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IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATES

IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATES. Nobuyuki Iwai Robert D. Emerson Orachos Napasintuwong International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center Department of Food and Resource Economics University of Florida.

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IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATES

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  1. IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATES Nobuyuki Iwai Robert D. Emerson Orachos Napasintuwong International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center Department of Food and Resource Economics University of Florida The World Trade Organization Impacts on U.S. Farm Policy Conference New Orleans, Louisiana, June 1-3, 2005

  2. BACKGROUND • Specialty Crops • Labor intensive • 37% on labor expenditures in fruits, vegetables, horticultural crops production vs. 13% for all ag production • Foreign workers • 78% of ag workers in 2000-01 • 68% undocumented

  3. IMMIGRATION POLICY • Speculation that amnesty would lead to labor shortages and wage increases in agriculture • Tran & Perloff (2002) • IRCA of 1986 increased long-run probability that people granted amnesty stayed in agriculture • Hashida & Perloff (1996) • Same direction • Emerson & Napasintuwong (2002) • Longer duration for authorized than unauthorized workers

  4. OBJECTIVES OF OUR STUDY • Censored data: duration of a particular legal status is observed only if workers have that status • Duration model with sample bias correction • Heckman two-stage sample selection method: ordered probit model explains legal status, duration model estimates spells for each legal status

  5. Data • National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 1989-2004 • Specialty Crops: all crops excluding major field crops, sugar beets, sugarcane, tobacco, and soybeans • Legal status: unauthorized, authorized, permanent residents, citizens (in order) • Duration: completed farm work spells

  6. Results: Ordered Probit Model • Female, Married, English speaking skills, Non-Black, White, Non-Hispanic, Education, Before 1993, Before 2001 have positive effect on higher legal status • Age, U.S. farm work experience have non-linear effects, but positive over relevant range

  7. Marginal Effects on Legal Status

  8. Actual-Predicted Legal Status

  9. Results: Duration Model continued

  10. Results: Duration Model (continued) continued

  11. Results: Duration Model (continued)

  12. Average Predicted Duration (days)

  13. Simulations • Fixed characteristics of workers at typical unauthorized worker • Male, married, Hispanic, non-black, non-white, no free housing, age 28, 6th grade education, 5.8 years of U.S. farm experience, and speak less than a little English, but more than not at all

  14. Simulations • Evaluate changes in duration under alternative legal status conditionally upon being an unauthorized worker • From California, Florida, or rest of US • Before 1993, 1993-2001, after 2001 • Harvest vs. pre-harvest work

  15. Simulations Summary • 14/18 cases, unauthorized workers working as authorizedworkers have longer durations • All cases, unauthorized workers working as permanent residentshave longer durations (up to 19% longer) • 13/18 cases, unauthorized workers working as citizens have shorter durations • 14/18 cases, unauthorized workers working as legal (combined authorized, permanent resident, and citizen) workers have longer durations

  16. Simulations Summary (cont.) • Larger positive effects on expected duration for an unauthorized worker working under a legal status after 2001 • Longer expected duration in Florida

  17. Conclusions • Unlike other studies, switching from an unauthorized status to a legal status does not always increase expected farm work duration • Florida has a longer expected job duration than other states • After 2001, expected duration increases, and even more with a legal status

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