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Warning Verification Issues. Rick Smith Performance and Evaluation Meteorologist.

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Warning verification issues l.jpg

Warning Verification Issues

Rick Smith

Performance and Evaluation Meteorologist


Slide2 l.jpg

The government is extremely fond of amassing great quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases.

---Sir Josiah Stamp

Warning Verification


Example l.jpg
EXAMPLE quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Your WFO issued the following tornado warnings for the month:

    Kinney County Issued 1833 Expired 1930

    Uvalde County Issued 2006 Expired 2045

    Medina County Issued 2050 Expired 2145

    Uvalde County

    Blanco County Issued 2056 Expired 2200

    Gillespie County

    Medina County Issued 2144 Expired 2230

Warning Verification


New policies to take effect 1 1 2002 l.jpg
New Policies to Take Effect 1/1/2002 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • HOW WARNINGS WILL BE ENTERED INTO THE DATABASE

  • All data imported into the warning database will be taken directly from the warning

  • Data will not be entered into the database from any other information in the header/text of the warning

Warning Verification


Example 1 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 1 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

Warning Verification


Example 16 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 1 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJANMSC001-003-005-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

Warning Verification


Example 2 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 2 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

Warning Verification


Example 28 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 2 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

Warning Verification


Example 3 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 3 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR

COUNTY 001

COUNTY 003

COUNTY 005

Warning Verification


Example 310 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 3 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR

COUNTY 001

COUNTY 003

COUNTY 005

Warning Verification


Example 4 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 4 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC-001-003-005-007-080200-

-- Extra dash before the county FIPS code

-- Invalid warning – not added to database

Warning Verification


Example 5 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 5 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM THU NOV 8 2001

-- Time zone indicator is missing

-- Invalid warning – not added to database

Warning Verification


Example 6 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 6 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-003-005-007-080200-

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM THU NOV 8 2001

* UNTIL 8000 PM CST

-- Expiration time is not valid

-- Invalid warning – not added to database

Warning Verification


Example 7 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 7 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

700 PM THU NOV 8 2001

-- UGC Code is missing

-- Invalid warning – not added to database

Warning Verification


Example 8 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 8 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

WUUS53 KJAN 080100 SVRJAN MSC001-03-005-007-080200-

-- FIPS only has two digits

-- Invalid warning – not added to database

Warning Verification


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New Rule #2 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • When there are overlapping warnings for a given county, the overlap portion of the earlier warning will be removed.

  • The expiration time of the first warning will be modified to be the second warning’s issuance time.

Warning Verification


Example 117 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 1 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM

  • Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon

    |-----------------------|

    900 1100

    |-------------------------|

    1030 Noon

    BECOMES…

    |-----------------|

    900 1029

    |-------------------------|

    1030 Noon

Warning Verification


Example 118 l.jpg
EXAMPLE 1 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM

  • Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon

    |-----------------------|

    900 1100 An event at 1031 AM =

    |-------------------------| LT of 91 minutes

    1030 Noon

    BECOMES…

    |-----------------|

    900 1029 An event at 1031 AM =

    |-------------------------| LT of 1 minute

    1030 Noon AND…

    the first warning is a FALSE ALARM!

Warning Verification


Srh opposes this change l.jpg
SRH Opposes this Change!! quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

Warning Verification


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Monthly Reporting Reminders quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • WSH wants data by the 14th of the month (report to Kelly 15th)

  • If the 14th falls on a weekend or holiday, they must have data the Friday before

  • I need data one day before their deadline

Warning Verification


Basic definitions l.jpg
Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED

    • Based on county/parish

    • A warning for three counties is counted as THREE county warnings

    • Warning extensions are separate warnings

      • For Example…

        • SVR 100-130 PM

        • SVR extended 129-145 PM

        • Warnings issued = 2

Warning Verification


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Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED

    • At least one event occurring in a warned county during the valid period of a warning results in one verified warning.

    • An event must occur in each county/parish warned for that county warning to verify.

      • For example…

        • FFW for White, Brown and Red counties

        • Events occur in White and Brown counties

        • NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED = 3

        • NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED = 2

Warning Verification


Basic definitions23 l.jpg
Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • AVERAGE LEAD TIME

    • Lead time is computed by subtracting the warning issue time from the time an event meeting reporting criteria is first reported in the county.

