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Predicting the Future by Understanding Current and Past Students. TASFAA April 2014. Objective. Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention, improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. What is analytics? .

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objective
Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.Objective

Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus

and how it links to

greater retention,

improved graduation rates

and

enhanced repayment.

slide4

“Analytics is the use of data, statistical analysis, and explanatory predictive models to gain insights and to act on complex issues.”

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide6

1 in every 4 students leaves college

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide7

½of freshmen

drop out

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide8

$13.3 Million Lost to Attrition

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide9

$6.2 billion in state appropriated funds

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide10

State allocations changing -- supporting graduation

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slide11

Sound business principles emphasize higher education institutions much focus on retaining students to generate an acceptable rate of return to maintain financial viability.

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introducing
Introducing…

Tom

And, Molly

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what you should know about analytics
What you should know about analytics

Analytics:

  • Provide evaluation of data to determine patterns
  • Helps mine and connect vast amounts of information
  • Are being used a schools nation-wide
  • Offer a predictive view of upcoming challenges
  • Make available a means to target available resources

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

objective1
Objective

Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus

and how it links to

greater retention,

improved graduation rates

and

enhanced repayment.

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

four step process
Four Step Process

Step 2

Define

Research Questions

Step 1

Build Data Warehouse

Step 3

Modeling

& Reports

Step 4

Tracking

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 1 building a data warehouse of student information
STEP 1: Building a Data Warehouse of Student Information

The process starts with organizing your student data

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 2 define your research project and analyze data
STEP 2: Define Your Research Project and Analyze Data

Turn raw data into meaningful information

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

your school s data can help you answer important questions
Your school’s data can help you answer important questions
  • What has been the impact of various recruiting strategies and/or policies on bringing students to campus?
  • What are the best high schools, counties and states to target for producing graduates? What characteristics make up our recruiting efficiency profile?
  • Where did students go who were admitted but did not matriculate?
  • Which strategies have produced the most enrollees and graduates? What has happened to the "Trustee Admits"?
  • How much does your institution spend in institutional aid to produce a successful graduate? How much is wasted on dropouts?
  • What are the characteristics of successful graduates versus dropouts? What high school GPA and ACT levels does it really take to be successful at your institution? Which is more important?
  • Which majors produce the most graduates?

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 3 benchmark reports and predictive modeling
STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling

Custom reports that provide detail and analytics to make strategic decisions

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 3 benchmark reports and predictive modeling1
STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling

Inceptia examples:

  • Financial Aid Statistical Reports

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 3 benchmark reports and predictive modeling2
STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling

Inceptia examples:

  • Enrollment Management Reports

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 3 benchmark reports and predictive modeling3
STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling
  • Predictive modeling uses past information to help predict the future
    • Rank students by degree of risk and identify risk factors for each student – early intervention is key
    • Effectively use your resources to ensure the greatest results with students

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 3 benchmark reports and predictive modeling4
STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling

Inceptia examples:

  • Student Success Profile

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

step 4 ongoing analysis to measure success
STEP 4: Ongoing Analysis to Measure Success

Effective research and analytics is not “one and done”

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

roadblocks
Roadblocks
  • Affordability
    • Expenses of staff, training and tools
  • Re-directing current resources
    • Accountability requirements mean IR is focused on reporting
  • Data
    • Data quality, data ownership, data access and data standardization

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

creating success
Creating Success
  • Map out strategy and planning
  • Look for an early win
  • Invest in people over tools
  • Don’t wait for perfection
  • Partnerships and communication are key
  • Plan for an infrastructure that supports analytics
  • Benchmark to provide context

Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

slide30

Default Prevention:

Enhanced Data Studies

what do we do we don t
What Do We Do? We Don’t …
  • Don’t get lost in everyone else’s assumptions
  • Don’t guess
  • Don’t rationalize
  • Don’t pretend default is going away

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

what we can do is establish the facts
What We Can Do Is Establish The Facts!!
  • Examine the Past
  • Study the Present

32

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

borrower data sources
Borrower Data Sources
  • Available with CDR package in both cycles
  • Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL
  • Historical data
  • Extract & Report format
  • May be ordered as a file in NSLDS

Loan Record Detail Report

School Portfolio Report

Available by request or scheduled in NSLDS

Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL

Includes more data fields than LRDR

2 Extract formats available

Contains data for 6 years

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

default aversion options
Default Aversion Options

34

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

loan record detail report
Loan Record Detail Report

Student identifiers

Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan

Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status

Usage code for CDR: Denominator, numerator, eligible not counted, neither

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

school portfolio report

Borrower Data

School Portfolio Report
  • Examine the Past
  • Study the Present
  • Look to the Future

36

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

school portfolio data spr
School Portfolio Data (SPR)
  • Student identifiers
  • Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan
  • Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status; academic level
  • Expanded lender, servicer, and guarantor data including original and current
  • Interest rate
  • Repayment plan
  • Principal & Interest
  • R2T4, if applicable
  • Delinquency
  • Deferment & Forbearance
  • Rehabilitation
  • Consolidation
  • PLUS

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

using the data
Using The Data
  • Examine the Past
  • Study the Present
  • Look to the Future
  • Plan based on Facts

38

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

making plans for future cohorts
Making Plans for Future Cohorts
  • Delinquency
  • Repayment Plans
  • Consolidation
  • Rehabilitation

39

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

enhanced default prevention data studies
Enhanced Default PreventionData Studies

Establishes your Patterns and Trends

Needs Consistent Reviewing

Points the Direction for Default Prevention Strategies

Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

slide42

Paul Mittelhammer

VP Business Development National Strategy

404-929-0251

paulm@inceptia.org

Inceptia.org

slide43

Cherry D. Johnson

TSAC Default Aversion Field Representative

731-607-9564

cherry.johnson@tn.gov

tn.gov/tsac