Consequences of nuclear disarmament proposals. Adam Mount, Ph.D . LLNL, 4 May, 2014. Nuclear disarmament proposals. 1968 : npt 1977: Carter, un 1986: Reagan, Reykjavik 2009: Obama, Prague 2009: S/RES/1887 2011: Nuclear Posture Review.
Adam Mount, Ph.D.
LLNL, 4 May, 2014
1977: Carter, un
1986: Reagan, Reykjavik
2009: Obama, Prague
2011: Nuclear Posture Review
Theu.s.has periodically issued commitments to disarm, sometimes in response to transnational activism or multilateral initiatives.
Less studied is the effects of different types of disarmament proposals.
A negotiated treaty containing provisions for verified dismantlement and continued inspections
Voluntary bilateral u.s.-Russia reductions lead to P-5 participation for further reductions. Progress on related agreements (ctbt, fmct, npt) build confidence. Once at low numbers, disarmament is verified simultaneously in all nations.
Perkovich& Lewis (2009)
Fetter & Oelirch (2010)
Acton (2011), Holloway (2011)
A legal prohibition proposed by a international group with moral authority
A transnational activist group or multilateral movement gathers sufficient support for its weapons ban to have bearing on international law or public opinion and nuclear countries accede to the statement. The text could directly mandate disarmament or apply it indirectly (through moral criticism of deterrence, for example).
hinw, Nayarit (2014)
Nuclear capability is eliminated when the u.s.can no longer certify its nuclear assets safe and reliable for deployment.
Intentionally or unintentionally, stockpile management decisions lead to decreased nuclear capability. A lack of knowledge or resources, brought on by a protracted test-ban or Congressional decisions, render the arsenal too unsafe or unreliable to deploy.
National Research Council (2012)
Unless made explicit, unlikely to have significant diplomatic benefits for nonproliferation, reciprocity
Complex doctrinal questions
Could weaken nuclear security efforts
New surety funding thought contrary to disarmament commitments
Theu.s.voluntarily eliminates its nuclear arsenal without reciprocity or inspection requirements
A Presidential decision abandons nuclear deterrence, demobilizes nuclear forces, and begins warhead dismantlement.
Podvig, bas (2013)
Krauss, nyt (2013)
Gaffney, wt (2012-3)