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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 28th- 29th September 2006 Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: some results from a survey in Europe Monica Cariola National Research Council of Italy

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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

28th- 29th September 2006

Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: some results from a survey in Europe

Monica Cariola

National Research Council of Italy

CerisCNR

Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth


INTRODUCTION Technology Analysis (FTA)

This work analyses the main results of one of the basic tasks on FTA activities of the European project “iMERA (implementing the Metrology European Research Area)” started in 2005, a 3-year project funded by the European Commission within the ERA-NET scheme

Main purpose of iMERA

to enable National Governments to increase the National and European impact of their research investments in Metrology


Within the iMERA Project Technology Analysis (FTA)

A specific task is aimed to provide an evaluation of :

  • the processes of metrology and technology foresight in Europe

  • their impact on the national programmes for long term planning of metrological activities


Purpose Technology Analysis (FTA)

to set the grounds for the post-iMERA institutions, to create a common European Foresight in order to harmonise procedures and results

….even if National Foresights can still survive


FORESIGHT Technology Analysis (FTA)

NMIs

(National Metrology Institutes )

Government

Stakeholders

Before iMERA Project

National Level

EUROMET


Post - iMERA Technology Analysis (FTA)

National Level

National Level

National Level

National Level

Government

Government

Government

Government

NMIs

NMIs

NMIs

NMIs

FORESIGHT

FORESIGHT

FORESIGHT

FORESIGHT

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

European Foresight

EUROMET


1° STEP Technology Analysis (FTA)

a Surveyonnational foresight processes on Metrology R&D in European Countries


Some data on the survey Technology Analysis (FTA)

  • Questionnaire sent on July 2005 to all EUROMET members

  • Responses from 19 countries (58%): 14 partners, 5 non-partners iMERA

  • Metrology foresight studies/processes in their Country (as declared):

  • Yes14 (74% of respondents)

  • No3 (16%)

  • No, but.. 2 (10%)


Questionnaire structure Technology Analysis (FTA)

  • Part A:general questions focusing on Metrology Foresight (type a1), but listing also other relevant studies useful for long term planning (type a2) -Answers from all respondent Countries

  • Part B:specific questions related to metrology foresight (type a1) - (one questionnaire for each study listed in Part A),ranging from 1 to 7 studies per Country

  • Part C:specific questions related to other foresight studies (type a3) - Answers from 9 countries



Methods used in Foresight Country (as declared)

(from I.Miles, M.Keenan)

Group Method

1.Identifying Issues a. Environmental Scanning

b. SWOT Analysis

c. Issue Surveys

2.Extrapolative Approaches a. Trend Extrapolation

b. Simulation Modelling

c. Genius Forecasting

d. Delphi

3.Creative Approaches a. Brainstorming

b. Expert Panels

c. Cross‑Impact Analysis

d. Scenarios

4.Prioritisation a. Critical (and Key) Technologies

b. Technology Roadmapping


Part A - FTA relevant for metrology Country (as declared)

Methodologies more used to assess needs arising from:

  • Industrial/societal Developments

1. Environmental Scanning (88%), mainly through of stakeholders, CIPM studies and Other Foresight studies

2. Expert Panels (56%)

New areas

1. Environmental Scanning (73%), mainly through Consultation of stakeholders and other foresight studies from industrial sectors

2. Genius Forecasting (46%)

Longer term work on the SI

1. Environmental Scanning (62%), mainly through CIPM studies

2. Genius Forecasting (46%).


Part B: Specific Metrology Foresight studies Country (as declared)

  • NMIs participation in most of cases (80%)

  • Extent: mainly National (72%)

  • Time horizon: mainly 3-5 years (52%), 6-10 yrs. (44%)

  • Scope: mainly General (56%), then by EUROMET TC

  • Promotion: mainly by Government/Ministry (44%), then National Metrology organisation (40%)

  • Methodologies:

    Environmental Scanning (57%)

    Expert Panels (48%)

    Brainstorming (44%)

    Genius Forecasting (35%)

  • Frequency: periodical/one-off (44% both); 0-3 years ago (72%)

  • Outcomes: mainly Papers/Reports (85%), workshops (44%)



Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (1) of NMIs

  • Use of Foresight Outcomes for planning NMI activity:

    Not very much (30%)

    Very much and Sufficiently (both 22%)

  • Modification of NMI previous plans after Foresight:

    Not very much (41%)

    Sufficiently (30 %)

  • Use of Foresight Outcomes for national Prioritisation

    Yes, 81%

  • New scientific co-operations thanks to Foresight:

    Sufficiently (36 %)

    Not very much (32%)

  • Co-operations in new areas thanks to Foresight

    Not very much (32%)

    Sufficiently and Much (both 27 %)


Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (2) of NMIs

  • Foresight helpfulness for development of metrology in general

    Sufficiently (44 %)

    Not very much (26%)

  • Foresight helpfulness for development of specific metrology fields

    Much (44 %)

    Sufficiently (26%)

  • Foresight helpfulness for the policy maker

    Much (30 %)

    Sufficiently (26%)


Tentative classification of the reported foresight studies of NMIs

  • “True” foresight studies -17 from 11 countries (ranging from 1 to 4 per country)

  • Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs -10 from 6 countries (ranging from 1 to 3 per country)

  • Market/Customer surveys -3 from 2 countries

  • Other foresight studies -12 from 8 countries

  • Specific research projects/feasibility studies -19 from one country

  • Not classifiable in previous categories -10 from 3 countries


Some conclusions of NMIs

  • Large variety of national foresight processes

  • Many reported studies have the characteristics of Forecasting and Strategic Planning rather than of formal Foresight exercises

  • The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged learning effect

  • Central role of NMI motivated experts, but occasion for NMIs to increase their opening outwards


The Need for a joint European Metrology Foresight is confirmed

but has to be improved….

internal knowledge of foresight processes

their impact on R&D programmes

most effective way to conduct FTA

networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and Governments, inside and outside the Countries


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