Jihadist Threat

2. Jihadist Threat • Though al Qaeda and other affiliated groups have failed to carry out attacks inside the U.S. since 2001, recent cases prove they maintain the intent to strike inside the U.S. Their capabilities inside the U.S. have been limited by interception of information regarding plots, leading to neutralization of operatives. • Federal law enforcement authorities have increased their ability to detect and intercept these threats. However, these efforts may not be enough to prevent all attacks.

3. Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks Hotels continue to be a favorite target of al Qaeda and its affiliated groups around the world: • July 17, 2009 – Suicide attackers detonated explosives in the lobby areas of the Ritz Carlton and J.W. Marriott hotels, leaving at least 8 dead and fifty others injured • November 26, 2008 - Mumbai – A group of armed attackers carried out several shootings and bombing attacks, eventually taking hostages at the Taj and Oberoi hotels. The attacks left at least 173 dead and 500 others injured. • June 9, 2009 – A group of armed attackers used a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device to break through a security checkpoint at the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan, leaving at least 16 dead.

4. Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks • Hotels represent an economic target, attacking both tourism and business confidence in the region. Additionally, their nature requires that they be very accessible, making the target relatively easy to access and difficult to effectively secure. • Business travelers should be trained to maintain situational awareness while in hotels, while also being aware of chokepoints inside the hotel and exit pathways in order to best respond to attacks of this sort.

5. Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi Case • Najibullah Zazi was in the final stages of carrying out an attack in September 2009 and traveled to New York City to carry out the final parts of the attack cycle. • Zazi traveled to Pakistan in early 2009, where he attended al Qaeda training camps and allegedly learned how to create explosive devices using tri-acetone tri-peroxide, or “TATP”. • Federal documents note that Zazi had already procured the materials needed to create TATP and was attempting to mix the ingredients needed to create TATP prior to his arrest. • Zazi had apparently planned to carry out the attack in New York City on September 11, 2009.

6. Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi Case • Zazi, a 24-year old Afghan-born man who drove an airport shuttle in Denver, allegedly sought to leave explosive devices inside backpacks that would be detonated inside mass transportation centers in the New York City area, including Grand Central Station. The tactics used are similar to the March 2004 transportation attacks in Madrid, Spain and the June 2006 transportation attacks in Mumbai, India. • Zazi was intercepted because federal authorities noted his travel to Pakistan. His activities were also being monitored by a confidential federal informant, an Imam in New York who was also later charged in the plot after it emerged that he informed Zazi of the federal surveillance.

7. Jihad in the U.S. – Dallas Case • On September 24, 2009, FBI agents arrested Hosam Maher Hossein Smadi, a 19-year old Jordanian man. Smadi had parked an SUV that he believed was packed full of explosives outside Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper. He later attempted to use a cellular phone to detonate the device. • Court documents note that Smadi actually procured the “explosives” from undercover federal agents and did not have direct contact with al Qaeda operatives at that time. • While this individual was intercepted before he was able to obtain the necessary materials to carry out an attack, the case demonstrates the number of individuals who maintain the intent to strike inside the U.S. who are limited by their ability to procure explosive materials and create viable explosive devices.

8. Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu • While the H1N1 virus doesn’t appear to be especially deadly, it is certainly extremely virulent and likely to cause widespread contamination in the coming months • The politics of the WHO, CDC and other medical bodies when dealing with H1N1 should not be ignored • Largest current threat is loss of productivity • Possibility remains that H1N1 could mutate into a more deadly virus

9. Pandemic Swine Flu – Current Status

10. Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu • Ukraine – Currently the most restrictive measures for dealing with swine flu. The Ukrainian Ministry of Health reports that 70 people have died of the virus to date. • Ukraine reported more than 600,000 new cases of flu during the last week of October, prompting the government to close schools and ban public gatherings, including the cancelation of some election related events. • The government has also announced it may delay January elections due to the threat of spreading the virus in polling places, raising the possibility that the flu is a convenient excuse to change the electoral environment.

11. Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu • China – Travelers continue to be subject to screening upon arrival • These restrictions do not appear to have a significant impact on commercial traffic • The Chinese government is likely to implement more severe restrictions if the virus appears to be causing more problems, similar to their response to the late stages of the SARS situation

12. Threats against Jewish Targets inside the U.S. • Law enforcement contacts continue to warn that synagogues, community centers and other targets perceived to be Jewish are under threat. The level of credibility and specificity of these threats is unclear. • These threats come from a variety of groups, including: -Anti-semitic groups and individuals -White hate groups and individuals -Jihadist sympathizers -Black Muslim groups, including organizations like the Black Panthers • STRATFOR has no specific information that attacks of this sort will be carried out against Dell facilities.

13. Threats against Jewish Targets – Case Study • October 29, 2009 – Two individuals were shot and wounded in the parking lot of the Adat Yeshurun Valley Sephardic Synagogue in North Hollywood as they were arriving for morning prayers around 6:30am. • Despite the presence of security cameras in the building, police have not made an arrest in the case. • The suspected shooter is believed to be a black male in his early 20s who was wearing a hooded sweatshirt at the time of the attack. • The motive of the attack is unclear, though police believe the attacker may have been motivated by a personal vendetta against one of the victims