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What do Gartner’s 2005 Predictions Mean for Libraries. Stephen Abram VP, Innovation Sirsi Corporation March 17, 2004. Gartner Group.

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what do gartner s 2005 predictions mean for libraries

What do Gartner’s 2005 Predictions Mean for Libraries

Stephen Abram

VP, Innovation

Sirsi Corporation

March 17, 2004

gartner group
Gartner Group
  • Gartner Predicts research initiative in 2005 spanned more than two dozen technology and vertical industry focus areas. All told, more than 140 analysts proposed and collaborated on approximately 150 predictions that will affect IT users, vendors and most industries in 2005 and beyond.
  • Space limitations prevent highlighting all focus areas — let alone all the predictions — today. I will pull out selected predictions that demand your attention and action.
slide3
View technologies and innovations as related to future of library services.
  • Connecting, Collaboration, Community

News Service March 29, 2004

U.S. President George W. Bush called for universal and affordable access to broadband Internet service by 2007, saying that the technology would speed the flow of information and spark innovation.

next massive wave of innovation and demand for it will start in 2006 7
Next Massive Wave of Innovation and Demand for IT Will Start in 2006/7

Transition to Service-oriented architecture

Real-Time Infra-structure

Low-Power-Consumption Mobile/Display Devices

2006/7

Secure Broadband Wireless

hardware innovations in the next decade
Hardware Innovations in the Next Decade
  • A bridge for the physical and electronic worlds, multipurpose technology
  • Accelerometers, sensors, micro actuators
  • Smart Pills, Nano, Quantum, Optical, Molecular

MEMS

  • Tagging physical objects with electronic information
  • Supply chain automation
  • Product information discovery

RFID

  • Physically and logically separate processing space for trusted applications
  • Ubiquitous billing infrastructure — µ-payments
  • Easy-to-use DRM, new business models
  • Key Issue: Can it be implemented right?

Trusted Computing

mobile and wireless in the next decade
Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade
  • Innovation in personal device format and user interaction
  • Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling
  • Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center
  • PAN: for user interaction

Personal Area Networks

  • A mix of technologies, including Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach
  • Sensor Networks, Smart Dust
  • Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play

Mesh Networks

Mobile Commerce

  • Devices + Reliable Networks + Business Models + Content
  • Context- and Location-Based Services
  • Hybrid offerings blending traditional and mobile commerce
computer human interaction in the next decade
Computer Human Interactionin the Next Decade
  • Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position
  • Gait Analysis, Infrared
  • Emotion/Lie Detection

Human  Computer

  • OLED/OLEP, E-Ink
  • Head-Mounted Displays
  • Speech Synthesis
  • Avatars, Synthetic Characters

Computer  Human

Logic

  • Natural Language Search
  • Taxonomies/Browsing
  • Personalization
  • Machine Translation
data analytics in the next decade
Data Analytics in the Next Decade
  • Hardware revolution continues to drive the data explosion
  • Analysis and action gaps widen – skills shortage
  • Data mining remains niche; most pockets of opportunities are still within business intelligence
  • Data mining shifts to intermediaries (Wal-Mart, eBay)

Trends

  • Embedded Data Mining

Advanced Functionality

  • Visualization, neural nets, genetic algorithms, machine learning
  • Text and information extraction
  • Audio and video mining
  • Exploiting networks and communities (Google, Amazon)
system development and management in the next decade
XML

XQuery

Development

Long fuse

Aspect-OrientedProgramming

Business Rules Engines

Service-Oriented Software

Extreme Programming

Int. Web Services

System Development and Managementin the Next Decade

Heavy Ontologies

Integration

Agent-Based Integration

More ModularityLess Monolithic

More Agility

More Complexity

Identity Management

BAM

Complex Event Processing

Portals

Service-oriented Business Applications

Composite Applications

Application Platform Suites

ManagementandSourcing

Outsourcing

Business Process Fusion

“Virtual Enterprise”

ASPs

Grid Computing

Real-time Infrastructure

  • Bottom Line:
  • Standards matter!
  • Modularity implies more flexibility — but also more complexity.
slide11
Strategic Planning Assumption:By 2010, 70% of the population in developed nations will spend 10 times longer per day interacting with people in the electronic world than in the physical one (0.6 probability).

