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Mastering Induction Heuristics for Effective Hypothesis Testing

Understand and apply induction heuristics for successful hypothesis testing. Learn how to form, test, and refine hypotheses using examples and counterexamples. Discover the importance of seeking disconfirming evidence. Compare the method to scientific theory testing.

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Mastering Induction Heuristics for Effective Hypothesis Testing

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  1. 2 4 6 task • You guess the secret rule • 2 4 6 < yes, fit the secret rule • 7 9 11 < yes, fits the rule • Rule is ascending (increasing numbers)

  2. Another attempt • 2 4 6 < yes, fits the rule -2 4.5 400 < no • 7 2 1 < no, do not fit the rule -1 -3 -5 < no • 8 10 12 < yes -5 -3 -1 < no • 1 3 5 < yes 0 13 20 < no • 6 10 18 < no 0 7 10 < no • 33 35 37 < yes ANSWER: positive numbers, increasing by 2 • Exemplar = set of 3 numbers that you generate

  3. Positive/ negative exemplars • Your own hypothesis (H) • E.g. H: numbers add to 12 • Proposed exemplar: 7 2 3 • Exemplar fits H  “positive” exemplar • E.g., if proposed exemplar: 7 2 1 • Exemplar doesn’t fit H  “negative” exemplar

  4. expectations • E.g. H: numbers add to 12 • Proposed exemplar : 7 2 1 • Expectation  “no” response, doesn’t fit the rule • If the response increases confidence in H, then it’s said to be “confirming”

  5. Another expectation • E.g. H: numbers add to 12 • Proposed positive exemplar: 7 2 3 • E.g., he expected a “no” response because he had low confidence in H  then the hypothesis is “disconfirmed”

  6. Heuristics for induction and hypothesis testing • Rule-of-thumb: Not guaranteed to work, but more likely to get the answer • 1) form general hypotheses (not specific ones) • E.g. H: numbers increasing by 2 (specific) • More general version  numbers increasing • 2) form counterfactual hypotheses (i.e., opposing hypotheses)

  7. More heuristics • 2) form counterfactual hypotheses • E.g. H: numbers increasing • Counterfactual (opposing) H: numbers decreasing • 3) use extreme examples (exemplars) • E.g., exemplar : 7 9 1 • Extreme exemplar: -7 9,000 1 million • 4) use multiple hypotheses • Have at least 2 hypotheses in mind always • Pick an exemplar that tells which hypothesis is right (discriminating between hypotheses)

  8. More heuristics • 5) seek disconfirming evidence  find exemplars that show your hypothesis is wrong • Peoples’ natural inclination is to seek confirming evidence (confirmation bias)

  9. Science as hypothesis testing • We had H in 2 4 6 task; in science, it’s called a “theory” • We had exemplars in 2 4 6 task; in science, they are “experimental results” • In 2 4 6 task, we compared the response (yes or no) with our hypothesis; in science, the scientist compares the results to the theory

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