Carbon‘s Global Pathways

1. Carbon‘s Global Pathways

2. The Global Carbon Cycle: Overview • Carbon Stocks • Carbon Fluxes Searching answers to open questions: CarboEurope-IP • General info and structure of the project • The Ecosystem Component • The Atmospheric Component • The regional Experiment • Integration and Modelling Structure of the Talk: Talk Overview

3. Global carbon stocks [Pg C] Atmosphere 750 + 3 Gt C/year Land Plants 560 „Active Carbon“ Soils 1500 Oceans 38,000 Plankton 3 Lithosphere Fossil fuels 5,000-10,000 Carbonates 60,000,000 Org. Sediments 15,000,000(Gashydrates 10,000) Global C stocks Schlesinger (1997) Academic Press, p.359 Berner und Lasag (1989), in Haider (1996)

4. Global biosphere carbon stocks Global C stocks

5. Global vegetation carbon stocks Global C stocks

6. Global soil carbon stocks Global C stocks

7. Forest carbon stocks Ciais, pers. comm. Global C stocks

8. Summary: Carbon stocks • Most C is stored in the lithosphere – inactive • „Active“ C ( reactive in <1000 years): atmosphere, biosphere, ocean • „Active“ C reservoirs: ocean >> soil > atmosphere > land vegetation • Land biomass: most C in tropical forests • Soil C: most in organic soils and boreal regions Global C stocks

9. Global carbon fluxes [Gt C/yr] 6 Atmosphere 3-7 yrs + 3 Gt C/yr 60 122 Land Plants 50 yrs 60 1 90 92 Rivers DOC 0.4 DIC 0.4 Soils 5-104 yrs Net destruction of vegetation Oceans 2-103 yrs + 2 Gt C/yr Plankton Sedimentation 0.1 Global C fluxes Fluxes in Gt C/yr Mean residence time in years

10. Disturbance Fast out – slow in Disturbances cause a sudden release of C, the subsequent accumulation needs much more time. Ecosystem C stock Time Global C fluxes

11. Evolution of global C fluxes Global C fluxes

12. Summary: Carbon fluxes • Net C exchange between reservoirs very small against gross C fluxes • CO2 increase in atmosphere is 3 Gt C/year = 40% of anthropogenic emissions • C fluxes in biosphere: „Slow-in, fast-out“ • Evolution of sinks in the future? • Where exactly lies the „missing sink“? • How do we measure it as accurate as possible? • How will humans influence the behaviour of sinks? • Which role will the biosphere play concerning the mitigation of global change? Global C fluxes

13. 600 500 400 300 200 100 Tg C/year 0 -100 -200 Bottom-up estimate -300 -400 -500 -600 Forest, Grass- land Crop- land Peat use Janssens et al., 2003 Science woodland Open questions: closing the European C balance European C fluxes

14. European Research Project within 6th Framework Programme • Duration: January 2004 to December 2008 • Budget: ~30 Mio. Euros, of which 16 Mio. are support from the European Commission • 67 partner institutes in 17 countries, ~30 associated partners • Project Coordination: MPI BGC CE-IP Introduction

15. Overall objective Understand and quantify the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe and associated uncertainties at local, regional and continental scale. Integrating the natural sciences and human emissions Target: Comprehensive regional C balance Daily-monthly at “Eurogrid” resolution (10-100km x 10-100km) Continental annual uncertainty 10% CE-IP Introduction

16. Key questions ”The European Carbon Balance” • Geographical pattern • Change over time ”Processes and Mechanisms” • Controlling mechanisms of carbon cycling in ecosystems • Impact of climate change and variability, and changing land management ”Detection of Kyoto commitments” • Signal of CO2 reduction and C sequestration in European atmosphere over five-years period Talk Overview

17. The vision for 2015 • Regional operational carbon monitoring for • detection of climate trends and management • detection of human signal in atmosphere • guidance to control mitigation efficiency • Carbon nowcasting system • In situ observations • Remote sensing products • Models, CDAS Biosphere fluxes, Rödenbeck et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2003 CE-IP Introduction

18. The 4 components of CarboEurope-IP • Ecosystem Component: ecosystem level measurements • Atmospheric Component: continental scale atmospheric measurements • Regional Experiment:reducing uncertainties at scaling • Continental Integration Component: comprehensive assessment of the European Carbon Balance CE-IP Introduction

19. Multiple constraint approach CE-IP Introduction

20. Clusters for Ecosystem Measurements Site Classification: Forest Grassland/Wetland Cropland Site Clusters: Main Sites Associated Sites Verification Sites CE-IP Ecosystems

21. Ecosystem measurements: Quantifying C stocks and fluxes • Ecosystem C stocks: basis for detecting C stock changes over time • biomass • soil • Ecosystem fluxes (eddy covariance) • CO2 • water vapour • energy • Compartment C fluxes • soil respiration • litter fall • human export/import CE-IP Ecosystems

22. Ecosystem measurements: Quantifying C stocks and fluxes • Ecosystem C stocks: basis for detecting C stock changes over time • biomass • soil • Ecosystem fluxes (eddy covariance) • CO2 • water vapour • energy • Compartment C fluxes • soil respiration • litter fall • human export/import CE-IP Ecosystems

23. Ecosystem measurements: Quantifying C stocks and fluxes • Ecosystem C stocks: basis for detecting C stock changes over time • biomass • soil • Ecosystem fluxes (eddy covariance) • CO2 • water vapour • energy • Compartment C fluxes • soil respiration • litter fall • human export/import CE-IP Ecosystems

