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BGR's Role in Future Energy: Advisor & Resource Geoscientist

Explore how the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) contributes to future energy through its advisory role and geoscientific expertise. Learn about the joint classification scheme for petroleum, different understanding of oil reserves, and the development of oil and natural gas consumption in Europe and other regions.

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BGR's Role in Future Energy: Advisor & Resource Geoscientist

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  1. Future energy - What can the BGR contribute ? – BGR’s role as an advisor – Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover

  2. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (1646 – 1716)

  3. The Prussian State Bank

  4. Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear fuel Geothermal energy

  5. Joint classification scheme for petroleum • developed by • SPE • WPC • AAPG

  6. Different understanding of oil reserves BGR Conventional Crude Oil + NGL (+ heavy oil) Proven + (probable) 1,172 Gb Reserves: that amount of oil in known accumulations currently technologically and economically recoverable Campbell BGR Oil & Gas Journal BGR - Polar Oil - Deepwater Oil - plant NGL + Oil Sands (Canada) Proven 1,266 Gb • Proven • adjusted • 871 Gb (2002)

  7. Germany-Primery Energy Consumption

  8. Energy consumption in Germany and import quota 1993 vs. 2003

  9. Development of natural gas consumption in Europe by sources and import dependence 1000 1 Projection 800 0,8 Future Natural Gas Demand 600 0,6 Import Dependence G.m³ Future Net Imports 400 0,4 Imports from Africa Imports from USSR/CIS Germany E-Europe 200 0,2 others W-Europe UK Future Production Norway Netherlands 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: BGR-database, EU Green Paper (2000)

  10. Development of oil consumption in Europe by sources and import dependence 1 1000 Projection Future Oil Demand 0,8 800 Import Dependence 0,6 600 Mt Imports from others Future Net Imports 0,4 400 others W-Europe 0,2 Imports from USSR/CIS 200 Norway Future Production UK E-Europe 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: BGR-database, EU Green Paper (2000)

  11. Russia‘s energy charta (2003) • Russia‘s oil production in 2020 is planned to be 520 Mt – still below • peak production in the 1980ies • no significant changes (relative) in oil exports towards Europe until 2020 • Consequence: Europe‘s growing import demand (2020: 470 Mt) must • be satisfied from various sources • Russia‘s gas production in 2020 is planned to be 730 G.m3 • – higher than ever • Gas exports towards Europe will only increase to 165 G.m3 (from 134 G.m3 • in 2000) – a significant import quota decrease to 30 % (from 70 %) • Consequence: Europe‘s significantly growing gas demand has to be • satisfied from elsewhere Source: Götz 2004

  12. Development of oil consumption in China 2000 to 2020: Consumption x 2 Net Imports x 4 Net Imports 320Mt/a Sources: BGR-database, EIA 2004 (Reference Oil Price)

  13. 285m population in million (2001) Development of oil consumption in selected regions and countries Mb/d 30 285m 1990 2000 2010 1980 2020 25 20 15 1271m 10 127m 1032m 5 0 USA Western Europe USSR/CIS Japan China India Sources: BGR-database, EIA 2004 (Reference Oil Price)

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