1 / 23

Gilad Safier

Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of EcoPeace / Friends of the Earth Middle East. Roadmap for the Rehabilitation of the Lower Jordan River. Gilad Safier. Gilad Safier November 2011. August 2011. Water quantities and quality today Represents an average year

dmarks
Download Presentation

Gilad Safier

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of EcoPeace/ Friends of the Earth Middle East Roadmap for the Rehabilitation of the Lower Jordan River Gilad Safier Gilad Safier November 2011 August 2011

  2. Water quantities and quality today • Represents an average year • Future prediction for 30 years (2011-2041) • Including climate change, Population growth, changes in agricultural consumption, Approved plans Agenda

  3. Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1st • Monthly Resolution • Hydrological data from 1996-2010 • One average year • Calculates: • Water flows (m3/month) • Chlorides(mg/L) Current AccountsModel Scope How to meet the Environmental flows?

  4. GLOWA Model built in WEAP Current AccountsThe WEAP Model • Reaches • Water Sources • Water consumers • Hydrometric Stations • Quality Samples • Drainage Basins • Dams • Fishponds • Groundwater • …

  5. Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources throughout the year • Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself is neglected • Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation is1500 mg/L • Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L • Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L • … Current Accounts - Calibration

  6. Jordan River Natural Flows

  7. Top 5 contributors: • EmeqHamaayanot – 26 MCM; • SWC - 19 MCM; • Groundwater – 18 MCM; • Nahal Harod – 13 MCM; • Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM • Rough annual balance: • About 108 MCM enter the LJR • 20 MCM are consumed • 12 MCM evaporate • Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM Current AccountsResults

  8. Zero Scenario Business As Usual 2011-2041

  9. Zero Scenario- Assumptions 2 most important assumptions

  10. Zero Scenario – Climate Change

  11. Zero ScenarioWater level in the Kinneret

  12. Zero ScenarioAnnual Flows 400 69

  13. Zero ScenarioMonthly Flows – Period C

  14. Zero Scenario Extreme drought

  15. Zero ScenarioConclusions • Next 30 years can be split into 3 periods • Next decade when the Sea of Galilee is still low • Transition period when the Sea of Galilee is high but flows downstream are negligible • Return of overflows to the LJR, albeit not in historical magnitude • Overall improvement in flows and quality, especially in period C: • Still be less than 10% of historical flows • Environmental goals are not met • Salinity wise, the river will be split at the confluence with Harod • Effect of overspills from the Sea of Galilee will be limited to a few months

  16. Reintroduction Scenario Zero Scenario + reintroduction 2011-2041

  17. Reintroduction Scenario Measures

  18. Reintroduction ScenarioWater level in the Kinneret 1.3 m

  19. Reintroduction Period C averages

  20. Reintroduction ScenarioNet costs & lost revenues • 370 million for dealing with the SWC and its brine. • 1,300 million to decrease flow in the NWC. • 100 million to transfer effluents from the Kishon Water Works. • 730 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the LJR basin. • 970 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the UJR basin. • Possibility to pump 40 MCM/Yr from the river for saline irrigation at Emeq Hamaayanot – revenues of 600 million NIS • Downstream Bezeq Stream – water can be used for saline irrigation up until Adam Bridge

  21. Reintroduction ScenarioEffectiveness of measures

  22. The condition of the Jordan River today is grim with only 3% of the historical flow. • The situation will somewhat improve over the next decades but not enough. • Salinity-wise the Jordan River will be split at Harod stream. • Releasing 125 MCM/Yr from the Sea of Galilee will be sustainable within 10-15 years • Partial restoration of the Jordan River can be achieved at an expense/lost revenues of 3.4 billion NIS over the next 30 years Conclusions

  23. Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M.Sc in Hydroinformatics 054-9444118 gilad@dhvmed.com

More Related