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International workshop On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008. titolo. Mediterranean climate: trends and projections. Piero Lionello, University of Salento, Italy. International workshop

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titolo

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

titolo

Mediterranean climate:

trends and projections

Piero Lionello, University of Salento, Italy

sommario

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Sommario
  • Contents
  • Remarks on the Mediterranean climate
  • A review of present trends
  • Information from climate projections
koeppen
koeppen

Vladimir Petrovič Köppen

Russian geographer , botanist and climatologist

(S. Petersburg,  1846 – Graz, 1940)

classificazone 1

Main groups

A tropical climate

B arid climate:

C mid latitude temperate climate

D mid latitude cold climate

E polar climate

H mountain climate

Classificazone 1

Sub-groups :

S steppeW desert f wet w winter dry season

s summer dry season m: rain forest

Af, Am: monsoon, tropical rain forest. Aw: savannah

BS: steppe. BW: desert.

Cw: temperate mid latitude with dry winter Cf: temperate mid latitude without dry season Cs: temperate mid latitude with dry summer.

Df: cold rainy during the whole year.

ET: tundra. EF: frost

3rd level classification

a, b,c hot summer (T warmest month > 22°C), warm summer (warmest month < 22°C), cold summer (T less than 4 months > 10°C (climates C and D).

d: very cold winter (T coldest month < -38°C (climate D).

h, k: hot, cold (average year temperature higher/lower than 18°C < (climate B).

koeppen global
Koeppen global

Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger

climate classification

M. C. Peel, B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 4, 439–473, 2007

The 30 possible climate types are divided (without accounting for H)into:

3 tropical (Af, Am and Aw), 4 arid (BWh, BWk, BSh and BSk), 9 temperate (Csa,

Csb, Csc, Cfa, Cfb, Cfc, Cwa, Cwb and Cwc), 12 cold (Dsa, Dsb, Dsc, Dsd, Dfa, Dfb,

Dfc, Dfd, Dwa, Dwb, Dwc and Dwd) and 2 polar (ET and EF).

med climate

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Med climate

What is the Mediterranean Climate ?

koeppen eu
Koeppen eu

10 out of 30 Köppen climate types are present around the Mediterranean Sea

koeppen considerazioni
Koeppen considerazioni
  • Csa/Csb temperate climate with dry hot/warm summer season
  • Cfa/Cfb temperate climate without dry season and with hot/warm
  • Dsa, Dfb cold climate, without dry season but warm summer and with hot dry summer
  • BWh BWk hot and cold desert, BSh BSk hot and cold steppe

Large areas of the Mediterranean region do not have the “CsA/CsbMediterranean” climate

… and there is some Mediterranean climate outside the Mediterranean region

tise t past

Past winter temperature (DJF)

Tise T past

Luterbacher J. et al. (2005), Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: a review In P.Lionello, P.Malanotte-Rizzoli, R.Boscolo (eds) Mediterranean Climate Variability. Amsterdam: Elsevier (NETHERLANDS).

warmest coldest
Warmest-coldest

Luterbacher J. et al. (2005),

tise prec past
Tise prec past

Past winter precipitation (DJF)

Luterbacher J. et al. (2005),

driest wettest
Driest-wettest

Luterbacher J. et al. (2005),

considerazioni time variabiity

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Considerazioni: time variabiity

Large variability at inter-annual and inter-decadal scale is a basic characteristic of the Mediterranean region

…However, the temperature increase during the second half of the 20th century in unprecedented in historical records

tendenze 20mo secolo

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Tendenze 20mo secolo

Focus on 20th century

Graphics based on CRU climatology, interpolated from station data to 0.5 degree lat/lon grid ( New, M., M. Hulme and P. Jones, 1999: Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate, 12, 829-856.

elena wet season
Elena wet season

Wet season precipitation trend (1950-1999)

Acknowledgement: Xoplaki, 2002; Xoplaki et al., 2004

mm/50years

elena dry season
Elena dry season

Dry season precipitation trend (1950-1999)

Acknowledgement: Xoplaki, 2002; Xoplaki et al., 2004

mm/50years

comment tmp and pre
Comment tmp and pre

Though there is a possibly widespread over-perception of precipitation trends, reduction of (winter) precipitation is observed over large areas of the Mediterranean region. The signal for temperature is much clearer than for precipitation: there is positive trend with an acceleration during the last part of the 20th century involving the whole Mediterranean region

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

models
Models

Climate model projections

Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions.

