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Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101. Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical. Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne. Ian Plimer. Constant cyclical climate change.

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Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101

Human-induced climate change

Why I am sceptical

Professor of Geology, University of AdelaideEmeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

Ian Plimer

is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented
Is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented?

6

4

2

0

Today

Temperature (°C)

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

400

300

200

100

0

Time – Thousands of Years Before Present

temperature
Temperature

Location, location, location…..

urban heat island effect
Urban heat island effect

23.5

Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)

22.0

Annual Mean

Temperature (°F)

20.0

18.5

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

what is really measured
What is really measured?

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

Temperature Trend per Decade

1940 - 1996 (°C)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

Population of Country

reliability of surface measurements
Reliability of surface measurements

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5

-0.5

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

The 28 years of high quality satellite data

Global

Northern Hemisphere

Temperature Variation (°C)

Southern Hemisphere

The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,

The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly

models for atmospheric temperature
Models for atmospheric temperature

10

10

10

10

NASA/NSIPP

GFDL

50

50

50

50

100

100

100

100

200

200

200

200

300

300

300

300

500

500

500

500

700

700

700

700

950

950

950

950

60°S

60°S

60°S

60°S

30°S

30°S

30°S

30°S

EQ

EQ

EQ

EQ

30°N

30°N

30°N

30°N

60°N

60°N

60°N

60°N

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

SNU

NASA/GEOS5

Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),

as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)

radiosonde measurements
Radiosonde measurements

25

24

50

20

100

16

12

200

300

8

500

4

700

1000

75°N

45°N

30°N

15°N

EQ

15°S

30°S

45°S

75°S

No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality

hPa

Km

Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E

we ll all be rooned
We’ll all be rooned

2000

1500

1000

500

0

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Measurement of historic sea levels

Port Pirie

-0.3mm/yr

2.4mm/yr

Port Adelaide Outer Harbour

Fort Denison

1.0mm/yr

Sea Level (mm)

1.4mm/yr

Fremantle

Southern Oscillation Index

Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)

smoothing of ice core co 2 data why pre industrial choice of 280ppm
Smoothing of ice core CO2 data- why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm?

from 1958 Mauna Loa

CO2 5 year average

Ice core Antarctica

450

400

350

300

270

1810

1850

1900

1950

1970

1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement

CO2 (ppmv)

Year

water main greenhouse gas driver of co 2
Water: Main greenhouse gas & driver of CO2

100%

0.001%

Man made

Natural

80%

60%

40%

20%

0.117%

0.066%

0.047%

0.047%

0%

Water

Vapour

CO2

Methane

N2O

Misc

Gases

doubling co 2 at 385ppm has no effect
Doubling CO2 at 385ppmhas no effect

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Temperature (°C)

Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm

submarine volcanicity
Submarine volcanicity

45°30’N

Recent

Eruptions

45°00’N

44°30’N

130°30’W

130°00’W

  • Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815)
  • Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges)
    • 10,000 km3/a of cooling water
    • >95% Earth’s volcanoes

Megaplume 2

Megaplume 1

Seafloor Spreading

greenland ice sheet
Greenland ice sheet

d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994

10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)

80°N

-30°

-32°

-34°

-36°

-38°

75°N

-40°

20°W

-42°

80°W

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1960

1975

1980

1985

70°N

30°W

-29.5

-30

-30.5

65°N

-31

-31.5

-32

60°N

-32.5

1000

800

600

400

200

100

40°W

70°W

50°W

60°W

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

30

-30

5.4cm/yr

increase*

Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr

Year

Time – Years Before Present

*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003

is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice no
Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice? NO!

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

30°W

30°E

-1.0

Antarctic

Peninsula

1978

1990

2000

2006

60°W

60°E

-1.5

90°W

Amundsen

Sea

120°W

120°E

Kamb

Ice Stream

150°W

2000 Km

150°E

180°

Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

…. going up!

Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre

Year

Antarctic Land Ice Trends

…. going up over most

of the continent!

Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.

temperature proxy
Temperature proxy

4

2

0

-2

-4

280

-6

260

-8

240

220

1.5

200

1.0

0.5

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

H2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature

Temperature (°C)

CO2 (ppmv)

Dust (ppm)

Thousands of Years Ago

temperature proxy1
Temperature proxy

100

80

60

40

20

0

10,000BC

8,000BC

6,000BC

4,000BC

2,000BC

1AD

2000AD

-30

Modern

Maximum

Medieval

Maximum

-20

Dalton

Minimum

-10

Spörer

Minimum

Maunder

Minimum

Temperature (°C)

0

Oort

Minimum

10

Wolf

Minimum

20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Calendar Years Before Present

Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)

it s easy to stop climate change all we have to do is
It’s easy to stop climate change - All we have to do is:
  • STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do
  • STOP ocean currents changing
  • STOP plate tectonics and continent movement
  • STOP orbital changes to Earth
  • STOP variations in energy released from Sun
  • STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy
  • STOP supernoval eruptions
    • When we’ve stopped these natural processes,
    • if human-induced then:
  • PERSUADE China and India to stay poor
a few little problems
A few little problems

Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)

Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)

Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots

Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years

Greater past variability and changes

Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now

Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)