    • An event moving into a second county creates a second event. The lead time for this event is based on the time the event first entered the county.

Warning Verification


Average lead time l.jpg
Average Lead Time quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • If one or more events occur in a county not covered by a warning, each missed events is assigned a lead time of zero.

  • Average lead time is computed from all lead times, including zeroes.

    • EXAMPLE:

      • Event 1 LT=12 minutes

      • Event 2 LT= 10 minutes

      • Event 3 LT = ZERO

      • Event 4 LT= 1 minute

      • Average Lead Time = 12 + 10 + 0 + 1 4

        = 5.8 minutes

Warning Verification


Average lead time25 l.jpg
Average Lead Time quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

Average lead time is computed using all events regardless of whether there was a warning or not. If an event occurs with no warning, that event is assigned a lead time of zero.

EXAMPLE:

Event 1 LT=10 minutes

Event 2 LT=10 minutes

Event 3 LT=10 minutes

Event 4 LT=0 minutes (no warning)

Event 5 LT=0 minutes (no warning)

Event 6 LT=0 minutes (no warning)

Avg Lead Time = 10+10+10+0+0+0

6

Warning Verification


Average lead time26 l.jpg
Average Lead Time quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • There are no negative lead times.

  • Lead time is computed from time event begins, not from time impacts/damage occur

    • For example…

      • TOR issued at 500 PM

      • Tornado develops at 505 PM and moves across open country

      • Tornado hits city at 520 PM

      • LT is 5 minutes, NOT 20 minutes

Warning Verification


Basic definitions27 l.jpg
Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • NUMBER OF EVENTS

    • Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event.

      • Total Events = Missed Events + Warned Events

    • An event that crosses county/parish lines is counted as a separate event.

Warning Verification


Basic definitions28 l.jpg
Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • NUMBER OF WARNED EVENTS

    • Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event.

    • For a tornado to count as a warned event, it must be covered by a tornado warning. A tornado occurring in a severe thunderstorm warning does not count as a warned event.

Warning Verification


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Basic Definitions quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Warned events are a subset of all events

  • The number of warned events CANNOT exceed the number of events!

Warning Verification


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Warning Verification quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.


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WSOM J-02 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • “After a significant hydrometeorological event occurs, the NWS must assess its performance. This effort to review capabilities and to seek improvements is one of our highest priorities.”

Warning Verification


Hydrometeorology duty officer manual l.jpg
Hydrometeorology Duty Officer Manual quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Manual from WSH outlining reporting procedures

  • Updated periodically

    • Available at…

      • www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hdom/

      • Username – hydromet

      • Password – manual

Warning Verification


Roml s 01 01 filed with j 02 l.jpg
ROML S-01-01 filed with J-02 quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Details reporting procedures for field offices

  • All reports go to Significant Event Reporting Line 24 hours a day

    • 817-978-1100 Ext 197

Warning Verification


What is a significant event l.jpg
What is a Significant Event? quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Basically…

    • Any event(tornado, flood, ice storm, etc) that results in

      • At least ONE fatality

      • Five or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization

      • Significant structural damage

      • Extensive media attention

Warning Verification


What is a significant event35 l.jpg
What is a Significant Event? quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Basically…

    • Any event that results in

      • At least ONE fatality

      • Five or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization

      • Significant structural damage

      • Extensive media attention

Warning Verification


Media attention l.jpg
Media Attention quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Minor events may require report IF media coverage draws attention to it

    • Internet has made this more common

  • We will use restraint in reporting marginal events

    • WSH may request information, if needed

Warning Verification


What is a significant event37 l.jpg
What is a Significant Event? quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • We do NOT report…

    • Individual lightning fatalities

    • Heat fatalities less than five

    • Traffic fatalities not DIRECTLY caused by weather

Warning Verification


What is a significant event38 l.jpg
What is a Significant Event? quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Also…

    • Aviation incidents are reported via the OAV

    • Marine incidents may require BOTH an OAV and an FTR memo

      • If marine incident occurs within range of “public-type” warning and advisory products

Warning Verification


Reporting procedures l.jpg
Reporting Procedures quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • WFO calls Ext 197

  • Voice mail message triggers a page to PEM

  • PEM retrieves message and determines the significance of the event

    • Is criteria for a report met?

