer Survey

Source: Board of Governors

slide6

Initial Jobless Claims

(000s, 4-wk MA

Source: BLS/Haver Analytics

slide7

Carolinas Business Activity Index

Index > 0 indicates expansion

Source: FRB Richmond

slide8

Unemployment Rates

Percent

Sep.

Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

slide9

Payroll Employment

Index, December 2007 = 100

Sep.

Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

slide10

Employment Concentration

Location Quotients, U.S. average = 1.0

Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

slide11

Payroll Employment, North Carolina

Index, recession trough = 1.00

Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

slide12

Carolinas Business Expectations Index

Index > 0 indicates expansion

Source: FRB Richmond

slide13

Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

slide14

Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

slide15

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons

Oct.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

slide16

Alternative Measures of Unemployment

Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

slide17

Alternative Measures of Unemployment

Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

slide18

Gauges of Inflation

Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.

Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics

slide19

Miscellaneous: $154

Source: Board of Governors

slide20

Federal Reserve System Assets

$, Billions

Term ABS Lending

Facility (TALF): $28

TALF: $32

Total: $2,346

Total: $2,342

AIG & Bear Stearns: $113

AIG & Bear Stearns: $114

Miscellaneous: $154

Miscellaneous: $159

Agency MBS: $1,051

Agency MBS: $1,092

Agency

Debt: $154

Agency

Debt: $150

Treasury Securities:

$801

Treasury Securities:

$840

Notes: Discount Window lending and Foreign Currency Swaps are less than $1 billion as of 9/22 and 11/03.

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics