Automatic tool for policy simulation scenarios in agricultural products liberalization
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Automatic Tool for Policy Simulation Scenarios in Agricultural products liberalization. Dr. Rafael de Arce and Dr. Ramón Mahía Professors in Econometrics UAM. July, 28th 2005. Project Objectives.

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Automatic tool for policy simulation scenarios in agricultural products liberalization

Automatic Tool for Policy Simulation Scenarios in Agricultural products liberalization

Dr. Rafael de Arce and Dr. Ramón Mahía

Professors in Econometrics UAM

July, 28th 2005


Project objectives
Project Objectives Agricultural products liberalization

  • Political and entrepreneurships decisions: building a benchmark simulator for more efficient alternatives

  • Academical robustness and Automatic tool for the evaluation of policy alternatives

  • Studies to be used in a real context:

    • One product

    • Quantitative and Qualitative considerations

  • Bilateral outlook (“two sea-lands view”)

  • Equivalent Tariff: key issue in political negotiations


World tomato market production
World tomato market: production Agricultural products liberalization

  • 100 Mt per year

  • China:21,8%

  • Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Greece: 14%

  • Morocco: 1%


Yield of tomato harvested area
Yield of Tomato Harvested Area Agricultural products liberalization


World tomato market analysis prices
World tomato market analysis: prices Agricultural products liberalization


World tomato market international flows
World tomato market: international flows Agricultural products liberalization


World tomato market distribution
World tomato market: distribution Agricultural products liberalization

  • Integrated chain: 60%

    • 60-85% Germany, France, Switzerland

    • 45% Spain, Italy, Greece

  • Market changes:

    • Market power

    • Asymmetrical relationship

    • Prices down-pressure

    • Few demanders for a lot of suppliers


Price implications in international trade between eu and morocco
Price implications in international trade between EU and Morocco

  • Exports-price elasticity estimation: 0.78

  • Equivalent tariff-only estimation: price gap method


Tomato exports increase in morocco
Tomato exports increase in Morocco: Morocco

  • Evidence about production output gap

  • Market substitution of EU suppliers

  • Effects in revenues and employment in Morocco


Substitution and output gap
Substitution and output gap Morocco

With a proper investment effort, the Moroccan production could be three times the current one. The seasonal market share of Spain and Morocco implies a potential friction of both suppliers.



Some policy considerations
Some policy considerations Morocco

  • Poverty reduction in agricultural population

  • Migration policies implications

  • Compensation measures in “losers countries”

  • Quality requirements in EU

  • Distribution Chains ownership: added value benefits