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A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook. Presented by Dr Chris Caton. August 2010. Financial Market Forecasts. The Australian Dollar and US Trade Weighted Index. Index. AUD/USD. AUD/USD (RHS). US TWI inverted (LHS). Source: Datastream. Australian Sharemarket Performance – ASX200.

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A Global Economic and Market Outlook

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  1. A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton August 2010

  2. Financial Market Forecasts

  3. The Australian Dollar and US Trade Weighted Index Index AUD/USD AUD/USD (RHS) US TWI inverted (LHS) Source: Datastream

  4. Australian Sharemarket Performance – ASX200 Source: Bloomberg

  5. As a result of the recent correction the Australian market is again cheap (forward P/E ratio)

  6. Recoveries from “big ugly bears”

  7. Australian shares still look to be good value

  8. US Housing starts are bumping along the bottom (Millions) Source: Datastream

  9. US Employment is looking better 3mth / 3mth chg(%) Source: Datastream

  10. 2010 Growth Forecasts (%) Month of Forecast Source: Consensus Economics

  11. Real GDP growth in Australia and the US Year to % change Source: Datastream

  12. Retail trade was so much stronger here, but has been weak lately Index Sources: ABS, Census.gov, July 2010; US figures exclude spending on autos and at “gas stations”

  13. Export growth *(volume, %change, 9 months to June quarter 2009)

  14. Our exports to China

  15. The Labour market is on the mend 000’s % Employment (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS) Source: ABS

  16. Western Australian employment growth has been solid

  17. Australian Inflation % BT Forecasts GST Effect Source: ABS

  18. Interest payments as a share of after-tax household income (%)

  19. House Prices - Australia v Perth Index (1987 = 100) Source: ABS

  20. Another look at house prices (in thousands!)

  21. Gross Domestic Product % BTForecasts GST Effect Source: ABS

  22. Global Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2010-2020) Source: Consensus Economics

  23. Asia-Pacific Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2010-2020) Source: Consensus Economics

  24. Morgan Stanley Capital Indexes Developed Index Asian Emerging Markets Index Asian Emerging Markets Index (RHS) World Developed Index (LHS) Source: Datastream

  25. Summary • The global economic recovery continues, with the US and Emerging Asia doing better than Europe. The threat of a double dip has been exaggerated. • Rates will probably rise further. • The exchange rate is above fair value. • Shares should increase in value.

  26. This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)

  27. Small business variable lending rates

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