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Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook. CEET Annual Conference Friday 28 October 2005 Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG) Denis Hart. Overview of presentation. Five areas of discussion: Industry drivers of jobs growth Occupational employment trends

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Job prospects skill shortages and job outlook
Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook

CEET Annual Conference

Friday 28 October 2005

Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG)

Denis Hart

Overview of presentation
Overview of presentation

Five areas of discussion:

  • Industry drivers of jobs growth

  • Occupational employment trends

  • Assessing job prospects for occupations

  • Skill shortages and workforce ageing

  • Job Outlook online - 2005 update

Industry employment projections
Industry employment projections

  • Starting point for job prospects: Monash model employment forecasts for industries

  • Recent employmenttrends: examine changes over long/medium and short term (DEWR trend data)

  • Most ‘employment action’ in service industries: not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing

  • Review Monash forecasts and prepare DEWR projections for around 160 industries (‘anchored’ by previous DEWR projections and Monash forecasts)

  • DEWR industry employment projections are put into Monash model (new set of occupational projections)

Employment growth by industry 5 years to aug 05 000
Employment growth by industry5 years to Aug 05 (‘000)

Industry employment drivers
Industry employment drivers

  • Five key industries are expected to contribute more than four in five new jobs in the five years to 2009-10

  • Strong growth is expected to continue for Property and Business Services and Health and Community Services (the two largest sources of new jobs)

  • Easing in growth is projected for Retail and, more so, Construction, while continuing job gains are projected for Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants

  • Manufacturing employment is expected to fall, and there may be some pick-up for Agriculture

A tale of two industries
A tale of two industries


Health and Community Services

Occupational employment projections
Occupational employment projections

  • Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends

  • Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2004)

  • Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation)

  • Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure

  • Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)

Job prospects

  • Projected employment growth - next five years

  • Recent/historical employment trends (up to ten years)

  • Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries

  • Unemployment rate for the occupation

  • Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes

  • Whether there are skill shortages and workforce ageing

  • Job turnover - workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers) and total vacancies

  • Expected occupational developments -structural change and the impact of technology, including new products

  • Prospects ratings for occupations: very good, good, above average, average and limited

Sales assistants
Sales Assistants

Employment Growth

The graph shows employment growth (per cent) over the past five years and two years for this occupation, compared with all occupations.

Employment Level

The graph shows the employment level ('000) for this occupation for February, 1990 to 2005

Jobs with good prospects





Chefs and Cooks

Customer Service Managers


Finance Managers

Financial Dealers/ Brokers

Forklift Drivers

General/Landscape Gardeners

General Medical Practitioners


Human Resource Professionals

Legal Professionals

Motor Mechanics

Occupational Therapists

Office Assistants/Managers



Policy Analysts

Project/Program Administrators


Sales Assistants

Security Officers/Guards


Jobs with good prospects

Skill shortages in australia
Skill shortages in Australia

Where are the skill shortages?

  • Shortages are widespread in the trades: eg automotive, chefs and cooks,engineering, electrical and (some) construction trades

  • For professionals, skill shortages are mainly evident for nurses and health specialists (eg pharmacist, physiotherapist), child care workers, accountants and civil engineers

    Why do skill shortages matter?

  • Skill shortages can impede industry growth and innovation (and cause upward pressure on wages) and affect the reliability and quality of services (eg health services)

    Information on skill shortages can:

  • Help to understand the nature and causes of skill shortages, develop industry-led and employment service strategies, guide education planning and target skilled migration

Ageing of the workforce aged 45 years and over
Ageing of the workforce % aged 45 years and over

Job outlook 2005 update
Job Outlook - 2005 update

  • Job Outlook has 12 graphs on characteristics, trends and prospects for each occupation and an overview page (around 5,000 graphs for all occupations)

  • In addition to a ‘colour change’ and updating, there is a new graph showing employment growth by gender and full-time/part-time in the past few years)

  • The median age in years has been added to the age profile graph

  • Sample graphs are presented in the following slides and a brochure with sample graphs is available

  • Available

Job outlook navigation
Job Outlook - navigation

  • The right-side navigation for Job Outlook (overview page) has valuable links for each occupation:

    Current vacancies at the local level (on AJS)

    Education and training courses for each region (on Australian Training)

    In-depth occupational information - O*Net from the United States (on Job Explorer)

  • There are also links to information on jobs with good prospects, skill shortages and the educational profile`

  • Hyperlinks can be used todeep link to occupations