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Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the Big Wood Basin in 2006 (plus a look forward at 2007…). A Project for the Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory. Contributors. University of Idaho, Dept. of Geography: Troy R. Blandford, M.S. in 2006 Brian J. Harshburger, PhD Candidate

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slide1

Medium-range Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the Big Wood Basin in 2006(plus a look forward at 2007…)

A Project for the

Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory

slide2

Contributors

University of Idaho, Dept. of Geography:

Troy R. Blandford, M.S. in 2006

Brian J. Harshburger, PhD Candidate

Karen S. Humes, Associate Professor

Brandon C. Moore, M.S. in 2006

Von P. Walden, Associate Professor

Idaho National Laboratory (INL):

Ryan Hruska, Senior Engineer/Scientist

slide3

SnowmeltRunoffModel

  • SRM is a semi-distributed, temperature index (degree-day) model designed to simulate and forecast streamflow in snowmelt-dominated (mountainous) basins.
    • Model inputs:
      • Current temperature and precipitation from SNOTEL sites
      • Snow-covered Area
        • Derived from MODIS images
          • INL (Ryan Hruska)
          • NSIDC (Tom Painter)
      • Forecasted Temperatures
        • Medium-range, 15-day from NCEP GFS (downscaled to SNOTEL sites)
        • Short-range, 7-day from NDFD (4 day - precipitation)
    • Temporal resolution: daily
downscaling of met forecasts
Downscaling of Met Forecasts
  • Example of downscaling of four NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) grid points (large yellow dots) to individual SNOTEL station locations (small black dots)

Clark and Hay, (2004)

slide6

SRMEnhancements

  • The use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures (Tcritmax and Tcritmin) to partition precipitation into rain, snow, and rain/snow mixed.
    • model currently uses a single critical temperature value
  • The use of an antecedent temperature index (ATI) method to track snowpack cold-content and account for the delay in melt associated with diurnal refreezing.
    • used to determine when the snowpack is ripe
    • also to determine when the rain falling on the snowpack should contribute to the runoff
slide7

Forecasted Inputs

15 Day

Downscaled Temperature Forecasts

(Tmax, Tmin)

Global Forecasting System

NCEP

15 Day

Downscaled Precipitation Forecasts

Global Forecasting System

NCEP

Model Updating

(Day n-1)

Schaake Shuffle

(reorder the ensembles)

Observed Temperature

(Tmax, Tmin)

SNOTEL, NRCS

Obtained 1 day after measured

Snow-covered Area (SCA)

(Obtained from

snow depletion curves)

Enhanced version of SRM

Observed Precipitation

SNOTEL, NRCS

Obtained 1 day after measured

Model Parameters

(Retrospective Analysis)

Observed Streamflow

USGS

Obtained 1 day after measured

Snow Depth and SWE observations

SNOTEL, NRCS

(monitor degree-day factors)

Ensemble Streamflow

Forecasts

SRMEnhancements

Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts

slide8

StudyArea for 2006

Big Wood River Basin

Stream Gauge: Hailey, ID

Contributing Area: 1,625 km2

Elevation Range: 250-3,630 m

location of SNOTEL sites

slide9

RetrospectiveForecastResults(2002)

Coefficient of Determination (R2)

Mean Absolute Error (cms)

Mean Bias Error (cms)

slide10

RetrospectiveForecastResults(2003)

Coefficient of Determination (R2)

Mean Absolute Error (cm)

Mean Bias Error (cm)

slide11

RetrospectiveForecastResults(2004)

Coefficient of Determination (R2)

Mean Absolute Error (cm)

Mean Bias Error (cm)

real time forecasting in 200613
Real-time Forecasting in 2006
  • SRM correctly forecasted the timing of the peak discharge (May 22, 2006) out 6 days in advance.
    • Early by 1 day at a lead time of 7 days and 2 days at 10 days
  • The magnitude of the peak was slightly under-predicted for all of the lead-times illustrated here.
  • The forecasts of the secondary peak, which occurred in early June, require further investigation and may be due to errors in the input data (i.e. snow covered area).
  • The timing of the forecasts are off (timing of smaller peaks) during the early and late portions of the snowmelt season.
    • May be due to time lag between snowmelt and precipitation events and the resulting stream discharge
preparation for 2007
Preparation for 2007
  • Create a decision support system for interested parties that is
    • Easy to use
    • Accurate
  • Intention is to create tools for many basins, not just a single basin, for end-users (NRCS, COE)
    • UI training session on basin disaggregation and how to process snow-cover images (snow-covered area)
preparation for 200715
Preparation for 2007
  • Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
preparation for 200720
Preparation for 2007
  • Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
  • Additional basins
potential new basins for fy07
Potential New Basins for FY07
  • North Fork of the Clearwater
  • St. Joe River
  • Big Lost River
  • Little Wood River
  • Fisher River (Montana)
  • South Fork of the Flathead (Montana)
  • And perhaps basins in Washington and Oregon as well
preparation for 200722
Preparation for 2007
  • Automation - Improved tools for ArcGIS
  • Additional basins
  • Ensemble and Single-value (like 2006) forecasting
  • Downscaling of global climate model output for simulation of future stream flow conditions in the PNW