24. Achievements: The Ecosystem Database CE-IP Ecosystems

25. Processes • What are the controlling mechanisms of carbon cycling in European ecosystems? How do external parameters such as climate change and variability, and changing land management affect the European carbon balance? Ciais et al. 2005 Magnani et al. 2007

26. Climate drivers of grassland and wetland annual GPP at CarboEurope IP sites Log(GPP) = 2.27 + 0.377. Log (Temp) + 0.614. Log (Precip) (n=50, r2=0.705, P<0.0001)

27. Spatial distribution of NBP of grasslands in Europe (data upscaling) Assuming a management similar to mean site management NEXT STEP: map NBP using agricultural management based on statistics

28. Variability between years and under different crops (Gruenwald, pers. comm. to Christine Moureaux)

29. Are croplands as big a source of C as we thought?

30. Atmosphere concentration network • 3 laboratories for air sample analysis • Background CO2 observing sites around the world • Regionaly dense stations network in Western Europe • Transect of aircraft sites across Eurasia • New network of tall towers CE-IP Atmosphere

31. Atmosphere concentration network • Background observing sites:CO2 gradient over European continent: 2-6 ppmv laboratories for air sample analysis • The main challenge: • extremely accurate and precise measurements! • Extremely stable standards! CE-IP Atmosphere

32. Verification of emission reductions • Can the effective CO2 reduction in the atmosphere in response to fossil fuel emission reduction and enhanced carbon sequestration on land be detected in the context of the Kyoto commitments of Europe? Levin and Rödenbeck 2007

33. Atmosphere: recent results Inversion from monthly mean smoothed observations Abnormal source of 0.5 Gt CO2 in 2003 CE-IP Atmosphere

34. Heat and drought wave 2003 • 30% reduction in photosynthesis • 0.5 Pg C released to atmosphere in 2003 • reversed effect of four years of carbon uptake • similar, but less pronounced situation in 2005 with different geographical pattern (losses mainly in Eastern Europe and the Iberian peninsula) • two main contributing factors: rainfall deficit in Eastern Europe, extreme summer heat in Western Europe • An increase in future drought events could turn temperate ecosystem into carbon sources. CE-IP Atmosphere

35. Regional experiment: CERES study region CE-IP Regional http://carboregional.mediasfrance.org/

36. Why a regional experiment? • quantification of the geographical distribution of sources and sinks for carbon • quantify the carbon balance at this „missing scale“. • combine the upscaling of local measurements with the downscaling of atmospheric measurements. • testing of sampling strategies to lay the foundation for an optimised observation network across Europe CE-IP Regional

37. Why a regional experiment? • quantification of the geographical distribution of sources and sinks for carbon • quantify the carbon balance at this „missing scale“. • combine the upscaling of local measurements with the downscaling of atmospheric measurements. • testing of sampling strategies to lay the foundation for an optimised observation network across Europe CE-IP Regional

38. Why a regional experiment? • quantification of the geographical distribution of sources and sinks for carbon • quantify the carbon balance at this „missing scale“. • combine the upscaling of local measurements with the downscaling of atmospheric measurements. • testing of sampling strategies to lay the foundation for an optimised observation network across Europe CE-IP Regional

39. Why a regional experiment? • quantification of the geographical distribution of sources and sinks for carbon • quantify the carbon balance at this „missing scale“. • combine the upscaling of local measurements with the downscaling of atmospheric measurements. • testing of sampling strategies to lay the foundation for an optimised observation network across Europe CE-IP Regional

40. Regional experiment – following airmasses CE-IP Regional

41. Regional experiment – modelling results Valleys fill up with CO2 respired during night CE-IP Regional

42. AGRICUL. AREA FOREST AREA Regional Component Conclusions • Observations show generally large spatial variations in [CO2] and fluxes • Observations show some decoupling of fluxes and concentrations • Modelling suggest that they can be simulated…., but large variations still exist between mesoscale models • Results help quantify representation error and suggest scaling rules • Inverse techniques at this scale are very much front edge science and developed and tested against our observations

43. Surface variability: annual NEE Jarosz et al.(2006).

44. Boundarylayer variation CERES September 2007 Campaign September 15 2007: repeated cross section flights between coast/biscarosse tower & near La Cap Sud 8:30-9:30 UT 9:30-10:30 UT 15:00-16:00 UT

45. 30 2 potential temperature tower pot. T. [degC] altitude [km] 2 400 CO2 16 CO2 [ppm] 0 altitude [km] 13 2 specific humidity 375 0 sp. h. [g/kg] altitude [km] 0 0 Boundary layer variation 8:30-9:30 UT 9:30-10:30 UT 15:00-16:00 UT 8:30-9:30 UT 9:30-10:30 UT 15:00-16:00 UT

46. Boundary layer variation: Integratrion of data 2005 campaign

47. Continental Integration • Establish carbon balance of Europe with existing tools and existing data • Target time period: 1998-2002, anomaly of 2003 • Top-down method: • Atmospheric concentration data • 2 modeling systems (INV-BGC, INV-LSCE) • Bottom-up method: • prognostic ecosystem models (LPJ, BIOME-BGC, ORCHIDEE) • diagnostic, RS-driven models (MOD17+, ANN, PIXGRO) CE-IP Integration

48. The aim: combining all data streams CE-IP Integration

49. The current status: comparison and evaluation CE-IP Integration

50. Top-down and bottom-up models Average seasonal cycle 1998-2002 over continental Europe CE-IP Integration