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Framework for Phase 2 Modeling. Function of the Model: A platform for discussing alternative growth scenarios in Metro Boston and the associated tradeoffs Five Study Areas: People and Communities Getting Around Buildings and Landscapes

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Framework for phase 2 modeling
Framework for Phase 2 Modeling

Function of the Model: A platform for discussing alternative growth scenarios in Metro Boston and the associated tradeoffs

Five Study Areas: People and Communities

Getting Around

Buildings and Landscapes

Air, Water and Wildlife

Prosperity


Phase 2 baseline model
Phase 2: Baseline Model

  • Narrative:

  • Qualitative Narrative

  • Quantitative Narrative

  • Computer Model: Community Viz

  • 15-25 Components

  • 7-15 Components

  • 3-6

  • Components


Scenarios agents
Scenarios Agents

  • Steering Committee

  • Inter Issue Taskforce

  • Technical and Content Liaison

  • Consultant Team

  • Public and Leadership Dialogues


Three ways to build scenarios
Three Ways to Build Scenarios

  • Inductive Approach-Data driven framework

  • Deductive Approach- Start with framework and fill in data

  • Incremental Approach- Start with “Official Future” fill in framework and data


Regional population projection

Regional Population Projection

November 2005

MAPC


Framework for phase 2 modeling

1990 Population by Cohort (Age, Sex, Race)

Death Rates

Birth Rates

Future Natural Increase

2000 Population by Cohort

Regional

Population

Projection

Difference = Migration by Cohort

Apply Migration Rates

Future Migration

Future Regional Population (Regional Control)

Trend of Municipal

Total Share

Future Municipal Total Population

Municipal

Population

Location

Trend of Municipal

Share by Age

Future Municipal Population by Age


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Cohort-Component Method

Birth

Migration

Base

Year

Population

Projected

Year

Population

Survival

MAPC

August 10, 2005


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Cohort-Component Method

Birth

Migration

Birth Rate

Net Migration Rate

Child

Bearing

Cohorts

New

Births

Base

Year

Population

Projected

Year

Population

Survived

& Aged

Population

Net

Remaining

Population

=

Every

Cohort

Survival Rate

Survival

MAPC

August 10, 2005



Survival rate and aging
Survival Rate and Aging

  • Age-sex-race specific survival rate

  • As of year 2000


Framework for phase 2 modeling

1990 Population by Cohort (Age, Sex, Race)

Death Rates

Birth Rates

Future Natural Increase

2000 Population by Cohort

Regional

Population

Projection

Difference = Migration by Cohort

Apply Migration Rates

Future Migration

Future Regional Population (Regional Control)

Trend of Municipal

Total Share

Future Municipal Total Population

Municipal

Population

Location

Trend of Municipal

Share by Age

Future Municipal Population by Age





Calibration based on year 2000
Calibration based on Year 2000

* Calibration shifts up or down the line to pass through the data of year 2000.



Framework for phase 2 modeling

Regional

Employment

Projection

National Employment Total

Trend of Regional

Total Share

Regional Employment Total

Trend of Regional

Sector Share

Regional Employment By Sector

Municipal

Employment

Location

Trend of Municipal

Total Share

Total Municipal Employment

Trend of Municipal

Sectoral Share

Municipal Employment By Sector


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Shift-Share & Two-waySectoral Projection

National Total Employment 1982-2004


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Shift-Share & Two-waySectoral Projection

Regional Share of National Employment 1990-2004


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Shift-Share & Two-waySectoral Projection

Regional Employment Total

Regional Share

National

Employment

Total

Regional

Employment

Total


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Shift-Share & Two-waySectoral Projection

National Structural Change 1982-2004

Manufacturing

(Down: 20 % to 12 %)

Professional Service

(Up: 8.5 % to 12 %)

Education & Health

(Up: 8 % to 12 %)

Government

(Down: 18 % to 16 %)


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Shift-Share & Two-waySectoral Projection

Regional Variation of Structure 1990-2004

Manufacturing

(Down: -0.2 % to -1.4 %)

Professional Service

(Up: 2.6 % to 3.4 %)

Education & Health

(Down: -6 % to -5 %)

Government

(Down: -4 % to -4.2 %)


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Regional

Employment

Projection

National Employment Total

Trend of Regional

Total Share

Regional Employment Total

Trend of Regional

Sector Share

Regional Employment By Sector

Municipal

Employment

Location

Trend of Municipal

Total Share

Total Municipal Employment

Trend of Municipal

Sectoral Share

Municipal Employment By Sector


Land use model allocation to traffic analysis zones

Land Use ModelAllocation to Traffic Analysis Zones

November 2005

MAPC


Land use model allocation to traffic analysis zones1
Land Use ModelAllocation to Traffic Analysis Zones

Population/Housing Units

  • Three components of Housing Unit Growth

    • Greenfield Development

    • Densification

    • Community Comments

  • Housing unit estimates are scaled to meet the projected housing unit demand, based on population and household size.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelHousing Unit Development

Greenfield Development

  • Rate of new residential land is based on land consumption rate from 1971-1999.

  • Buildable land excludes permanently protected open space, wetlands, commercial/industrial zones, and built land.

  • Housing development occurs at the density allowed by underlying zoning, with a 10% discount for roads and unbuildable areas.

  • Not more than 80% of remaining buildable units can be constructed in any one decade.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelHousing Unit Development

Densification

  • “Densification Factor” calculated for each community, based on increase in housing units per acre of developed land, 1970-2000.

  • Multiplied by the square of the Buildout Factor so that densification is focused in those TAZs that are closer to buildout.

  • Multiplied by the amount of developed land to yield number of densification units.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelHousing Unit Development

Community Comments

  • Some community comments indicated specific numbers of units for specific TAZs.

  • Where a range was given, MAPC usually used the low end of the range and paced multi-decade developments conservatively.

  • If specific numbers of units were not indicated, substituted 5% of total housing unit demand.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelHousing Unit Development

Scaling

  • Preliminary housing unit projections (Greenfield and Densification) were summed across all TAZs in community.

  • Community Comment units not subject to scaling.

  • (Total HU demand – community comment units) ÷ preliminary housing unit projections = scale factor.

  • Scale factor applied to preliminary HU projections for each TAZ; add community comment units to yield Adjusted Total Housing Units.

  • Adjusted Total Housing Units assumed to have the same Greenfield-Densification proportions as Preliminary HU projections.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelHousing Unit Development

Community Comment Units

Housing Unit Demand

Adjusted Housing Unit Total

“Preliminary Housing Units"

40%

40%

Densification Units

60%

60%

Greenfield Units


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelEconomic Development

TAZ-level Employment Projections

  • Rate of new commercial/industrial/urban open land is based on land conversion rate 1985-1999.

  • Buildable land excludes wetlands, protected open space, residential zones, built areas. Discounted by 10% to allow for roads and unbuildable areas.

  • Job Densification factor: increase in employees per acre of commercial/industrial/urban open land per decade.

  • Initial total employment is a function of Total C/I/UO land times new Job Density.


Framework for phase 2 modeling

Land Use ModelEconomic Development

Sectoral Allocations

  • Initial total employment is multiplied by previous decade’s sectoral proportions to yield initial sectoral employment.

  • Initial sectoral employment summed across all TAZ’s and compared to projected community-level sectoral employment to yield a scale factor.

  • Initial sectoral employment scaled accordingly.

  • Adjusted employment for all sectors summed to yield adjusted total employment for TAZ.