Connected Society

connected society
Connected Society

Identity and Profiles

Wearables

Wireless

Ad Hoc Communities

Privacy, Preference and Discrimination

WiFi

Smart Phones

Collaboration: I, borg

Ultrawideband

Augmented Reality

Location-Based Services

Healthcare as a Utility

connected objects and places
Connected Objects and Places

Smart spaces

On-chip wireless/RFID

Smarter people

On-chip sensors/MEMS

What should objects know? Location, owner, safety ...

Low-power CPUs

Low-power displays

Products as services

Ad hoc networking/ mesh networks

Personalized retail

Disposable computers

Smart dust

connected enterprises
Connected Enterprises

Enterprise as Ecosystem

Real-time Infrastructure

Service-Oriented Everything

Business Process Fusion

Communications-Enabled Business Processes

Voice/Data Convergence

Offshore Outsourcing

Measuring Knowledge Work

Shifting Job Roles

Compliance and Data Visibility

Exploiting Network Effects: Innocentive

Semantic Standards

top 10 technologies to watch
Top 10 Technologies To Watch

Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW Grid

Linux WLANs Smartphones CRM

Portals iSCSI SANs IP Telephony BAM

Instant Messaging SCM Opteron Nanocomputing

LEP UWB Software as Services

Zibgee Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applications

Natural Language Search Micro fuel cells Tablet PCs

MMS Speech recognition 802.11g Trusted Platforms

Utility computing OLED Mesh networks Camera Phones

e-inkIT self-service Network Security Convergence

Smart dust Semantic Web RFID Tags 4G wireless

Taxonomies Location aware services Ontologies

Unified communications Metadata management

Maturing within 36 months

Network security convergence

IP telephony

Software as services

Instant messaging

Established, wider usability

Utility computing

WLANs

Partial value next three years

RFID tags

Grid

Taxonomies

Real-Time Infrastructure

real time enterprise
Real-Time Enterprise

A real-time enterprise (RTE):

  • Monitors, captures and analyzes root cause and overt events that are critical to the success of the enterprise
  • Does it the moment those events occur
  • Exploits that real-time information to progressively remove delays in managing and executing critical detection, reporting, decision- making and response business processes
slide17
Connected Society

Strategic Planning Assumption:

By 2005, 60 percent of interpersonal data messaging done by consumer and enterprise users via mobile and fixed devices will be instant (real-time) by exploiting location and other presence indicators (0.7 probability).

wider deployment of wlan for enterprises
Wireless Encryption Protocol is broken, but better than nothing

Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) protocol brings WLAN to business-level security, but needs to move to at next refresh cycle of the protocol

Still need to worry about end-point security

Don’t forget about public hot spots

Wider Deployment of WLAN for Enterprises
software treated as services
Interoperability Is Cheaper Than Integration

Service-Oriented

Development of

Applications

(SODA)

  • Interface Separation
  • Wrapping (Reflection)
  • Description
  • Dynamism

Develop

OOP

Service-Oriented

Architecture

(SOA)

  • Contracts
  • Messages
  • Repository
  • Servers

Deploy

Software Treated as Services

Composite Applications

“Real-Time” (JIT) Integration

web services readiness
Web Services Readiness

Scope of Deployment

Scope of Web Services (WS)

Stage 3:

2007 onward

Unlimited — Prospects, Suppliers, Influencers

Full

Internet

Open-sourced WS-UDDI

Directories

Cross-industry

Shared WS

for trusted supply chains; narrow partner groupings

Stage 2: 2005 Limited External-Trading Partners

Extended enterprise

Proprietary

WS for internal integration

Cross- enterprise

Stage 1: 2003 Internal Development

Individual

department

Scope of

Standards

One depart-ment.

