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Harnessing Lightning Data for Better Weather Forecasting

Learn how collaborations with NASA and the National Weather Service have improved weather warnings using Lightning Mapping Arrays (LMA). Explore the impact on forecasting decisions at the 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop.

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Harnessing Lightning Data for Better Weather Forecasting

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  1. Total Lightning Collaborations with NASA SPoRT and the National Weather Service Christopher Darden, Brian Carcione, Geoffrey Stano* (And many others) *ENSCO, Inc./NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center Huntsville, AL Southern Thunder Workshop 11-14 July, 2011 Norman, OK

  2. History of Program • Began in 2003 • Expanded initially to Birmingham and Nashville • Next to Morristown • Incorporated Atlanta sensors • 2010 – Efforts expanded to KSC LDAR 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  3. “Directly contributed to several warning decisions” • “…LMA often helps ‘tip the scales’ towards issuing a warning” From the Forecasters • WFO Morristown • Entering Marion County, TN • Weak rotation • Source Density – 80 • POSH – 40% • Favorable environment • Evaluated below severe • Should warning be issued? • No change through 0350 • Wait for another scan? • Lightning jump to 200 sources • Warning issued • 20 minute lead time 0346 UTC 0352 UTC 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  4. From the Forecasters • “LMA spikes correlate well with updrafts…sound meteorology” • “…LMA gives a good map on where to concentrate attention” • “Very good for aviation” 2232 UTC 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  5. AWIPS II Collaborations • Direct partnership with WFO Huntsville • Ingest and display plug-in • One plug-in, many products • SPoRT can support AWIPS I or AWIPS II simultaneously • Can test on SPoRT’s or WFO’s machines 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  6. Success From Training • “Demonstrates use in marginal events” • “LMA started as a curiosity, but is now a procedure for many in the office” • Initial training just on what the product is 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  7. “Super Tuesday” • “LMA indicates where to concentrate attention” • “LMA was not a 1st decision aid but led to stronger wording and increased confidence” • More than just lightning jumps! February 6, 2008 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  8. April 27, 2011 • Primary emphasis on radar • 37 confirmed tornadoes • 3 EF-4s at one time • LMA used • Available time limited • Network suffered damage • Power outages Huntsville Warnings 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  9. Looking Forward • LMA was not an institutional product originally • Forecasters now want more detailed examples • Big challenge • Quantify values • What is “significant” • New training starts this 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  10. Improve Lightning Safety From WFO Melbourne 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  11. New Products? • Improve utility • Rapid accessibility • Quantify output • Important GLM ability? • Less constrained detection efficiency 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  12. Questions? • Geoffrey Stano • geoffrey.stano@nasa.gov 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

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