From IPCC 4th AR

scenarios

From IPCC 4th AR

Scenarios
  • CO2 emissions in SRES (Nakicenovic et al, 2000) :
  • A-B rispettivamente forte e ridotto fabbisogno energetico;
  • 1-2 rispettivamente sviluppo mondiale omogeneo e eterogeneo.
model mean reliability
Model mean reliability

From IPCC 4th AR

Figure TS.23. (a) Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black line) and as obtained from simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The thick red curve shows the multi-model ensemble mean and the thin lighter red curves show the individual simulations. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. (b) As in (a), except that the simulated global mean temperature anomalies are for natural forcings only. The thick blue curve shows the multi-model ensemble mean and the thin lighter blue curves show individual simulations. Each simulation was sampled so that coverage corresponds to that of the observations. {Figure 9.5}

mean projection
Mean projection

From IPCC 4th AR

Time series of globally averaged (left) surface warming (surface air temperature change, °C) and (right) precipitation change (%) from the various global coupled models for the scenarios A2 (top), A1B (middle) and B1 (bottom). Numbers in parentheses following the scenario name represent the number of simulations shown. Values are annual means, relative to the 1980 to 1999 average from the corresponding 20th-century simulations, with any linear trends in the corresponding control run simulations removed. A three-point smoothing was applied. Multi-model (ensemble) mean series are marked with black dots. See Table 8.1 for model details.

ensemble mean med

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Ensemble mean med

Ensemble mean projections for the Mediterranean region

Using GLOBAL models

list of models
List of models

Grid interval

20C

B1

A1B

A2

MODEL

CCMA-3-T47

~2.7 deg

5 4 4 2

CNRM-CM3

~2.8 deg

1 1 1 1

CSIRO-MK3

~2.3 deg

2 1 1 1

GFDL-CM2-0

~2.2 deg

3 1 1 1

GFDL-CM2-1

~2.2 deg

3 0 1 1

GISS-AOM

~3.5 deg

2 2 2 0

GISS-E-R

~4.5 deg

1 1 2 1

INMCM3

~4.5 deg

1 1 1 1

IPSL-CM4

~3.0 deg

1 1 1 1

MIROC3-2H

~1.2 deg

1 1 1 0

MIROC3-2M

~2.8 deg

3 3 3 3

MIUB-ECHO-G

~3.2 deg

5 3 3 3

MPI-ECHAM5

~2.3 deg

3 3 2 3

MRI-CGCM2

~2.8 deg

5 5 5 5

NCAR-CCSM3

~1.4 deg

8 8 6 4

NCAR-PCM1

~2.8 deg

4 2 3 4

UKMO-HADCM3

~3.0 deg

1 1 1 1

List of models, grid interval (atmosphere) and experiments used in this work. 20C indicates experiments for the 20c century, B1, A1B and A2, experiments for the 21st century under forcing deriving from the corresponding IPCC emission scenarios. The grid interval is approximate, as it may vary across latitudes and may be different in the longitude and latitude directions. More detailed information on models and experiments is available the PCMDI web site http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov for.

risoluzione
risoluzione

space resolution !!!!