CIOoffice

Industryconsortia

(public)

International/U.S. standards bodies

slide21
Connected Society

Strategic Planning Assumption:

By 2012, radio frequency identification (RFID) and similar wireless chips will evolve from a supply-chain technology into an enabler of value-added consumer applications, such as item location and status reporting (0.6 probability).

ip telephony provides the killer environment
Call

Center

Tools

CRM

Device

Inter-

operability

Remote

Site

Management

Collaboration

Services

Mobility

Consistent Security

User Authentication

Extending Telephone Features

Presence Detection

PC/Telephone/Video connectivity

Centralized Administration

Centralized Management

Agent Availability

Caller Information

Presence Detection

Presence Detection

Collaboration

Bridge Services

Scheduling Tools

IP Telephony Provides the ‘Killer Environment’

IP telephony crosses organizational units and technologies

how will wireless lans and 3g interoperate
How Will Wireless LANs and 3G Interoperate?

Office Area

Cafeteria

Meeting Area

DSL

Cable

WLL

In the Home

Enterprise Campus

Coverage Area <150 feet

< 20 computers

Expect 2 Mbps to 8 Mbps through YE04

Public Hot Spots

(hotels, airports, retail centers)

handsets in 2004
Focused on application/end-user segment alignment

Packet data (CDMA 1x, GPRS, W-CDMA)

Full-color screen across product portfolio

Increased memory and storage (separate/integrated application processors)

Application-layer interface (BREW, Java)

Messaging interface (SMS, MMS, EMS?)

Product portfolio “must haves”

Bluetooth

Camera

MIDI sounds and ringers

WAP 2.0

Handsets in 2004
the smartphone emerges
The Smartphone Emerges

Symbian

+Mainstream mfg.

- Enterprise software

PalmOS

+First to market

- Back-end systems

Windows CE

+Enterprise software

- Mainstream mfg.

os competition intensifies
OS Competition Intensifies

Device Diversity

Less

More

slide29
Connected Society

Strategic Imperative:

For higher-education institutions to remain competitive, academic decision makers must build the case for real-time integration based on the learner’s needs and expectations

the case for integration the learner benefits
The Case for Integration: The Learner Benefits

Authentication Single Sign-On

Security/Privacy

  • Internal and External Content
  • Search and Discovery
  • Content Management
  • License Management
  • Rights Management
  • Linking

24x7 Help

Personal Administrative Management (ERP)

Personal Academic Management (CMS)

Communication and Collaboration

slide31
Connected Society

Strategic Planning Assumption:

By 2005, at least 60 percent of new higher-education IT spending will go toward acquiring and supporting academic technologies, including e-learning, content management and library management systems (0.7 probability).

beyond course management
Beyond Course Management

SIS

Conferencing/Collab.

Portal

METADATATOOLS

AUTHORING

Course Management

Tool

Tool

Tool

Academic Analytics

Learning Content Management

Library Management

External Content Repositories

Institutional Content Repositories

batch and real time integration of cms with major systems
Batch and Real-Time Integration of CMS With Major Systems

SIS

HR/Payroll

Batch

Real Time

Financials

Library MS

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percentage of Respondents

slide34
Connected Society

Tactical Guideline: Higher-education institutional decisions concerning library management systems, campus portals and CMS should not be made in isolation from each other.

library management systems as learning content management
Library Management Systems as Learning Content Management

Millennium

Voyager

Aleph

Unicorn

Horizon

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Number of ARL Member Libraries

Source: ARL 2003

institutional motivation for e learning
Institutional Motivation for E-Learning

Enhanced Customer Service

Student Demand

Pedagogical Advantage

Marketing Opportunities

Generate Revenues

Collaboration

Recruiting Competition

Construction Cost Savings

Government Mandate

Reduce Staff Head Count

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percentage of respondents rating motivation as very important or extremely important.

importance of technologies for e learning infrastructure in next three years top 10
Importance of Technologies for E-Learning Infrastructure in Next Three Years: Top 10

Broadband Networking

Security Technologies

Learning Content Mgmt.

Next-Gen. CMS

Enterprise Portal

2002

2003

Video Streaming

Video Over IP

Digital Rights Mgmt.

