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African regional Implementation Workshop ( Dakar,Senegal 26-27 Sept. 2012). Genene . Mulugeta ICSU-ROA HD Coordinator. ICSU-ROA Hazards and Disaster Research Activities. -ICSU-ROA Science Plan published in 2007
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African regional Implementation Workshop (Dakar,Senegal 26-27 Sept. 2012) Genene. Mulugeta ICSU-ROA HD Coordinator
ICSU-ROA Hazards and Disaster Research Activities -ICSU-ROA Science Plan published in 2007 -Since 2009 Research proposals are being developed on geo-and hydromet, hazards. -So far no funding to implement the proposals -New direction essential to revitalize the science plan.
Scoping workshop to revitalize the science plan. Pretoria 22-23 March 2012 Outcomes -Geohazard & Hydromet. Hazardgroupsmergedto form a consortium. -Plan to hold regular yearly workshops to advance integrated research on disaster risk. -Publish a book on Hazards and Disasters in SSA
Global-Regional Integration workshopKuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 13-14 Sept. 2012 Strengthening high-quality research in the regions and integrating regional and global research activities Enhancing research capacity in developing countries; and Ensuring that there are policy impacts Overall agreement on harmonizing the regional-global issues on hazards and disasters.
Hazards Sub Saharan Africa 85 Drought Epidemics Floods Storms Geophysical
Geohazard Research Proposals • 1: Assessing and mitigating the seismic hazards in Africa (R. Durrheim, CH. Hartnady, A.Kijko 2: Volcanic Hazards (S. Ayonghe) • 3: Land Slide Hazards (K. Woldearegay) • 4: Pollution and Coastal Hazards (E. Antia)
Seismic Hazards: Research Challenges • -Seismo-tectonic maps are Inadequate • Lack of Integrated Seismic Hazard Assessment of vulnerable areas (e.g. major African cities) • -Networks sparse, lack of capacity to maintain networks, analyze and interpret. • -Lack of Appropriate building codes
SEISMIC HAZARDS The seismic hazard proposal aims at understanding and managing risks Associated with seismic hazards. The map below is produced as part of GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project) by East and Southern Africa Regional Seismology Working Group. The map shows the degree of earthquake shaking as peak ground acceleration (PGA) during the next 50 yrs with 10% probability Such maps are important to assess seismic risks when building dams, pipelines or airports,. Mozambique Date-Feb.22. 2006 Magnitude-7 6 deaths, 26 houses destroyed DRC/RWANDA Date-Feb.3 2008 Magnitude-6 47 dead,750 injured,1500 buildings destroyed Tanzania July 11. 2008 Magnitude-4.4 Location-120 Km NW of Arusha 7
Assessing and mitigating the earthquake hazard in Africa Research Tasks • Task 1: Compile African Catalogue of Earthquakes • Task 2: Prepare a Seismotectonic Map of Africa • Task 3: Assess the Seismic Hazard of the African continent • Task 4: Carry out an Integrated Seismic Hazard Assessment of vulnerable areas (e.g. major African cities, critical lifeline infrastructure)
Task 1: African Catalogue of Earthquakes • Current African earthquake catalogues are incomplete,limiting the accuracy of seismic hazards. • Make inventory of existing seismic catalogues. • Set up task teams to review catalogues and harmonize data. • Publish and disseminate the homogenised seismic catalogues
Task 2: Seismotectonic Map of Africa • Produce an up to date seismo-tectonic map of Africa, to replace old maps e.g. the1:5 000 000Tectonic Map of Africa, UNESCO 1968. SeTMA project, East and Southern Africa Regional Seismology Working Group.
