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NYS High School Demographics Considerations for Change

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  1. New York State’s High School DemographicsConsiderations for ChangeSUNY Directors MeetingDecember 7, 2005Herkimer County Community College Renée M. OverdykeDirector of Enrollment AnalysisOffice of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration

  2. NYS High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change • NYS High School Graduate Projections • Regional Distributions • Racial/Ethnic Trends and Distributions • Future Analyses

  3. NYS High School Projection M E T H O D O L O G Y • Originally developed by Dr. Glenwood Rowse, Coordinator, Office of Research and Information Systems NYSED. • Cohort Survival Method based on prior year grade-to-grade attrition (or growth) using at least four years of K-12 historical data. • Designed as a hybrid model that finds the best value, or “Grade Progression Rate” (GPR) to project future cohorts. • The model selects the best of 3 different ways of computing the GPR: (1.) basic average, (2.) weighted average and (3.) the “trend” or linear regression (R2) of the most recent years. • The level of analysis is the county; county #’s & ratios are generally quite stable making this a reliable level of detail to work from. • Important to remember any projection figures will vary as new data becomes available. • Accordingly, the first several projected years are likely to be more accurate, with the margin of error increasing the further out we project. Data Source: The NYSED Institutional Master File

  4. Updates coming soon!

  5. % Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates 2004 (actual) vs. 2010 (projected) CLINTON FRANKLIN ST LAWRENCE Northern ESSEX BRONX Northeast JEFFERSON MANHATTAN. QUEENS LEWIS HAMILTON WARREN WASHINGTON BROOKLYN STATEN IS. SCH’tdy HERKIMER SARATOGA FULTON NYC – 5 Boroughs ONEIDA OSWEGO MONT. SCH’tdy RENSSELAER ONONDAGA WAYNE ALBANY MADISON ORLEANS SCHOHARIE MONROE OTSEGO CAYUGA COLUMBIA ONTARIO GENESEE GREENE SENECA CORTLAND CHENANGO NIAGARA YATES TOMPKINS LIVINGSTON DELAWARE BROOME Western SCHUYLER Mid-Hudson TIOGA WYOMING ULSTER DUTCHESS ERIE STEUBEN CHEMUNG Central SULLIVAN Putnam Genesee Valley Long Island ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS ORANGE WESTCHESTER CHAUTAUQUA ROCKLAND SUFFOLK NASSAU SEE ABOVE NYC

  6. % Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates 2004 (actual) vs. 2015 (projected) CLINTON FRANKLIN ST LAWRENCE Northern ESSEX BRONX Northeast JEFFERSON MANHATTAN. QUEENS HAMILTON LEWIS WARREN WASHINGTON BROOKLYN STATEN IS. SCH’tdy HERKIMER SARATOGA FULTON NYC – 5 Boroughs ONEIDA OSWEGO MONT. SCH’tdy RENSSELAER ONONDAGA WAYNE ALBANY MADISON ORLEANS SCHOHARIE MONROE OTSEGO CAYUGA COLUMBIA ONTARIO GENESEE GREENE SENECA CORTLAND CHENANGO NIAGARA PUTNAM YATES TOMPKINS LIVINGSTON DELAWARE BROOME Western SCHUYLER Mid-Hudson TIOGA WYOMING ULSTER DUTCHESS ERIE STEUBEN CHEMUNG Central SULLIVAN ALLEGANY Putnam Genesee Valley Long Island CATTARAUGUS ORANGE WESTCHESTER CHAUTAUQUA ROCKLAND SUFFOLK NASSAU SEE ABOVE NYC

  7. NYS 12th Grade Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

  8. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsWESTERN REGION{Cohort size ranks 6th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  9. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsGENESEE VALLEY{Cohort size ranks 5th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  10. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsCENTRAL REGION {Cohort size ranks 7th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  11. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsNORTHERN REGION{Cohort size ranks 8th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  12. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsNORTHEAST REGION{Cohort size ranks 4th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004-05 6th Grade Cohort

  13. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsMID-HUDSON REGION{Cohort size ranks 3rd of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  14. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsNYC – 5 BOROUGHS{Cohort size ranks 1st of the 8 Regents Regions.} Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010 2004 6th Grade Cohort

  15. A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort ComparisonsLONG ISLAND{Cohort size ranks 2nd of the 8 Regents Regions.} 2004 6th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

  16. Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences • Overall, Upstate NY’s general population grew by a mere 1.1 percent in the 1990’s, slower than the growth rate of every state but West Virginia and North Dakota. • Within Upstate NY, only two regions grew in the 1990’s, the Hudson Valley region which extends north of NYC through Albany and Saratoga. • Upstate NY’s racial/ethnic minority population is small and unevenly distributed among its metropolitan areas & segregated within them. • Overall, more people moved out of Upstate NY than moved in during the 1990’s; 1.7 million migrating out & 1.3 million coming in. • Nearly 30 percent of new residents in Upstate NY in the 1990s were prisoners. Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

  17. Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences • NYC’s general population grew considerably during the 1990’s, with a record 8 million residents in 2000. • Neighborhoods throughout the city grew, especially the outer boroughs and surrounding areas. • NYC owes it’s population growth and unrivaled diversity to new arrivals from abroad. Whites, blacks and Hispanic’s each make up at least a quarter of the city’s population. • The city added nearly 800,000 residents from abroad. Without this gain in immigrants, the city’s population would have decreased over the 1990’s. • Nearly half of the city’s foreign-born come from the Caribbean and Latin America, but significant numbers also hail from Eastern Europe and East Asia. Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

  18. What’s Next??? • Further refine and update projection model. • Drill down to the district level, so we can tie to SUNY’s top feeder schools. • Also try county (district?) level projections for racial/ethnic, gender, and socio-economic distributions. • Continue to tie NYS high school data to SUNY applicant and enrollee trends for planning purposes. • Take a closer look at the “Big Five” school districts. • Consider other NYS demographic features such as national origin, language, sub-cultural elements, etc.

  19. New York State’s High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change THANK YOU Questions??? Contact:Renée M. OverdykeDirector of Enrollment AnalysisOffice of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration overdyke.renee@sysadm.suny.edu(518) 443 - 5474