    • Does event warrant notifying

      SRH leaders?

Warning Verification


Reporting the event to wsh l.jpg
Reporting the Event quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays. to WSH

  • If the event is significant…

    • Notify MetWatch Office

    • MetWatch staff will be paged and will respond (similar to SRH system)

    • They will condense our report down to a one page summary for Kelly

Warning Verification


Reporting the event to wsh41 l.jpg
Reporting the Event to WSH quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • MetWatch Office needs info by 7AM

    • Report to Kelly by 8 AM

      • May require a report to NOAA

        • May also require report to DOC, White House

  • They are MOST interested in…

    • Performance statistics

      • When was the warning issued?

      • How much lead time?

Warning Verification


The sig ops list l.jpg
The SIG-OPS List quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • FTR memos distributed via SIG-OPS

    • Over 130 people

      • RD’s, Regional MSD/HSD personnel, NOAA Public Affairs, NCEP Centers, WSH, NWS Senior Management

Warning Verification


Composing an ftr memo l.jpg
Composing an FTR Memo quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • MEMORANDUM FOR: The Record

  • FROM: Richard Smith W/SR11x1

  • SUBJECT: What, Where, When

    • Killer Tornado in Tuscaloosa, AL 12/16/00

  • EVENT: Describe the event

    • Powerful thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes across Alabama on Saturday. One of these tornadoes caused extensive damage and killed at least seven people just south of Tuscaloosa, AL. The tornado began around 1258 PM CST.

Warning Verification


Composing an ftr memo44 l.jpg
Composing an FTR Memo quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • LOCATION: where was the event?

    • Just South of Tuscaloosa along Highway 69. Other damage was reported in the Halls and Englewood communities. All of these communities are in Tuscaloosa County, AL

  • OFFICES: which offices were affected?

  • DEATHS: number, age, gender

  • INJURIES: number, age, gender

  • DAMAGE: extent

    • Extensive damage was reported with numerous homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. A mobile home park was especially hard hit, as was a new shopping center under construction.

Warning Verification


Composing an ftr memo45 l.jpg
Composing an FTR Memo quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • WATCHES: type, valid time, lead time

    • Tornado watch #808 valid 10AM to 4PM CST. Lead time to the event – approximately 3 hours.

  • WARNINGS: type, valid/lead times

    • Tornado warning issued for Tuscaloosa County at 1240 PM CST. Lead time to the tornado was approximately 18 minutes.

  • SERVICE: how did we do? NOW, SVS, special actions, staffing problems, etc

Warning Verification


Composing an ftr memo46 l.jpg
Composing an FTR Memo quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • SYSTEMS: any problems, highlight significant benefits

  • RESPONSE: local actions, media coverage, etc

  • DISCLAIMER:

    • Any times listed pertaining to event occurrences and lead times associated with outlooks, watches and warnings are based on the best information available at the time this preliminary report was prepared. Subsequently, these data may be changed as time permits a more thorough investigation of the circumstances surrounding the event.

Warning Verification


Tips on writing the ftr l.jpg
Tips on Writing the FTR quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Lead Times

    • To the BEGINNING OF THE EVENT, not the deaths, injuries, etc

Subject: Tornado in Texas Author: Kenneth Graham at W-SR-SRH Date: 5/12/99 8:01 AM

Attached is information concerning injuries associated with a tornado in Mason County Texas yesterday evening

“Tornado warnings issued for Mason County at 608 PM valid until 655 PM. Tornado warning was re-issued for this slow moving supercell at 650 PM valid until 755 PM. Time of injuries estimated at 655 PM.”

Subject: Re: Tornado in Texas Date: Wed, 12 May 1999 10:57:00 From: "Jack Kelly“ To: "Kenneth Graham"

Thanks; however, when did the tornado occur?

From Geneva, Switzerland!

Warning Verification


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Tips on Writing the FTR quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Highlight accomplishments of the WFO

    • Hazardous Weather Outlooks, not SPC outlooks

Warning Verification


To summarize l.jpg
To Summarize… quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.

  • Significant Event Reports are important, but can tax resources during active weather periods

  • Routine events can be handled by 1-2 people

  • Big events will require a team effort to get the job done

Warning Verification


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