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Advances in IFS Coupling with Dynamics for Mesoscale Convection

Explore the latest developments in the coupling of IFS with dynamics for mesoscale convection, including nighttime convection, advection of mesoscale systems, and revision of the convective boundary-layer. Improve the representation of shallow and congestus convection, address biases in weather forecasts, and enhance the performance of the IFS model.

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Advances in IFS Coupling with Dynamics for Mesoscale Convection

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  1. Still some convection developments in the IFS Coupling with Dynamics with Sylvie Malardel Nighttime convection and Advection of mesoscale systems with Tobias Becker Convective Boundary-layer revision with MaikeAhlgrimm, Richard Forbes, Irina Sandu, Philippe Lopez Peter Bechtold European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  2. The TOA Swnet and the effect of revised convective mixed phase (average good but..) (shallow+congestus) • Cu too reflective • Sc not enough (lack of liq water) • Dry bias West Pacific DJF SST change Li et al. JGR 2013 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  3. qt frequency shallow [0-1] Revision of the convective cloudy boundary-layer • No iteration of vertical diffusion scheme, No statistical cloud scheme, • Same test parcel for convective boundary-layer height as in convection • Rewritten diffusion momentum solver • Shallow convection does moist transport, improved stability of shallow convection for Stratocumulus (mass fluxes) • Consistent coupling to cloud scheme through detrainment and subsidence terms • Revised and sequential cloud saturation adjustment (no double call of cloud scheme) • 6% faster IFS Kdiff Rad Kdiff Sc Kdiff Mdry MCu Use inversion strength –Pascal Marquet moist static energy European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  4. The MAGICS ship transect Comparing Obs, LES and 3D IFS California Hawaii European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  5. Clouds in coupled climate simulations European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  6. Mesoscale convective systems, their propagation and the diurnal cycle Figure: Sequence of Meteosat 10 infrared and TRMM rainfall radar sequences over Sahel and reforecast for 8 Aug 2017 at 4 km with and without deep convection parametrization mm/3h European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  7. August 2017 Ensemble representation SPP see Ollinaho et al. QJRMS 2017 Figure: Pdf of perturbed convection parameters and standard deviation (spred) of total precipitation during August from 15-member ensemble runs mm/3h European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  8. Lightning and the diurnal cycle Figure: The lightning product has been developed by P. Lopez (MWR 2019) and uses the CAPE, frozen water content and cloud base height from the convection European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  9. Direct convection-dynamics coupling via mass flux divergence European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Malardel and Bechtold, QJRMS 2019

  10. Direct convection-dynamics coupling: change in q-tendencies (K/day) Dynamics Convection K/day K/day Difference European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  11. Direct convection-dynamics coupling: squall line on small Planet dx=2 km Convection permitting Param Param+coupling European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  12. Precipitation verification against Synop observations: 4 km, 9 km August 2016 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  13. CAPE and CIN before and after precipitation Tobias Becker European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  14. Precipitation and propagation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  15. Conclusions • Revision of convective PBL (3 years), hopefully operational post-Bologna 2020/2021 • Start working on TKE (Mete France, KNMI) to get more energetic constraint on diffusion coefficients • Physics-dynamics coupling difficult and likely less important for systematic convection (heating) errors • At 4 km neither convection permitting nor parametrized is ideal • Continue working on night-time underestimation of convection and advection • West Pacific dry bias in coupled mode European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  16. Mesoscale convective systems, their propagation and the diurnal cycle Figure: Sequence of Meteosat 10 infrared and TRMM rainfall radar sequences over Sahel and reforecast for 8 Aug 2017 at 4 km with and without deep convection parametrization mm/3h European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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