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Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. Download paper here . www.culturalcognition.net. Culture, Rationality, and Climate Change: the Tragedy of the Risk-Perceptions Commons. Individual rationality, group values & climate change opinion. Two hypotheses Data

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slide2

www.culturalcognition.net

Culture, Rationality, and Climate Change: the Tragedy of the Risk-Perceptions Commons

slide3

Individual rationality, group values & climate change opinion

Two hypotheses

Data

Tragedy of the risk perception commons

slide4

Two Hypotheses

  • 1. Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT)
          • 2. Cultural cognition thesis (CCT)
  • “science illiteracy”
  • “bounded rationality”
slide5

Individual rationality, group values & climate change opinion

  • Two hypotheses
  • Data
  • Tragedy of the risk perception commons

slide6

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Greater

perceived risk (z-score)

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide7

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality

Greater

High Sci. litearcy/System 2

perceived risk (z-score)

Low Sci. litearcy/System 1

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide8

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Greater Risk

PIT prediction

PIT prediction

actual variance

actual variance

perceived risk (z-score)

Lesser Risk

low

high

low

high

Science literacy

Numeracy

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide9

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Greater

PIT prediction

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

Actual variance

High Sci lit/numeracy

Lesser

low

high

Scilit/num Scale

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide10

Two Hypotheses

  • 1. Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT)
          • 2. Cultural cognition thesis (CCT)
  • “science illiteracy”
  • “bounded rationality”
slide11

Mary Douglas’s “Group-Grid” Worldview Scheme

Risk Perception Key:

Low Risk

High Risk

Hierarchist

Climate Change

Nuclear Power

Abortion

Environmental Risk

Guns/Gun Control

Compulsory psychiatric treatment

HPV Vaccination

Individualist

Communitarian

Climate Change

Nuclear Power

Abortion

Environmental Risk

Compulsory psychiatriatic treatment

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

Egalitarian

slide12

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Cultural Variance

Greater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

Hierarchical Individualist

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide13

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Greater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

Hierarchical Individualist

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide14

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...

Greater

HighSci lit/numeracy

EgalComm

LowSci/lit numeracy

EgalComm

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide15

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...

Greater

HighSci lit/numeracy

EgalComm

LowSci/lit numeracy

EgalComm

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

LowSci lit/num.

HierarcIndivid

HighSci lit/numeracy

Hierarch Individ

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide16

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

Greater

HighSci lit/numeracy

EgalComm

LowSci/lit numeracy

EgalComm

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

LowSci lit/num.

HierarcIndivid

HighSci lit/numeracy

Hierarch Individ

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide17

Individual rationality, group values & climate change opinion

  • Two hypotheses
  • Data
  • Tragedy of the risk perception commons

slide18

Culturally motivated search & assimilation

  • Cultural source credibility effect
  • Cultural availability effect
  • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning

Mechanisms of cultural cognition

  • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009)
  • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)
  • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)
  • Kahan, D.M., Wittlin, M, Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman D. & Mandel, G. The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons, CCP Working Paper No. 89 (June 24, 2011))
slide19

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

Greater

HighSci lit/numeracy

EgalComm

LowSci/lit numeracy

EgalComm

Low Sci lit/numeracy

perceived risk (z-score)

High Sci lit/numeracy

LowSci lit/num.

HierarcIndivid

HighSci lit/numeracy

Hierarch Individ

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

slide20

Culturally motivated search & assimilation

  • Cultural source credibility effect
  • Cultural availability effect
  • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning

Mechanisms of cultural cognition

  • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009)
  • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)
  • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)
  • Kahan, D.M., Wittlin, M, Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman D. & Mandel, G. The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons, CCP Working Paper No. 89 (June 24, 2011))
slide21

Individual rationality, group values & climate change opinion

  • Two hypotheses
  • Data
  • Tragedy of the risk perception commons

slide22

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment

Go to www.culturalcognition.net!