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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [>90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007.
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Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely[>90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007
Joint statement of 13 national academies of science
(1) Anthropogenic climate change is real (2) Mitigation is urgent (3) Adaptation will be necessary.
Opportunities for climate mitigation through forestry and agriculture in Florida
William D. Nordhaus. 2006. The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States. NBER 12813, 47pp.
Florida -Ground Zero
Miami-Dade County: Nonlinear rise of 3 to 5 ft by 2100.
“We are committed to a pathway that will slow, stop and reverse the growth of US emissions while expanding the economy.”
The market values of offsets and traditional products together determine land use options.
As determined by all market factors, US lands could cumulatively continue to sequester carbon throughout most of this century.
Higher values result in greater mitigation, but soils and forests for any given project become saturated at about 2025.
Stored carbon can be lost
Closed loop carbon
Farrell et al. Science. 2006
This analysis is incomplete because it does not include emissions from land use changes resulting from expanded acreage for biofuel production.
Fargione et al. 2008
Conservation tillage = reduced or no tillage of the land = less carbon loss as emissions and runoff
~ 47% forested
Carlton Ward 2007
Total landscape carbon uptake as determined by growth, harvest, fire, and phosphate mining.
Harvest for fuel, wood products, etc.
Carbon budget analysis is essential for assessing mitigation potential of Florida forests.
Binford et al. 2006. J Geophys Res.
Cushman et al. 2007
Indirect monetary valuation of ecosystem services
Harnessing Farms and Forests in the Low-Carbon Economy: How to Create, Measure, and Verify Greenhouse Gas Offsets
Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Zach Willey and Bill Chameides, editors. Duke University Press, June 2007.
A -No changes in land management, carbon stock does not change
B -No explicit management for offsets, but carbon stock naturally increases
C -Carbon stocks likely to decrease because of projected land use change
Total annual value of portfolio at $20 Mg-1 CO2eq~
$ 465 million
Warming and land use change are synergistic
Land use change generally results in loss of carbon stocks
Pielke, R. A. Science. 2005
California land use amplifies warming
Heterogeneous “forcing” of regional climate
LaDochy et al. 2007. IJC.
Minimum temperatures are lower due to loss of wetlands.
Marshall et al. 2005. Monthly weather review.;
Pielke, RA, Sr.et al. 2007. Ag For Met.
Marshall et al. Nature 2003
Consistent with present trends, the Southeast will warm less than the rest of the US.
North Florida will warm more than south Florida.
Precipitation will decrease in south Florida, but remain approximately constant in north Florida
Friedlingstein, Nature 2008
Conclusion: Management of landscape carbon stocks is not optional.