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Principal Investigators K. Rupa Kumar and K. Krishna Kumar Co-Principal Investigators

Principal Investigators K. Rupa Kumar and K. Krishna Kumar Co-Principal Investigators Nayana R. Deshpande and Savita K. Patwardhan Project Assistant V. Prasanna. Climate Change Projections for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts (A NATCOM Project).

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Principal Investigators K. Rupa Kumar and K. Krishna Kumar Co-Principal Investigators

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  1. Principal Investigators K. Rupa Kumar and K. Krishna Kumar Co-Principal Investigators Nayana R. Deshpande and Savita K. Patwardhan Project Assistant V. Prasanna Climate Change Projections for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts(A NATCOM Project) NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune(An Autonomous Institute under Dept. of Science & Technology, Govt. of India) • Established 1962 • Initially part of IMD • Autonomous in 1971 • 100 Scientists • Focus on Monsoon Research • Climate Diagnostics and Modelling NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  3. Main Activities Proposed • Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India • V&A in the Indian Agricultural Sector • Climate and Malaria • High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  4. Indian Summer Monsoon Flow NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  5. Monsoon Variability Features Factors NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  6. Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  7. The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  8. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set) NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  9. Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions . NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  10. Global Impacts of El Nino NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  11. Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  12. Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  13. Climate Scenarios:What are they ? A climate scenario is a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  14. Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios • Specifying alternative emissions futures • Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations • Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing • Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given radiative forcing • Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  15. Climate System NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  16. Climate Models • Simplified mathematical representation of the Earth’s climate system • Skill depends on the level of our understanding of the physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the climate system • Substantial improvements over the last two decades • Sub-models : atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, biosphere • Typical Resolution of global models (atmosphere) : Horizontal - 250 km; Vertical – 1 km • Small-scale processes : Parameterization • Coupled models (e.g., atmosphere-ocean) • Sensitivity studies/Future projections • Internal variability/Ensemble runs NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  17. IS92A Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmopshere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2061-80 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are presented in the following figures for the Indian region. The simulations of eight models used are: 1. Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. 2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. 3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. 4. Deutsches Kilma Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. 6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) 7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  18. Global Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Patterns simulated by 9 coupled AOGCMs NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  19. Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  20. Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  21. Monsoon Precipitation Change (% of 2061-80 as compared to 1961-90 period) due to Greenhouse Gas Increase NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  22. Annual Surface Temperature Change (Deg. C in 2061-80 compared to 1961-90 period) due to Greenhouse Gas Increase NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  23. Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  24. Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Temperature over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  25. IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficien technologies A2: A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1: A world of „dematerialization“ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability 8 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  26. SRES CO2 Emissions NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  27. Predicted precipitation change 2080-2000 NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003 Source: IPCC 2001 Cubasch

  28. Predicted precipitation change 2080-2000 NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003 Source: IPCC 2001 Cubasch

  29. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  30. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  31. CCSR SRES A2 Scenario of Monsoon Rainfall in the 21st Century NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  32. CCSR SRES A2 Scenario of Annual Temperature in the 21st Century NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  33. Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  34. Kharif Rice Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  35. Winter Wheat Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  36. Relation between Indian Rice Production and the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Global Oceans NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  37. Kharif Groundnut Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  38. State-wise Food Production and its Relation to Sub-divisional Rainfall NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  39. Climate Impacts on Malaria NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  40. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  41. Impact of Antecedent Pre-Monsoon Rains on the Incidence of Malaria in India NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  42. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  43. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  44. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  45. NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  46. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Joint Indo-UK Collaborative research programme on climate change impacts in India • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region (the output is being currently analysed by IITM) • HadRM3 installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  47. Model Orographiesin GCM and RCM NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  48. Observed and Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (GCM vs. RCM) NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  49. Observed and Simulated (GCM and RCM) Surface Air Temperature over India NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

  50. Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2 NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation - 27.02.2003

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