Task 3: Assess the Seismic Hazard of the African continent • Build on the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, 1992) by: • 1. Improving the basic seismic data. • 2. Carrying out a parametric-historic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) which does not require accurately defined seismogenic zones. • Build partnership with GEM for training students and designing training courses
Task 4: Integrated Seismic Hazard Assessment of vulnerable areas (e.g. major African cities) • build capacity for integrated seismic hazard assessment of vulnerable areas, e.g cities, dams. • provide decision support tools to development agencies and policy makers • Establish a pool of broadband seismographs. • Train seismologists and technicians to deploy and maintain field stations
Volcanic Hazards Research Challenges -lack of methods for monitoring the active volcanoes, using appropriate Remote Sensing (RS) techniques, and ground-truthing studies. -Lack of assessment and document-ation of periodicities and impacts of CO2 outgassing from crater lakes -Lack of hazard zonation maps – Lack of public awareness on volcanic hazards
Volcanic Hazards Africa has about 140 volcanoes which have erupted during last 10,000 years, 25 are active (erupted during historic time ca. 500 years). Most disastrous eruptions: • Mt Nyirangogo (DRC), which last erupted in 2002, killed 147 people and destroyed Goma. • Eruptio of Mt Karthala, Komoros (2006) led to evacuation of >3000 people. • Mt Nyamuragina (DRC) erupted in 1995 and 2000. • Mt OldoinoLengai (Tanzania) erupted in 1994, 2006, 2007. • La Fournaise (La Reunion) continuously active • Cameroon crater lakes 1876 people killed in 1986, as well as numerous cattle and other animals (Lake Nyos); Lake Monoun, 37 deaths • . • .
The Volcanic hazards proposal aims to Monitor Hazards from Volcanoes and Explosive Crater Lakes Tasks: • Design methods of monitoring the active volcanoes especially those with high population densities on their flanks, using appropriate Remote Sensing (RS) techniques, and relevant ground-truthing studies. • Assess and document the locations and periodicities and impacts of CO2 outgassing from crater lakes within volcanically active regions • Establish structural and morphological links between such crater lakes and nearby active volcanoes where appropriate. • Develop volcanic hazard zonation maps • conceive appropriate approaches of education and raising of public awareness for the communities exposed to these hazards.
Mitigation measures Oku Volcanic Field, Cameroon Degassing L.Nyos On 26 August 1986 an enormous volume of carbon dioxide (CO2) was released from Lake Nyos that killed about 1876 people. Two years earlier in Lake Monoun there was a smaller release of CO2 that killed 37 people.
LandslideHazards Landslides constitute a major geologic hazard in SSA because they impact almost all countries, Landslides commonly occur in connection with other major natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, and floods. The primary objective of the proposal) is to reduce long-term losses from landslide hazards by improving our understanding of the causes of landslides and suggesting mitigation strategies.
Landslide Hazard Proposal Research Challenges Ethiopia Source-kifle -Few research centers addresslandslidehazards -Lack ofpolicies and guidelines for landslide management Lack ofcomprehensivelandslide research Lack of regional landslideforecasting and monitoring Almost all countries impacted
Landslide Hazards Research Tasks • Task 1: Establish research centers • Task 2: Developpolicies and guidelines for landslide management • Task 3: Initiatecomprehensivelandslidemapping and loss assessment • Task 4: Initiatecomprehensivelandslide research • Task 5: Initiate and promote regional landslideforecasting and monitoring
Coastal hazards Coastal erosion is a major environmental issue in Sub-Saharan Africa. and has serious implications on the entire national economies. Due to a concentration and increase of population and economic activities in the coastal zone in general and particularly in the vicinity of the shores, the coastal zone is highly vulnerable to many types of environmental degradation, including the threat of global warming that will induce sea level rise.
Coastal hazards Proposal Propose to develop 3 Tasks • Task 1: Coastal Erosion Assessment and Abatement Modalities along Sub-Sahara Africa • Task 2: Coastal Area Vulnerability to Climate Change-Enhanced Eustatic Sea Level Rise and Viable Adaptation • Task 3:Coastal Pollution and Prediction along Sub-Sahara Africa