Wireless Networking

Learner Portfolios

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Percentage of respondents rating technology as very important or extremely important.

the two big e learning challenges
The Two Big E-Learning Challenges

Quality Content

(The TV Show)

Technical Infrastructure

(The TV)

Necessary Software

Optimized Network

Interesting, Fun,Interactive, Motivating

Good content and infrastructure are both neededto be successful with e-learning.

e learning deployments increase
E-Learning Deployments Increase

E-Learning

Software

Spending

Increase

in 2004

28%

IT

Spending

Increase

in 2004

7.6%

Old Focus New Focus

Enterprise LMS

Departmental LMS

E-Learning Suites

Best-of-Breed Applications

Increased Focus on Custom Content

Off-the-Shelf

status critical building blocks of it infrastructure proven
Status: Critical Building Blocks of IT Infrastructure Proven

Internet Access

Line of Business

Enterprise Data

Client Devices

Infrastructure Server/Blade

Business Application Server

Data/Content Server/ Warehouse

  • Directory
  • Security
  • Load balance
  • File/print
  • Web
  • E-mail
  • NAS
  • Proxy
  • Caching
  • VPN
  • Firewall
  • WAP
  • VoIP Gateway
  • ERP
  • SCM
  • CRM
  • HR
  • Databases
  • Consolidation on zSeries

Desktops

Compute Clusters

Network Edge Servers

Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize

where linux is used now and in 12 months
Now

+12 months

Where Linux is Used: Now and in 12 Months

No

Table 24

Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=105)

open source software usage infrastructure
+53%

Now

+24 months

Open Source Software Usage: Infrastructure

No

Table 25

Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)

open source software usage applications collaboration
+100%

Now

+24 months

Open Source Software Usage: Applications & Collaboration

No

Table 25

Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)

library open source interest is growing
Library Open Source Interest is Growing
  • Small library LMS (GreenStone, OpenBiblio, Linux School Library)
  • Digital Repository Management System (The Fedora™ Project)
  • Library Database development and search applications
  • Library Web front ends and portals (ASU library)
  • Digital collections and Audio collections
  • Professional Library Associations (LITA, ALA, ARL, BLA)
  • Major LMS vendor’s are showing interested in OSS (VTLS Inc. & Fedora Project)
  • OSS4Lib - open source projects for libraries
knowledge workplace
Knowledge Workplace

Shared Ideas

Shared Creation

E-Mail

Workflow

Content Mgmt.

Discussion

Databases

Web Conferencing

Intranets

Collaborative

Design

Portals

Shared Presence

Networked Virtual Worlds

Instant Messaging

Avatars

Videoconferencing

the future of km is personal
The Future of KM Is Personal

Personal Knowledge Network Characteristics

  • Tacit, intellectual capital is held by the individual knowledge worker
  • Instantaneous access to knowledge enhances the productivity of the individual knowledge worker
  • Collaborative connections and networks build value for the enterprise
a new infrastructure stack emerges
A New Infrastructure Stack Emerges

Line-of-Business

Applications

Portal

Integration

Suite

Application

Server

OS and DBMS

New View

Old View

content management hype cycle
Visibility

Key: Time to Plateau

WCM Outsourcing

Virtual Content Repositories

Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

Personal Web Publishing

Content Aggregation and Syndication

Taxonomies

Content Integration

Globalization, Localization

JSR 170

E-Forms

WSRP and JSR 168

Records Management

XML-Based Multichannel Output and Interaction

Document Management

Smart Enterprise Suites

Information Retrieval/Search

Content-Process Fusion

Enterprise Digital Rights Management

Document Imaging

Web Services for CM

Streaming Media

WCM

Information Extraction

Digital Asset Management

COLD, IDARS, DOM

XML Database Management Systems

Consumer Digital Rights Management

As of June 2003

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Technology Trigger

Maturity

Acronym Key

CM content management

COLD computer output to laserdisc

DOM distributed output management

IDARS integrated document archive and retrieval system

JSR Java Specification Request

WCM Web content management

WSRP Web Services for Remote Portals

Content Management Hype Cycle
content process fusion delivers
Content/Process Fusion Delivers

Content/process fusion is the evolving combination of content and process technologies based on XML. There are three key areas where this is beginning to be realized:

1. Collaboration and Transformation

– Engaging people and forms as part of a process

2. Vertical Process Automation

– C/PF targeted at reusable industry applications

3. Content Integration

– Built on XML and Web services

sirsi building for the future

Sirsi: Building For The Future

Stephen Abram

VP, Innovation

Sirsi Corporation

[email protected]

March 17, 2004

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