National Hurricane Conference

1. Update on 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006: Building on the Historic 2005 Season” March 20-24, 2006 Mobile, Alabama National Hurricane Conference Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

2. Overview • IHC BACKGROUND • SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES • IHC WORKSHOP • SUMMARY

3. IHC Background • Annual interagency conference: • Hosted by Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteolorolgy • Two major thrusts: • To review the Nation's hurricane forecast and warning program • Make recommendations on how to improve the program • Extensive 4-day agenda (operations and research) • Highlight successes • Focus on challenges • Highlight forthcoming capabilities to meet challenges • Strong scientific (atmospheric/oceanography) focus

4. Successes and Challenges • Successes • Joint Hurricane Test Bed • Joint hurricane field experiments • Advances in modeling / data assimilation • Improved reconnaissance & observing capabilities • Improvements in track and intensity forecast accuracy

5. Successes and Challenges 35-Year Atlantic Track Errors

6. Successes and Challenges Intensity Forecasts On The Upswing

7. Successes and Challenges • Challenges: • Modeling / data assimilation / computing power • Reconnaissance and observing • Improved forecast accuracy for: • Storm intensity / structure • Storm track • Storm surge • Inland flooding • Information dissemination (technology, message) • Incorporating results of social science research into operations

8. IHC Workshop Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer Moderators: Dr. Betty Morrow (Soc Research) Mr. Bryan Norcross (WFOR/CBS) Presenters: Mr. Paul Trotter, NWS (WFO New Orleans / Baton Rouge) Dr. Brenda D. Phillips, Co-Director, Center for the Study of Disasters and Extreme Events, Oklahoma State U. Dr. Velma J. Deleveaux, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. Ms. Naomi Moye, Abraham’s Group

9. IHC Workshop Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer • New proposed communications model • Results of social science research needs to be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program • Tropical cyclone community needs to seek opportunities to identify social science research priorities

10. IHC Workshop Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer • NOAA, in conjunction with its partners, should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications • Research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)

11. IHC Workshop Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer • The OFCM will coordinate bringing together appropriate federal agencies • Begin process of reviewing and improving National hurricane warning “system”

12. Summary • Social science research results becoming “mainstreamed” into Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program • Forthcoming review of messages and hurricane warning “system”