One obvious limitation of these simulations is resolution. This might have important consequences for the climate change signal in region where it shows a sharp gradient, likely associate with the geomorphology of the region: precipitation in the middle east in Summer and Fall, precipitation along the northern boundary of the Mediterranean region (Pyrenees, Alps, Balkans).

cc pre b1
CC_Pre B1

Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, B1 scenario

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Figure 6

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

cc pre a1b
CC_Pre A1B

Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Figure 4

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

cc pre a2
CC_Pre A2

Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A2 scenario

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Figure 7

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

cc tmp a1b
CC_tmp_A1B

Temperature change (C, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

Figure 5

tmp prec total
Tmp-prec total

(2081-2100) minus (1961-1980)

MGME ensemble average change in mean precipitation (upper panel) and mean surface air temperature (lower panel) for the full Mediterranean region, the four seasons and different scenario. The changes are calculated between the periods 2081-2100 and 1961-1980 and include only land points. Units are % of 1961-1980 value for precipitation and degrees C for temperature

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

cc slp
CC_SLP

SLP change (mb, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

MAM

DJF

JJA

SON

cc gph500
CC_GPH500

500 Gph change (mb, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Figure 3

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

slide53

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

caveaut
caveaut

(1981-2000) minus (1961-1980)

Observed (CRU data) and MGME ensemble average change in precipitation (upper panel) and surface air temperature (lower panel) for the four seasons over the full Mediterranean region (land only) 1981-2000 minus 1961-1980. Units are % of 1961-1980 value for precipitation and degrees C for temperature.

from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007

modelli regionali
Modelli regionali

Regional Climate models

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

slide56

RegCM experiment design

Giorgi, F., X. Bi and J.S. Pal , 2004 a and b

  • Global Model: Hadley Centre HadAMH
    • Dx = 1.25 lat x 1.875 lon
    • SST from HadCM3 run
    • Coupled sulfur model
  • Regional model: ICTP RegCM
    • Dx = 50 km
    • SST, GHG and sulfate from HadAMH
    • aerosol effects
  • Simulation periods
    • 1961-1990 : Reference run
    • 2071-2100 : Scenario run
  • Scenarios: A2, B2
slide58

CTR

RegCM model

CRU

Observed climatology

S

E

A

S

O

N

D

R

Y

S

E

A

S

O

N

W

E

T

slide59

Precipitation A2-CTR

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Aug

Feb

May

Nov

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

mm

slide60

Mediterranean River basins

Rhone

Po

Croatian rivers

Greek rivers

Ebro

Turkish rivers

gr tu rivers
Gr+Tu rivers

Greece and Turkey

-

Evaporation

Precipitation

Drier autumn and (partially) spring for Greek and Turkish rivers

Water balance

(P-E)

=

slide63

Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural

areas by statistical downscaling

L. Palatella · M. Miglietta · P. Paradisi · P. Lionello (submitted)

slide64

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

Population growth !?!?!?!

slide65

1955

1970

1985

2000

2015

2030

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

slide66

1955

1970

1985

2000

2015

2030

1955

1970

1985

2000

2015

2030

considerazioni time variabiity1
Considerazioni: time variabiity

Large variability at inter-annual and inter-decadal scale is a basic characteristic of the Mediterranean region…However, the temperature increase during the second half of the 20th century in unprecedented in historical records

Though there is a possibly widespread over-perception of precipitation trends, reduction of (mainly winter) precipitation is observed over large areas of the Mediterranean region. The signal for temperature is much clearer than for precipitation: there is positive trend with an acceleration during the last part of the 20th century involving the whole Mediterranean region

slide68

Reduced precipitation is a very likely consequence of anthropogenic climate change in large parts of the Mediterranean (including Middle east)

Evidences from global models are not flawless. They need further confirmation, possibly based on regional analysis

Regionalization techniques (dynamical versus statistical) do not always agree

Concerning impacts, other factors (such as population dynamics) are likely to have larger effects than climate change (multi-sector approach is needed)

slide69

International workshop

On Climate Change in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

University of Cairo, 9-11 June 2008

THANK YOU

for your attention